Mandatory Minicamp 06/16/21

[fansinceGWilson]

I am not disregarding that bit at all. Tua threw UNDER 100 yards per game in 33% of the games he played in( LA,LV,DEN), thats not even game manager stats. You take away the garbage yards at Buffalo and his YPA plummets.

You add 100 more yards per game to Tua's 9 games and we win the Denver game. One more touchdown we beat KC. We win those games and we are in the playoffs. You throw 100 more yards per game and your defense is not on the field while you're gaining another 100 yards, the other team is not on the field scoring points either.

Doesn't look like we'll agree so I'll leave it at this, 100 yards more per game last year and we would have made the playoffs. It's pretty difficult to argue otherwise. That's why I don't agree with you when you asked "Are those really THAT different to you". Yes, yes they are that different, season altering different in my opinion...

You do realize Fitz had significant snaps in LV and DEN. He only threw for <100 yds in one game where he played the entire game - his 1st one. His Comp% and TD/INT ratio not glaringly different from Fitz. To me, TT's problems seemed to be the speed of the game and (apparently) lack of appreciation for the talent. Thus, way too many sacks, too many check downs, and trying to force a play. All those contribute to the (correctly) poor stats you mention. I'll not try to deny the poor showings. And I agree, just a little improvement and Miami would have been in the playoffs.

Where we MAY disagree and where I disagree with a lot of the negatives on TT is basic cause. If you go to my 1st paragraph and read my reasons for the poor showings, you'll see a lot of mental quickness/newbie problems (e.g., too many sacks). Those are resolved by experience and repetition - they are, largely, not due to lack of talent. I also think that's why Flo is forcing TT to be more aggressive. What is aggresive to him may be nothing more than forcing him to understand 'NFL open.'

we agree, TT had a couple of games where he looked like an NFL QB, but, overall, his play was disappointing. I don't know what you consider 'basic cause.' If you are arguing it's lack of or low talent, we disagree. If you think it's lack experience and training, we agree. One can be corrected, one can't. Personally, I'm agnostic, leaning optimistic.

 

[Mark_J]

You do realize Fitz had significant snaps in LV and DEN. He only threw for <100 yds in one game where he played the entire game - his 1st one. His Comp% and TD/INT ratio not glaringly different from Fitz. To me, TT's problems seemed to be the speed of the game and (apparently) lack of appreciation for the talent. Thus, way too many sacks, too many check downs, and trying to force a play. All those contribute to the (correctly) poor stats you mention. I'll not try to deny the poor showings. And I agree, just a little improvement and Miami would have been in the playoffs.

Where we MAY disagree and where I disagree with a lot of the negatives on TT is basic cause. If you go to my 1st paragraph and read my reasons for the poor showings, you'll see a lot of mental quickness/newbie problems (e.g., too many sacks). Those are resolved by experience and repetition - they are, largely, not due to lack of talent. I also think that's why Flo is forcing TT to be more aggressive. What is aggresive to him may be nothing more than forcing him to understand 'NFL open.'

we agree, TT had a couple of games where he looked like an NFL QB, but, overall, his play was disappointing. I don't know what you consider 'basic cause.' If you are arguing it's lack of or low talent, we disagree. If you think it's lack experience and training, we agree. One can be corrected, one can't. Personally, I'm agnostic, leaning optimistic.

I appreciate your post!

I actually agree with most of what you're saying. I think the game moved too fast for Tua and I think that was compounded by the injury recovery, no off season, no training camp, COVID limitations, etc,etc.Tua was too tentative and not very decisive with his throws opting for those check-downs you mentioned more than he should have.

I don't think Tua will repeat the season he had last year, he's been getting stronger, further removed from his injury recovery, more familiar with the system, he's going to get a full training camp and we gave him some help through the draft and off-season. Every one of those points suggests big improvement from Tua.

What I strongly disagreed with earlier in this thread was the idea that adding 100 yards of offense to every game that Tua played in "doesn't mean that much". I just can't seem to wrap my head around that idea...

 

[dol-phan007]

This is an interesting perspective.

