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J-Off's 2024 QB's

SF Dolphin Fan said:
Good points. Didn't want to pressure you there, but something I might consider and your opinions are always valued and appreciated.

If I knew for sure that Tua was going to get some of his athleticism back, I wouldn't be even looking much at quarterbacks. Other than maybe guys like Melton as later round backup types.
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No, it's a good/fair question. I think we haven't seen Tua look as mobile as he was pre-hip injury. He's still very quick with his feet in the pocket, but when it comes to escaping the pocket, he just hasn't shown the juice he did at Alabama. We get some sense of his ability to extend without taking sacks by the company he's keeping in this chart - close to Mahomes, Purdy, and Bo Nix.

Tua looks like those days might not return.

But, I also dont think they've given Tua a balanced offense - in terms of toughness and physicality, tertiary options that make sense with Hill and Waddle, and, of course, OL. And, overall, he's still been excellent.

With this team's timeline, and the need for OL, and the talent at OL in this class, I think that's the clear move. I'm not sure that continuing on this timeline is the most prudent path, but there are multiple paths toward success - devil's in the details.
 
jimthefin said:
There is enough of a mix of good to crap on that list to make those numbers seem less than useful in projecting an NFL QB.
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Sack avoidance in particular is probably the stickiest aspect of QB play from CFB to the NFL. Turnovers can largely be circumstantial.

But, comparing the top guys vs the bottom guys, I don't think it's less than helpful.
 


I think Maye's numbers are relatively bad here, because his WR's were very bad and really struggled to separate. As you can see, he also faced a ton of pressure, and you can't see it here, but he had a bad defense, so he was really carrying a bad team.

Excuses for Maye aside, Bo Nix had the highest TD rate and 1st down rate while having the lowest turnover worthy play rate and among the lowest sack rates (right there with Penix Jr) vs pressure. He also scrambled at about the same rate as Mahomes (in the pros). Nix just plays the game with poise you don't often see from a college QB - or from NFL QB's for that matter.
 
Why did Caleb Williams refuse the medical? I have never heard of any Draft prospect refusing to have the medical at the Combine. I didn't even know that a player could refuse to have a medical. What the hell is going on?
 
spiketex said:
Why did Caleb Williams refuse the medical? I have never heard of any Draft prospect refusing to have the medical at the Combine. I didn't even know that a player could refuse to have a medical. What the hell is going on?
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Man, I don't know. It always seems to be something with him. I keep getting this sense that he thinks he's already arrived, and that scares me more than anything. Obviously, I'm not putting too much weight into that feeling, or he'd be ranked lower, but I'm also not ignoring it.

I'm rooting for him, because he is an exceptional talent, but jfc ☠️
 
I guess he felt that he did not want the teams who have no chance to Draft him having his medical information.

But he says he will do exams for the top few teams that he is going to visit.

Seems like it would be easier to do it once at the Combine than to do multiple exams on his trips. :shrug:


But Caleb is a different type of dude.

It remains to be seen if that will be good or bad for his future employer.
 


Imo Bo Nix throwing to open WR's at this rate has a lot to do with his poise and experience + the athleticism to extend the plays. It also has to do with him settling for shorter passes. But, shorter passes to open receivers are better than deeper passes to covered receivers - ask Patrick Mahomes.

Anyway, I think Maye ranks low, because his WR's struggled to separate, and his OL was bad. D was bad, too, for that matter. I don't think he struggled to find open players; players struggled to get open.

So, I think film tells the story, but you have to parse why the QB's rank where they do here. Is it them? Their teammates/system?

Imo none of these guys are particularly bad in this area, but Daniels is probably the weakest working over the middle.
 
rickd13 said:
How do you feel about Jordan Travis? What round do you think he will be drafted.
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I watched him develop at FSU since 2019 and my personal thoughts are as follows:
Pros
1. Great attitude, teammate, and work ethic. He had to put up with a lot of adversity in his early seasons at FSU and stayed resilient. Willie Taggart didn't even want to play him despite Kendall Briles requesting it, he finally saw the field when Taggart got fired and you could see why Taggart was clueless. Norvell didn't really want to play him either until he basically had to in 2020 and then again in 2021 when he brought in Mackenzie Milton and realized Milton was ruined because of the knee injury.
2. Made a significant jump as a passer going into the 2022 season and led the nation in some passing efficiency statistics last season.
3. Had a pretty good command of Norvell's pro-style offense in 2022 and 2023
4. Extremely shifty and athletic
5. Throws a pretty good ball
6. Won a lot of big games over the past two seasons including outplaying Jayden Daniels in both their match ups.
Cons
1. Had a propensity of pre-determining where he was going to go with the ball and force things that weren't there post- snap. It cost FSU the 2022 NC State game. There were times last season where he also just chucked it up to Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman instead of just taking what the defense was giving him.
2. Durability issues due to size and taking too many hits, he seemed to have a shoulder issue at FSU every season and he had the broken leg injury late last season. It's hard to play captain hindsight, but his season ending injury he probably should have slid well before the hip drop tackle.
3. I'm not entirely sure how his arm strength will translate to the professional level.

I think he will going on the third day of the draft and be a good back up. It wouldn't surprise me if he's starting for an NFL team at some point but i doubt it.
I also would not be surprised if McDaniel wants him late and i've heard through people at FSU that McDaniel has shown an interest in him.
After watching the CFB, FSU would have won the NC if Travis didn't get hurt, but that's a different discussion for a different time.
 
rickd13 said:
How do you feel about Jordan Travis? What round do you think he will be drafted.
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My main thing with him is that he falls below the physical thresholds you'd like. Athletically and in overall arm talent, he probably similar to Brock Purdy. I don't think his instincts and timing are as good as Purdy's, though.

But, with some development, or if I'm underestimating him in some way, you know, he could be more live than I think. Situation would be important.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
My main thing with him is that he falls below the physical thresholds you'd like. Athletically and in overall arm talent, he probably similar to Brock Purdy. I don't think his instincts and timing are as good as Purdy's, though.

But, with some development, or if I'm underestimating him in some way, you know, he could be more live than I think. Situation would be important.
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I saw so much development from him at FSU that nothing would surprise me with him in the pros; i cannot emphasize enough the leap he made as a passer from 2021 to 2022. He needs to put on some weight and his handsize also concerns me, he may have issues gripping the ball in wet situations. I think his future is career back up and maybe in a pinch starter, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he's making pro bowls in 3-4 years. I'm obviously rooting for the guy, him and Norvell were the main reasons FSU turned it around.
 
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