Outstanding write up, my friend. Even the novice scouts like me could see your vision. Kudos!When Miami traded from 8 to 13, the success of the trade would depend upon the player Miami drafted at 13. They landed a quality LB and CB – if they can stay healthy – but if Miami missed out on a blue chip talent because of the trade, they would be the clear loser. As it happens, Gas Mask Gate saw Tunsil fall right into Miami’s laps at 13. With the 8[SUP]th[/SUP] pick, Miami nets Kiko Alonso, Byron Maxwell, and the best player in the 2016 draft. The closest thing I’ve ever seen was the end of that one episode of Season One of True Detective, the one where the guy is wearing a gas mask. To the picks.
1 (13). Laremy Tunsil OT Mississippi SPARQ N/A – One of the two or three best LT prospects of the last 10 years, Laremy Tunsil glides. I’ve never seen a college LT make it look easier against NFL-caliber Edge prospects. While he plays light on his feet, he’s heavy on contact – immediately snuffing out counters and bull rushes. He’s the best player in the 2016 Draft. If you value CB, Edge, or LB ahead of OT, you may rank other prospects higher, but none of them played as well or project as easily as Laremy Tunsil.
2 (38). Xavien Howard CB Baylor SPARQ 84.6%* – After Ramsey and Hargreaves, no CB presents a better combination of physical tools and polish than Xavien Howard. He’s a better athlete than Apple, William Jackson III, or Artie Burns, and he has more career INT’s than anyone in that group. He’s also the heaviest, 201 lbs, and close in height and arm length (except for Burns – 33”+ arms). Miami gets a big, physically developed CB with great speed and burst and adequate agility, and he plays with the physicality, instincts, and ball skills you want in a top CB. Most of his issues at Baylor appeared to be correctable – lapses in concentration more than anything else. Relative to the CB’s (outside of Ramsey and Hargreaves) drafted ahead of him, Howard looks like a terrific value at 38, and he’s a perfect fit for what Miami wants at CB. He’ll have more help at Miami than he did at Baylor – just like Maxwell will have more help than he had at Philly. Howard has a great shot to outplay most of the CB’s drafted ahead of him, because he’s such a good fit in Vance Joseph’s press cover-2.
3 (73). Kenyan Drake OW/KR Alabama SPARQ 35.3% – Drake is the draft’s best combination of RB/Receiver/KR. As a receiver split out wide, he’s a true deep threat, and he’s a dangerous KR. If you think he can return to the athleticism he showed 2012 and 2013, you see a lot of upside. As he stands, Drake is a build-up speed RB, and I like Mel Kiper’s comparison to a poor-man’s Reggie Bush. There were much better RB’s and WR’s available (Miami got one later in Leonte Carroo); there were also better KR’s available (Miami got one later in Jakeem Grant). This pick only works if Gase has an ultra-specific plan for Drake’s skill set. Kenneth Dixon would have been an awfully nice insurance policy/carry splitter with Jay Ajayi. Expect him to flourish in Baltimore. Have to note that Drake is as tough as they come, and he makes big plays at big times. He can impact the game in a lot of ways. I just wonder about actual RB depth.
3 (86). Leonte Carroo WR Rutgers SPARQ 49% – His catches and yards fell short of what you want to see, but his TD’s did not, and he was very efficient with his opportunities. Compares himself to a much faster Anquan Boldin, I think he’s a mix of Jarvis Landry and Stefon Diggs. Dangerous after the catch, knows how to create separation, and win contested catches. He plays with a huge chip on his shoulder, and he’s refined. Catches everything, and despite his gaudy YPC, he’s an underrated deep threat. He knows how to use leverage to beat CB’s over the top – like L. Treadwell, D. Hopkins, and A. Boldin. He, Landry, and Parker instantly becomes one of the most physical WR trios in the NFL, and Tannehill should love each as a target.
