Originally posted by ckparrothead
I'm not gonna say its impossible for a rookie QB to lead a team to a super bowl. Try and keep in mind that when a rookie QB is playing, its usually not in a good situation. Most teams have always kept to the notion that a rookie QB should sit his first year to learn...not just because coaches assume no rookie will lead them to a Super Bowl but also because a lot of coaches are genuinely afraid that tossing a rookie QB into the fire can actually RUIN him.
So when a rookie does actually enter as a starter it is usually in a pressure-less environment where the team is losing and they just want to find a way to win and see what the rookie can do...seeing what he brings to the table so that they can start planning for the future. So I think there's a severe sampling problem. The best rookie QBs go to the teams with the worst records in the NFL via the draft. Rookies don't usually get to lead a good team, so its no wonder when rookie QBs dont get the opportunity to win a super bowl
That said I think this is something that is going to change now that free agency has really set its hooks into the NFL. Now a team can go from 3-13 to 13-3 in one year, and there's lots of QBs out there who are in caretaker situations. You put a rookie QB with the polish of a Phil Rivers, as the QB of a team that was already good and should be good again, and yes, there's a chance he could lead them to the Super Bowl.