The bit that is intriguing to me is the comparison to Burrow. 900 more yards than Tua over the same number of games could be a huge factor. That means Burrow threw 100 yards per game more than Tua did. That translates to more 1st downs, less time that your defense is on the field and most importantly less time that the opposing team's offense is on the field. If their offense is not on the field they are not scoring points.

I agree there are a ton of factors to consider when doing such comparisons, to me that many more yards per game is more likely than not to be a very big difference to a well balanced team. If Tua had thrown 900 more yards during his 9 games you would have a difficult time convincing me that we wouldn't have made the playoffs last year...

There are a ton of factors but let's talk about a couple of them that made a big difference.

When you are losing and playing from behind like the Bengals did all year you have to throw the ball to preserve the clock and try to catch up. We were not in that situation alot last year. Also when our defense was as good as it was and scored alot, the other team gets the ball back again. Keeping it from our own offense hands. We played with a lead alot and ran the ball to run out the clock.

There are many factors that come into play. I do think that Burrow out played Tua last year but not as simple as saying he threw for 900 yards more so he is that much better.

We will see alot more from Tua this year.

 

[Vaark]

56 out of the last 60 posts Tua related and all negative! It's watching post OCD take on a life of its own!

 

[dol-phan007]

You also get more INTs. Tua's play calling was extremely conservative but had the same amount of INTs and Burrow had 900 more yards. In terms of interception %, Tua had about 30% higher rate than Burrow, and that's WITH conservative play calling. That's not insignificant.

Tua also had 3 more dropped INTs than Burrow:

Adjusted Interceptions 2020

Officially, Denver's Drew Lock and Philadelphia's Carson Wentz led the league in interceptions thrown last year, but one of them was much luckier than the other. Ben Roethlisberger, Nick Foles, and Tua Tagovailoa were also lucky, while fortune was not as kind to Russell Wilson and especially not...

www.footballoutsiders.com

When they let Tua "air it out," he had 3 INTs in the Buffalo game as you noted . The conservative play Gailey instituted for Tua was likely for good reason.

There you go again with this.

 

[Mark_J]

There are a ton of factors but let's talk about a couple of them that made a big difference.

When you are losing and playing from behind like the Bengals did all year you have to throw the ball to preserve the clock and try to catch up. We were not in that situation alot last year. Also when our defense was as good as it was and scored alot, the other team gets the ball back again. Keeping it from our own offense hands. We played with a lead alot and ran the ball to run out the clock.

There are many factors that come into play. I do think that Burrow out played Tua last year but not as simple as saying he threw for 900 yards more so he is that much better.

We will see alot more from Tua this year.

I was honestly not trying to compare Tua with Burrow, two different players and teams altogether. I agree with you that Tua will be alot better this year as well.

I was pointing out that 100 more yards of offense in 9 games is important, I don't care how you get that many yards in a game it's a huge advantage. From a ball control perspective, to keeping your defense fresh having the ball on offense for another 100 yards is more likely than not a game changer.

Had we been able to add 100 yards per game to all 9 of Tua's games we would have made the playoffs.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I appreciate your post!

I actually agree with a most of what you're saying. I think the game moved too fast for Tua and I think that was compounded by the injury recovery, no off season, no training camp, COVID limitations, etc,etc.Tua was too tentative and not very decisive with his throws opting for those check-downs you mentioned more than he should have.

I don't think Tua will repeat the season he had last year, he's been getting stronger, further removed from his injury recovery, more familiar with the system, he's going to get a full training camp and we gave him some help through the draft and off-season. Every one of those points suggests big improvement from Tua.

What I strongly disagreed with earlier in this thread was the idea that adding 100 yards of offense to every game that Tua played in "doesn't mean that much". I just can't seem to wrap my head around that idea...

Agree. Simple NFL logic. Pick any NFL QB. Add 100 yds/game. More wins

 

[rent this space]

I am not disregarding that bit at all. Tua threw UNDER 100 yards per game in 33% of the games he played in( LA,LV,DEN), thats not even game manager stats. You take away the garbage yards at Buffalo and his YPA plummets.

