I was wrong

[Buddy]

I wish we could all go back and look at the uproar over the Brady Quinn /Ted Ginn pick years ago. Had to believe 90% wanted Quinn in that spot(including me) and Quinn turned out to be NOTHING in this league. Ginn was not the right pick for us I believed but turned out to be a much better player than Quinn

I was pissed that the Dolphins didn't draft Brady Quinn and I was definitely wrong.

 

[xXwarXx]

Everette Brown was a big swing and a miss for me. I thought he would be an elite pass rusher...Sawing and a miss

I remember that draft, Everyone wanted pass rushers in that 2009 draft because of how NY won there SB, and a lot of bad pass rushers shot up the boards because teams reached hard for them.

Brown, Larry English, Clint Sintim, bunch of nobodies.

 

[hoops]

My favorite miss to date is Derrick Sherrod. I don't know how much of the blame to place on injuries, but he was my favorite LT prospect that season, and I thought GB stole him at 32.

No kidding when he plays he's every bit Dallas thomas bad maybe worse...he should be cut from the league soon that's how bad that guy is

 

[ChambersWI]

I was pissed that the Dolphins didn't draft Brady Quinn and I was definitely wrong.

At the time, I felt there was no way you could pass on Quinn if he fell to you. Then after he went to Cleveland you started hearing stories about he was only interested in working out and looking good rather than being good, and how he had a bit of an attitude issue with fans that made you glad we didn't get him.

Similar thing with Vernon Gholston. One of only 2 guys to get a sack on Jake Long his final year at Ohio State, and looked like a freak. I remember reading scouting reports (even posted them here) about how scouts felt he would be a bust because he was more worried about looking good than being good. THe report had one scout say at the OSU pro day he went to Gholston and said "You could be the best pass rusher in the league but you won't because you don't care, you'll be out of the league in 3 years" and Gholston wasn't bothered by the comment at all.

 

[studsatele]

I said the Patriots were foolish to choose Brady over Bledsoe. Duhyeee!

 

[Retnuhrace]

Let me go through some from each draft, starting with 2007.

2007: Thought Dwayne Jarrett was a stud steal for the Panthers in the 2nd round.

2008: Thought Matt Ryan was going to be a bust due to throwing too many untimely interceptions, and thought we made the right pick with Jake Long. Also, a bonus homer projection that I whiffed on: I thought UCF RB Kevin Smith was going to be a stud. That's because I watched him run for #2 on the all time season yardage list my freshman year at UCF, and thought he had Emmit Smith-like vision. But injuries and the Detroit Lions doomed him.

2009: Thought Aaron Curry was going to be a 10-15 year starter (I'm sure most of us got that one wrong)

2010: I also fell for Mt. Cody and wanted the Dolphins to draft him despite the weight issues. He's still in the league though, but not all that impactful.

2011: I know he's been much maligned as of late, but I never in my wildest dreams expected Colin Kaepernick to have the kind of success that he had. I thought he was a pure college/system running QB. Never would I have thought that he'd be an NFL starter, let alone lead his team to a superbowl.

2012: Loved Justin Blackmon. I still think he has all the talent in the world but of course he has bigger issues. I thought that he could have helped tremendously in Blake Bortles' developement in Jacksonville.

2013: I too thought Manti Te'o would be a bust, due to what I saw in the national championship game.

2014: And yes, I too thought Kelvin Benjamin was going to be a big bust. I thought he just had size but was soft and didn't have any separation ability. I can't believe he became a successful #1 receiver for the Panthers, especially when defenses had nobody else to plan for.

 

[FearTheBeard]

I'd say last year I did my most homework, obviously to early to judge. But I loved Greg Robinson, thought he'd be an instant stud but I still think he'll turn into a solid player. Ka'Deem Carey I had a round 2 grade on, hard to judge behind Forte but didn't show well in preseason.

 

[xXwarXx]

I'd say last year I did my most homework, obviously to early to judge. But I loved Greg Robinson, thought he'd be an instant stud but I still think he'll turn into a solid player. Ka'Deem Carey I had a round 2 grade on, hard to judge behind Forte but didn't show well in preseason.

Ya today's pass rush is all about attacking the guards, Robinson just wasn't ready, I think he will be fine though.

Carey I was one of the few the wasn't high on him, everyone loved him, he's more flash than substance IMO, and measurables didn't lie either.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Carey I was one of the few the wasn't high on him, everyone loved him, he's more flash than substance IMO, and measurables didn't lie either.

