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Merged: Hey Boomer / Boomer on Day 1

Has anyone taken the time to compare Boomer's (self professed expert) mock draft to the actual draft? Very low percentage of accuracy Boom's...especially with the Fins.

see, this misses the best part of the whole affair. All you are looking at are the mock drafts, but that's the fluff, not the meat. The good stuff Boomer gives us are breakdown after breakdown of all the likely and unlikely choices. He understands the connections and relationships between everyone and includes those, sometimes as "qualifiers" to help "us" see the how's and why's. Good stuff, for month's on end, NEW things to think about and discuss.
 
I have to admit Boom, Randy and Cam laid that smokescreen out there very well, I seriously doubt there were many that saw us passing on Brady.

The perception I had of your position was this, you strongly felt it should be Ginn, based on his elite playmaking potential, but that the sources were saying Quinn was first priority.

So I'd say you did very well, and in this case should have listened to your gut instead of the sources.


I love how we talk about this masterful smokescreen that basically netted us nothing, much like when we were talking up Braylon Edwards. Nobody was taking Ginn before our pick and it was not thier smokescreen that fooled everybody, it was thier need of a QB or oline. The only reason people thought we were taking Brown or Quinn was we need those type of players.
How silly of the media to think we need a Qb, when one was available.We were lucky to get Beck with this so called master plan, so lets not annoint Mueller as the master manipulator just yet.
 
actually , he should be annointed

he got the qb and wr he wanted
 
I love how we talk about this masterful smokescreen that basically netted us nothing, much like when we were talking up Braylon Edwards. Nobody was taking Ginn before our pick and it was not thier smokescreen that fooled everybody, it was thier need of a QB or oline. The only reason people thought we were taking Brown or Quinn was we need those type of players.
How silly of the media to think we need a Qb, when one was available.We were lucky to get Beck with this so called master plan, so lets not annoint Mueller as the master manipulator just yet.


The Redskins had Ginn as their alternate pick if Landry was gone, Houston were set to take him at 10, St Louis similarly at 13 and Green Bay at 16, so I'm not sure what you mean by saying "nobody was talking about Ginn".
 
Some questions about your assessment:

1) From all of Cameron's comments about Ginn, the main reason we drafted him is for his return capabilities. That is questionable. Would the Dolphins have traded their first round pick for Devin Hester? A top 10 pick for a return man? Most of the over the middle catches Ginn made were on slot plays, quck slants and sit down routes. He has not shown the ability to go 'over the middle' as most analysts have pointed out.
I hope he proves to be a great asset to the team but if he ends up being a 3rd WR and a GREAT return man then this pick is a BUST. Do you agree?

OK......I think what Cameron said viz a viz his return abilities was more about the fact that he was standing on a podium at the draft party, met by a cavalcade of boos. I certainly don't think that was what he was expecting and I think he essentially was highlighting that the immediate return from Ginn will come in the return game. I think his return abilities certainly played into why he was picked - why wouldn't they, considering he's probably the best return man to ever come out of college - but quite clearly he's going to have a significant offensive impact, at flanker, in the slot, as a TB, QB, etc. In terms of his ability over the middle, I think this is being seriously overplayed. Plaxico Burress doesn't like going over the middle either. When does Marvin Harrison go "across the middle"? Marvin runs shallow crosses, slants, quick ins, etc. The self same routes that Ginn ran very succesfully at OSU. As for him being a 3rd round WR and a great return man and it being a bust, quantify "3rd round WR" for me.



2) John Beck. His extremely low release point is a concern. Res Grossman struggles with this same issue and he has a higher release point than BEck. NOt to mention, considering the number of people of who questioned Brady Quinn's capabilities against top flight defenses, BEck never played against one and he had trouble putting points on the board against BC and Arizona, that's right BC and Arizona. THe concern I have with this pick is that it seems like Cameron islooking for the next Drew Brees. A smallish QB with a below average arm who is accurate and heady is the exception to the rule, not the model for what you go after. I hope BEck turns out to be a Drew Brees type QB but we shall see.