6 (186). Jakeem Grant WR/KR Texas Tech SPARQ 37.9% – D. Sproles meets T. Austin, Grant catches a lot of balls, eats up a ton or RAC, and he can track the ball deep. He has speed and quickness for days. Drops are an issue, but it will be hard to keep him off the field on offense. I’d look to get him between 5-10 touches a game. He doesn’t need a lot of space, phone-booth ghost, to make things happen. Very productive as a receiver and return man, and he’s surprisingly effective/willing as a blocker. Between Grant and Drake, there should be no reason for Landry to return punts or kicks. Drafting two players whose value relies heavily upon their ability to return kicks seems a little overkill. If Miami was targeting Grant, they could have really used a guy like Kenneth Dixon at 73, or they could have drafted Carroo at 73 and kept the picks they traded to move up to 86. Miami could have also used a talented FS like Justin Simmons at 73.
6 (204). Jordan Lucas CB/S Penn St. SPARQ 94.7% – Will play CB for Miami, and he’s a great fit. Like Xavier Howard, he’s a well-built 6’0” 201 lbs. Lucas is technically sound and a team captain. His instincts are only OK, but his physicality, athletic tools (elite athlete), and discipline bridge the gap to make him a very appealing CB prospect, particularly in press coverage. Lucas compares favorably to Eric Murray, and Lucas has better agility and upside. At worst, Lucas will find a valuable role on ST’s, and he’ll boost the team athleticism in the short term. Lucas has shown signs that he can play CB at a high level, and he has the physical tools to do it. His instincts are inconsistent, and he doesn’t play the ball as well as a guy like Xavien Howard, but I think he’ll love playing within the structure of Vance Joseph’s D. If Jordan Lucas reaches his potential, Leon Hall is my up-side comp.
7 (223). Brandon Doughty QB Western Kentucky SPARQ 3.7% – Did not watch.
7 (231). Thomas Duarte TE UCLA SPARQ 48.4% – Compares favorably to Jordan Reed as an athlete, and he’s productive with 17 career TD receptions – 10 coming in 2015. He’s an interesting option as an H-back. Gase determined that Tannehill needs receiving options that excel in the short and intermediate range but can also make plays deep. The FO did a good job of identifying Landry and Parker as receivers who compliment Tannehill. Carroo and Duarte should also suit his game very well. Miami will have no shortage of playmakers in 2016. I liked the TE from Harvard, Ben Braunecker, but Duarte fits a mismatch prototype.
Closing
I expected Miami to load up on D, but they took the opposite approach – solidifying the O-line, adding talent to the receiver position, and loading up on return specialists. I’m high on the two DB’s Miami did draft. Lucas, in particular, is an outstanding value with terrific upside. From the FO’s perspective, they added Kiko Alonso, Byron Maxwell, Xavien Howard, and Jordan Lucas to the D. Depth at DE would have been nice, but I can’t fault the FO for bypassing this relatively weak DE group. After Ogbah went at 32, there wasn’t much to choose from. We’ll have to see what Gase has planned for Drake, but Carroo and Duarte should have clear roles, and Grant should be a Tyler Lockett kind of weapon in the return game.
Miami walks away with four starters – including Alonso and Maxwell; though, Alonso’s health is an obvious concern. Two CB’s, a MLB, and an OT/OG, so while Miami did draft more offensive players than I wanted/expected, it’s not fair to say that they neglected the defense. In regard to talent evaluation, there’s not a lot to complain about – outside of Drake, who does have his merits. The resource management was strange at best. If Miami liked Carroo that much, why didn’t they draft him at 73? If Drake isn’t returning kicks, why pass on Kenneth Dixon? If Drake is returning kicks, why trade up for Jakeem Grant? While this aspect of the draft could have gone much smoother, I’m encouraged by Chris Grier’s selections. He wisely placed a greater emphasis on athleticism for defensive prospects than offensive prospects. On offense, Grier looked for specific traits and refinement, but on D, he picked up couple of top-level athletes in Howard and Lucas, who are big and fit the press-coverage scheme that Joseph will implement.
Offense average SPARQ (not including QB): 42.65%**
Defense average SPARQ: 89.65%
*Means only 15% of NFL CB's tested better than Howard (as an example).
**Tunsil did not test and cannot be included.
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We'll see how he does. I expect him to outplay his draft position.