Ya Carey's a good example of me not trusting my evaluating...didn't like him at first and perception shifted me a bit. Same with giving Lache Seastrunk a 3rd round grade...never liked his game, but never stopped hearing about him great athleticism...learning experience.

 

[PJack]

I'm in my 50s so I have the honor of being wrong countless times before many posters here were born.

Brutally wrong in both directions. I'm sure I don't remember some of the most blatant examples.

Let's see, the year we drafted Marino I loved a Notre Dame tight end named Tony Hunter. I was convinced he'd be a Hall of Famer. A year earlier I wrote in the USC student paper that Marcus Allen's 4.65 speed justified him being selected behind some back from Baylor, whose name I don't remember. He did go ahead of Marcus.

I've always enjoyed following he draft since I was a kid, and recalled the Baylor RB was Walter Abocrombie. Since I probably tread too much in Level 2 details (though I fight that as I age) I had to check as I swore I remember him going shortly after Allen but know a RB did go prior to Allen. Turns out two did. Darren Nelson and Gerald Riggs went 7 and 9. Marcus went 10 and Abocrombie went 12. Don't mean to nitpick...but figured I'd share. Amazing how the game has changed....7 running backs went in the first round that year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_NFL_draft

As far as being wrong (though I'm no guru), I liked Ryan Mallet a lot which has not gone anywhere. Thought Mark Barron was going to be a top 5 safety with poor early results. Definitely fooled by Richardson...still shocked by that guy but right now he's not even NFL worthy. I didn't love Ingram (I loved Julio Jones of that Bama pair) but thought he would do really well going to the Saints given having that built in passing attack already plugged in.

 

[xXwarXx]

Ya Carey's a good example of me not trusting my evaluating...didn't like him at first and perception shifted me a bit. Same with giving Lache Seastrunk a 3rd round grade...never liked his game, but never stopped hearing about him great athleticism...learning experience.

Yeah it's flashiness that wins ya over.

Corderelle Patterson almost got me, but than I reminded myself, that he absolutely sucks at all the fundamentals. People don't realize how hard it is to have to learn all that stuff on the fly while in the NFL. Almost Pointless to draft these guys imo, by the time there good it's contract time already.

I still believe Dion Jordan can be really good, but already 2 years in on him, projects cost a lot more than just a draft pick especially if you whiff.

 

[Sons Of Shula]

One more note regarding the post that confronted me in this thread. Sorry in advance for the duration. It reminded me somewhat of an experience I had more than 20 years ago in (naturally) Las Vegas:

Then, as now, I liked to give out some of my betting systems. Not the best ones. Effective ones. Late in the 1991 season I was guest handicapper on the Saturday night Stardust line, along with a guy who I had never met, representing a major sports service. He announced his NFL Play of the Year on that program...Packers the next day, giving 7 points hosting Indianapolis. It was a consensus pick around town. The Colts were awful, one of the truly inept NFL teams in recent decades, nearly preceding the 2008 Lions at 0-16.

Didn't matter. I had numerous angles pointing to the Colts. I announced that the Colts were my highest rated play that weekend. Some of the angles are ones I still use and have mentioned here: Packers were .500 or worse yet giving -6 or above at home. Colts were road underdog with a 25% or lower winning percentage. Green Bay was favorite despite very low rushing attempt numbers. Their coach Lindy Infante was notorious for not wanting to bore himself by running the football.

The other handicapper was miffed that anyone could like the Colts. I chuckled and said I don't like the Colts, I like opposing any team the caliber of the Packers giving 7 points. I'll take my chances. The next day the public was predictably all over the Packers. I ended up taking Indianapolis +8.

They fittingly played a low scoring pathetic game. Green Bay won but didn't cover. I collected. Big deal. Wasn't a particularly great day for me otherwise.

Little did I know that the other handicapper somehow became so upset at my themes from that show, and winning by opposing his best bet, that he carried the paranoia and bitterness forward. Far forward. It was ridiculous, like guys in this era who follow certain posters around and spread negative reputation whenever they can, or dislike posts. Whatever the available vehicle.

A month later that guy called the Stardust Line when I was on. He chastised me for driving an older car, while he just bought a new one thanks to a fantastic December. Well that's wonderful. Thanks for calling in to tell us. The west coast needed to know that. Yes, I drive an 8 year old Datsun. It's just reaching its prime. In a town of value, were you really dense enough to purchase a new car? The best car buying advice I ever heard is: Never own a car in the decade of its birth.