You add 100 more yards per game to Tua's 9 games and we win the Denver game. One more touchdown we beat KC. We win those games and we are in the playoffs. You throw 100 more yards per game and your defense is not on the field while you're gaining another 100 yards, the other team is not on the field scoring points either.

Doesn't look like we'll agree so I'll leave it at this, 100 yards more per game last year and we would have made the playoffs. It's pretty difficult to argue otherwise. That's why I don't agree with you when you asked "Are those really THAT different to you". Yes, yes they are that different, season altering different in my opinion...

so the fact that Tua threw an average of almost 13 less passes per game doesn't matter? You want 100 more yards per game on the same attempts?

 

[SCOTTY]

Anything from camp today? The weather by me sucks.

 

[fishfanmiami]

Yea Mark I understand what you are saying but if you add 100 yards passing do you also take away 100 yards running from those games ?

Our D was playing very good so why air it out and would that really have lead to more wins ?

Who knows

 

[Feverdream]

Yea mark I understand what you are saying but if you add 100 yards passing do you also take away 100 yards running from those games ?

Our D was playing very good so why air it out and would that really have lead to more wins ?

Who knows

This is an excellent observation...

Good coaches start to run the clock when they are ahead... shorten the game.

 

[dol-phan007]

I was honestly not trying to compare Tua with Burrow, two different players and teams altogether. I agree with you that Tua will be alot better this year as well.

I was pointing out that 100 more yards of offense in 9 games is important, I don't care how you get that many yards in a game it's a huge advantage. From a ball control perspective, to keeping your defense fresh having the ball on offense for another 100 yards is more likely than not a game changer.

Had we been able to add 100 yards per game to all 9 of Tua's games we would have made the playoffs.

I agree that 100 yards more per game would have been big for us but we did other things in those games instead of throwing those yards. Take away the running game and we could have thrown more. Why would we want to take away the running game though. We were ahead in alot of the games so we ran out the clock to win. The Bengals were not in a position to run the clock out so they threw it more. And as we all know during the end of games when a team is winning the defense plays alot more softly and that is called garbage yards that looks good on paper but does not count for wins.

What did those 100 yards extra per game do for the Bengals win total?

 

[Mark_J]

Yea Mark I understand what you are saying but if you add 100 yards passing do you also take away 100 yards running from those games ?

Our D was playing very good so why air it out and would that really have lead to more wins ?

Who knows

Good question but I say no you don't take the runs away too much. With another 100 yards in the air you're getting a lot more 1st downs, which translates to more plays overall.

Last year we only got 113 1st downs rushing but 193 passing. Our total rushing was only 1862 and Tua had 1814 in 9 games. Based on the above (if I did the math right) another 100 yards in the air would translate to about 16 more first downs per game. That could change a lot of things in a game including time of possession to salt a game away...

 

[Avigatorx]

You also get more INTs. Tua's play calling was extremely conservative but had the same amount of INTs and Burrow had 900 more yards. In terms of interception %, Tua had about 30% higher rate than Burrow, and that's WITH conservative play calling. That's not insignificant.

Tua also had 3 more dropped INTs than Burrow:

Adjusted Interceptions 2020

Officially, Denver's Drew Lock and Philadelphia's Carson Wentz led the league in interceptions thrown last year, but one of them was much luckier than the other. Ben Roethlisberger, Nick Foles, and Tua Tagovailoa were also lucky, while fortune was not as kind to Russell Wilson and especially not...

www.footballoutsiders.com

When they let Tua "air it out," he had 3 INTs in the Buffalo game as you noted . The conservative play Gailey instituted for Tua was likely for good reason.

Big problem with the data set in that article.

They show Tua had no tipped interceptions, yet his very first pick bounced out of the receivers hands...



The second pick in the bills game was off a tip as well.

Seems they are selectively interpreting their own data.

 

[utahphinsfan]

understood, we were talking about (over)reactions to Tua's practice yesterday. Devlin tried to say the supporters act the same as his lot

Agree. I recall St Tebow went 1 for 11 in a jest OTA w/ 3 picks and the media did nothing but praise godboy


p.s. Its odd how we have heard very little from N Florida on how the great conversion is going.