Man, We Really Screwed Up Bypassing T.j. Watt! | Page 10 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Man, We Really Screwed Up Bypassing T.j. Watt!

Holy crap you just listed the Dolphins best draft picks of the last decade. And yet still none are top 5 at their position. But carry on acting like we are the Steelers or Patriots.
I noticed you did not reply with an actual answer. Hindsight is 20/20, so these should be easy questions. Of course, we're also going to ask your opinions before the next draft … where you can put your money where your mouth is so to speak, so start watching tape now. :-)
 
I’m willing to bet that Miami was 1 of maybe 3 teams that ranked Harris above Watt as a DE prospect/pass rusher...... ugh it’s only so frustrating to me because it’s the same direct positional comparison & Miami got it wrong (so far). Watt has had an impact from day 1.
 
Watt was appealing for a number of reasons. He played with great instincts and effort, was strong at the POA, showed great bend and flexibility, and he made plays in a variety of ways - deflecting passes, chasing down runs away, and, of course, sacking and pressuring the QB. He also tested as an elite athlete, which is particularly important for a OLB Pass Rushers/Pass Rushers who start wide. I know that Slimm, CK, and I liked him a lot and ranked better than where he was drafted. Having JJ Watt as a brother mattered, too.

I understand why people were high on Harris, but in general, if you're going to take a guy with athletic limitations early, you want him to be outstanding everywhere else, don't want him to be undersized, and you would really like him to have elite hands. Harris had a number of issues beyond his athletic limitations. He's a skilled and instinctive pass rusher, and he still has a chance to be a good player, but his deficiencies both lower his ceiling and increase his chance of failing to develop into something more than a role player.

Every player has a range of outcomes. People who struggle to with talent evaluations tend to randomly assign a best-case scenario to Player X or a worst-case scenario to Player Y, rather than identifying the correct ranges for each. Of course, everyone misses, but the way you miss will speak to the frequency with which you miss. It's no different than a batter, golfer, or shooter (basketball). The consistent/accurate players tend to have pure/efficient swings/shots - giving themselves higher chances to succeed.
 
I’m pretty sure tak McKinley tested pretty similar to Harris and was a 4.8 guy himself. That’s really the only guy that plays in a 3 point ask people could point to with a regards to Miami missing on.

The rest of them are 2 point guys or taco charlton or Charles Harris.

Jordan Willis hasn’t done much. Although he’d fit the ask. Probably gonna go down as just not a very good 43 de class. It happens.

I think some of it comes back to when miami has a real need the options in the class that fit just haven’t been there or worked out.
 
I’m willing to bet that Miami was 1 of maybe 3 teams that ranked Harris above Watt as a DE prospect/pass rusher...... ugh it’s only so frustrating to me because it’s the same direct positional comparison & Miami got it wrong (so far). Watt has had an impact from day 1.

Just a quick check of prospect rankings, I can't find one that lists Watt ahead of Harris. No, that's not teams, but a decent proxy.
 
Just a quick check of prospect rankings, I can't find one that lists Watt ahead of Harris. No, that's not teams, but a decent proxy.


I mean most of us had watt high I had top 15 but as a 34 olb. Which is what the ask is in Pittsburgh. Nothing about that kids college tape or pro game said or says now 43 de. He’s an ideal 2 point stance player.

The only guy that I can think of that got drafted for what I would call a less than ideal 3 point ask is the edge the saints just drafted Marcus Davenport. And he was almost all 2 point on college tape and most explosive out of that setting as well. So the saints went with a little bit of a projection. To me that’s somewhat risky but the player did have the frame for the ask. And it was late round 1 which is where you are more willing to accept risk and projection.

Me? I like to draft guys for the ask that the tape validates in the first place and where the grade comes from. I don’t mind projection but when you are asking a guy to do something he’s either not most comfortable with or less than ideal fit for either the frame or the ask I think that’s when you tend to come up empty.

One thing I will say is I should pay more attention to the test athlete with edge players. It matters. But at the end of the day I’m gonna trust my eye on tape over anything else. Test scores should reinforce not validate.
 
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Hindsight is always 20/20. You could go on ad Infinitum about players the Dolphins passed on, as well as, players that every other team passed on since the beginning of each franchise.
 
I mean most of us had watt high I had top 15 but as a 34 olb. Which is what the ask is in Pittsburgh. Nothing about that kids college tape or pro game said or says now 43 de. He’s an ideal 2 point stance player.

The only guy that I can think of that got drafted for what I would call a less than ideal 3 point ask is the edge the saints just drafted. And he was almost all 2 point on college tape and most explosive out of that setting as well. So the saints went with a little bit of a projection. To me that’s somewhat risky but the player did have the frame for the ask. And it was late round 1 which is where you are more willing to accept risk and projection.

Me? I like to draft guys for the ask that the tape validates in the first place and where the grade comes from. I don’t mind projection but when you are asking a guy to do something he’s either not most comfortable with or less than ideal fit for either the frame or the ask I think that’s when you tend to come up empty.

Davenport was 2018 not 2017, and he was playing well sooner than expected - on pace for 9 sacks before the injury. The Saints traded up to 14 to get him.

But, his hands are the main reason he wasn't much of a projection imo. Rare burst/power. Not many guys can bull rush Trent Williams. For a rookie to do it, that's pretty special.
 
The player that I want in 2017 1st rd was Jarrad Davis- just a straight up baller with fantastic athletic ability including great speed. Would have been a difference maker for us, taken one spot ahead of us by Detroit, pissed me off. Harris- bad size for a DE, slow, bad against the run- the dipsh** front office saw what, a gym rat with a spin move? Then, now, TJ Watt looked like the better player and far more explosive. I cringed when Davis was taken by Detroit, I hoped for Watt and I would have rather had Tak McKinley, Tredavous White, Watt, Cam Robinson, Forrest Lamp, Pat Elfein or Dan Feeney. Any of those OL would have been great and I was a big fan of Lamp, bad luck for him and the Chargers with the rookie ACL injury. I could never get on board with Taco Charlton, both he and Harris seemed too blah in terms of explosiveness and overall athletic ability.
 
I’m aware Davenport was 2018. I was just referencing that he’s the only ideal 2 point player on college tape that was drafted and shown well in a 43 ask that I can recall and he had the frame for it. I did forget about the trade up by the saints however.

Trent Williams has played hurt pretty much all year but yes that’s a legit feat to move that mountain
 
I’m aware Davenport was 2018. I was just referencing that he’s the only ideal 2 point player on college tape that was drafted and shown well in a 43 ask that I can recall and he had the frame for it. I did forget about the trade up by the saints however.

Trent Williams has played hurt pretty much all year but yes that’s a legit feat to move that mountain


He consistently showed speed to power conversion in college too, but I didn't think he could do that to Trent.
 
I noticed you did not reply with an actual answer. Hindsight is 20/20, so these should be easy questions. Of course, we're also going to ask your opinions before the next draft … where you can put your money where your mouth is so to speak, so start watching tape now. :)


Well as you already said, hindsight is 20/20 but as an fsu guy I wanted Derwin James over Minkah and Derwin has been absolutely balling this year. Minkah has been good and I think he will continue to be good for us but DJ has been better so far. Either of those guys are great picks though so I still love Minkah.

I'd take Michael Thomas over X Howard, Howard's good but I love Michael Thomas, dude is the definition of a number 1 wr.....Tunsil I'd stick with, I think he can be an all pro LT.
 
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