The Stardust audience loved that. He did not. You could hear the steam beyond the laughter.

In the middle of the 1992 season, the same guy called the show again. He pointed out that a betting system I gave out a year earlier was having a terrible stretch. The cohost was in disbelief, chastising the caller. Keep in mind I gave that cohost some of my systems long before I offered them on the air. He had bet them and knew how reliable they were. A short losing streak was mostly trivia.

I offer this to demonstrate how far some people will take it, when they are determined to unleash that bitterness. That handicapper had to fixate on that system throughout an offseason. He's desperate for it to fail...badly...so he can spotlight it in public, trying to make me look bad. Same with the Johnny Manziel angle. He had to play in 2014, otherwise those old posts of mine from (apparently) last spring carry no weight. Undetermined. Not only does Johnny have to play, he needs to flop. I was thrilled he did flop, once he somehow was identified to start that game against the Bengals. As I've posted countless times, rookie quarterbacks seldom disturb the scoreboard. I had the Bengals.

Little did I know that at least one poster here was scheming to condemn me after Manziel's misery, in that game and the subsequent one. It's like something from the Investigative Discovery Channel, one with a stalker angle. Not "Dangerous Women," or "Evil Women." We need a new title. Has to be either Bar Stool or Happy Adjuster in there somewhere. Maybe I need a poll.

Bar Stoolers expect a safe haven around here. That's the primary issue. It's inconceivable to them that a segment others won't happily agree and back slap. They have been Bar Stoolers all their lives. Surrounded by nothing but Bar Stoolers. On sites like this they are attracted to fellow Bar Stoolers. Everything works, from Marino would throw for 7000 yards in this era, to Andy Dalton sucks, to any and all adjustments in favor of Tannehill. That's how the Bar Stoolers come up with the 11-5 forecast for 2014, as my confronter did, and don't see it as out of ordinary. I don't want to place too much emphasis on that. I nailed 8-8 each of the past two years. It's eligible to reverse next season, with my forecast being 3 games off and his being exact. Over the run of time, I will be closer to correct. Bar Stoolers don't have any concept of burden, as I've posted many times. The 11-5 sounds cute so let's go with it. Disregard that a number like that normally corresponds with 4 to 5 point average favoritism in every game.

If I wanted to be popular around here I wouldn't have announced so early and often that I really like the New York Jets. In particular I remember that Mr. Confronter took particular offense to that, as if he discovered something criminal.

IMO, there are three levels of analysis. This is perhaps the primary reason for this marathon post. It can apply anywhere but I'll use sports betting as reference since that's what I know best. No apologies.

Level One is clear headed and enthusiastic and simple. Easy application of a handful of angles, if not just one. Laser focus. That's where I was in college and early Las Vegas. I bet line of scrimmage dominance in college football and couldn't imagine why anyone prioritized anything else. Great bottom line. Had a bookie's son screaming at me virtually every Saturday night on the phone.

Then comes the dreaded Level Two. Unimaginable horror. Wider than any ocean. Most entrants never escape. Rod Serling dimensions all over the place. Swirling mass of conflicting variables, each delighted like Chucky as the applicant struggles to weigh and apply. The perennial and seemingly intentional tease is just enough success to hint at progress, before the next slug in the face, starting all over again with a clown dancing all over your slumping mass. Bar Stoolers are low level two. Virtually no variance. They don't get the joke, or even know it exists. Flyovers. Content simplistic adjustment.

Level Three is ultra rare. I've detected it only 4 or 5 times in Las Vegas. It's when the individual is either so special he essentially skipped Level Two as effortlessly as a CLEP test, or somehow juggled all the Level Two demons without losing his mind, escaping with enough left to survive and prosper. This is when all the angles are known, not merely a few, but properly assigned amidst fantastic logic and scope. Amazing clarity and contentment. Bill Clinton speaking on virtually any topic is robust Level Three. I'm not trying to inject politics. That's the best example I have. I think I know golf. Clinton was on Feherty and dominated the subject of golf beyond anything I've heard. Rhodes Scholars have a leg up on Level Three. Insert your own joke. Maybe all Rhodes Scholars are Level Three. I've never studied that trend. The late Jim Murray writing sports, that was supreme Level Three, nearly creating his own level. I'm not willing to go there, just like the football categories are Crap, Crowd and Cream. Nothing above Cream.

There are a few posters here who reach Level Three, IMO, in terms of draft analysis. That's why I wanted to post this angle in this forum, and used the Confronter angle as a convenient excuse.

In my case, I realized within 17 months in Level Two that I had no realistic opportunity at Level Three as a sports bettor. It was either leave town, or revert to Level One. That was my solution and it was the correct choice. All of my systems are essentially Automated Level One. That was intentional. The research may have been complicated and exhausting but you'll notice that the criteria are quite basic. Maybe one situational angle combined with a statistical angle. That's about it. I get in trouble only when I apply a bit of Level Two silly subjectivity.

Draft examination is difficult because I never figured out how to automate it. Too much damn Level Two. That's why I'm so fascinated by the new metrics availability and breakthrough, like the ones that identified Jamie Collins two years ago and Teddy Bridgewater last year. The handful of Level Three draft guys are eligible to scoff at that but for the rest of us the metrics offer amazing potential. Of course, the Bar Stool Level Two types are just the ones to reject metrics and happy adjust to wherever they desire.

One last point: Level One is also where I've chosen to go in investing. I highly recommend it. Level One is index funds. Low cost and little to no thought required. I have some SLF and not much else other than index funds. I managed to score big with Apple stock beginning in the mid to late '90s. I'm still kicking myself for not investing more, instead of splitting each allocation with the S&P index fund, one that stalled for a decade. When I found Steve Jobs as wagon that might have been brief dalliance in Level Three, probably my one trip. It didn't seem challenging. Fortunately I never pretended to tour Level Two in that arena. Jim Cramer of CNBC reluctantly conceded recently that index funds are ideal for someone who doesn't have enough time to fully study the market. Uh, that sounds like virtually everyone. Actually I'm not sure how many people can legitimately threaten Level Three as investor. I'm happy Level One there and disgusted at ongoing Level Two frustration as a golfer. Just one hole-in-one and I'll call it a delighted Level Three. :D

Wow, I had no idea David Bowie was into gambling.

BTW, Dolphins will go 12-4 next season. I'd bet your life on it.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

We have a poster in this thread who is chowder. I don't care about chowder. I know they serve it in some joints. I don't pay attention.

Bar Stoolers are who we thought they were. I just sampled the Seattle/Green Bay game thread on a rival site. Absolutely priceless. It was nothing but runaway ridicule of Russell Wilson throughout, with mocking comparison to Ryan Tannehill. They actually had to close one thread on that site today, due to overboard obsession with the Tannehill angle, as opposed to the playoff game itself. I recognized some of the names from their time here. Bar Stoolers, then as now.

I posted about an hour ago here in the main forum on this site, guessing what it was like for Bar Stoolers as that game progressed. They took it to a level beyond even my expectation on the rival site. I'm not going to sample the similar version here, because I'd be tempted to reply to absurd comments from hours ago. That wouldn't be fair. They condemned themselves with their own words and themes.

There was one fellow who put it perfectly on the other site today, "Says more about the insecurities of Ryan backers who felt it necessary to bring him into this thread."

Exactly. And it was no different in this thread a couple of days ago. I followed the specified topic and posted at length regarding draft misses I've had over the decades. I tried to provide the reasoning behind my failures, including the theories I used. As always, I'm trying to to find the simple method to be correct more often than not. Normally far more often than not. That is the correct approach, IMO. Otherwise it requires supreme and sustained Level Three excellence to overcome the subjective requirements to apply one variable here and another one there, always trying to outsmart the opposition and the consensus value of the player.

The Bar Stooler who responded to me did not provide his list beforehand. I'm not sure why he even ventured into this forum. He attacked me. Very familiar. And it wasn't a generic attack. It shared the identical frothing obsession of the prototype Tannehill apologist, the ones from the game threads today. They can't tolerate any evaluation of Ryan Tannehill that isn't a flowery upward happy adjustment. Even if it's merely an evaluation of another player at the same position, they consider it a damnation of Ryan Tannehill. It would be even more hilarious if it weren't so sad. I feel for my fellow human beings, particularly ones who share this era. I can't really relate to prior generations. That's why I never comment on people from history books, the Bar Stoolers of yesteryear.

Bar Stoolers group with their own kind. That aspect, I admire. They can't be expected to fare well in societies like this one. Bar Stoolers shouldn't pursue options like therapy or lessons. They simply aren't programmed well.

 

[Sons Of Shula]

If anyone is curious what someone's obsession here is with bar stools, it's because he is a contributing writer for http://www.barstoolsports.com/

 

[xXwarXx]

Can you guys bring this stuff in the general forum, I purposely mostly only post in the draft section to stay away from this kind of nonsense.