I don't think Beck's release point is an issue. It's higher than Phil Rivers' is for example. His delivery is also smoother and the release is quicker than Quinn's and indeed Grossman's. Beck also rarely locks onto a reciever. He's a master manipulator of the defense, by the way that he sets his shoulders and uses his eyes. Very few of his balls were knocked down at BYU, so I don't see an issue. As for winning against big teams, lets contextualise that some. He was throwing to street FA Johnny Harline and Bryce Mahuika and Saia Hafoka, who last time I looked, weren't a threat at the top of the 2008 draft board. He still completed 69.3% of his throws, and he ranked second in the country to Colt Brennan in passing efficiency with a rating of 169.1. He also ranked in the top five passers in the NCAA in nearly every major offensive category: points responsible for (19 ppg.), total passing yardage (3,885 yards), and passing yards per game (323.75 ypg.). That is not even mentioning Beck tossed an eye gouging touchdown to interception ratio (32 touchdowns: 8 interceptions) and the aforementioned completion percentage of 69.3 percent. The guy nearly averaged a first down every time he completed a pass this season - 9.3 yards per completion!

As for him being smallish with a below average arm.......he's 6'2 and the below average arm thing, I'm just not buying 1 iota. He has a very strong arm. People talked about JaMarcus Russell’s arm strength, well, sitting on his knees from the 47 yard-line John Beck once tossed a ball through the uprights in BYU’s indoor practice facility. Arm strength is the least of his worries.



3) The Dolphins could have drafted Brady Quinn - Tony Ugoh - Samson Satele - Yamon Figurs and addressed the same needs with even more emphasis ont he DOlphins most pressing needs. Not to mention, you can insert Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett or Steve Smith as the 2nd pick. Phil Savage, Bill Polian and Ozzie Newsome all valued the players that I just listed. That is a lot of NFL knowledge going against who the Dolphins picked.

Come on, every team values players differently. And you're assuming that Quinn, Rice, Jarrett and Smith, Ugoh and Figurs are all going to be great successes and that Ginn, Beck and Booker aren't. I'm not buying that either. There's also a lot of knowledge going WITH the Dolphins picks, so.......


Everything I just wrote is strictly from a personnel perspective/opinion but one final point, from a business perspective (perhaps Huizenga's perspective), yesterday was a complete disaster. Just horrible. If the Dolphins had taken Quinn with the 9th pick, the franchise would have had the entire community filled with hope and promise. Ticket sales and marketing dollars would have skyrocketed in the short term. Every kid in South Florida would be clamoring for a Quinn jersey for at least the next 2 years. That is without him doing anything on the field, any success and the sky would have been the limit. The Dolphins had a chance to put a face on the franchise and passed.

As evidenced by Huizenga's comments yesterday, Cameron and Mueller's evaluation skills are now officially on watch, let's hope they are right and the DOlphins start to flourish, it will be disappointing if Dom Capers and the defense carry this team to 8-8 records for the next 3 years.

Fortunately, football is about winning games and not selling tickets. And calling Saturday a "complete disaster"......I'm sorry mate, I'm not sure how you can say that? Because a few morons started booing the head coach? That makes it a disaster?

And I don't think Cameron or Mueller's evaluation skills are anywhere close to being "on watch". When you draft 10 players, all of whom might make the roster and then bring in 14 more FA's, with at least one kid - Mkristo Bruce - who has a great shot, then a few booing idiots and clueless espn commentators - step forward Mark May and Sean Salisbury - hardly put Cameron and Mueller on watch.
 
Hey Boomer, I have a few questions for you.

1. If Kalil was still available, do you think we draft him over Satele or do you think we still draft Satele based on fit?

No. Kalil really didn't fit our scheme. You have to wonder how well Kalil can anchor. And whilst someone said that Kalil would add 20lbs, you’d have to question the wisdom in that. First of all, adding weight is no guarantee of increasing anchorage. And it takes Kalil away from what he does best; explosion and short area quickness. And when you talk about him body wise, he's probably maxed out, so adding weight really isn't an option. Satele is much better suited to what we do and his versatility - LG, RG, C - made him much more likely.



2. I'm pretty surprised we have drafted only one oline so far. Apparently Cam and Houck really believe in Alabi. What do you see our starting oline looking like this season. Will they really move Carey? I would hate to break up the one good side of the line that we do have.

I think the interesting thing is that Cameron really hasn't addressed what he's going to do when Alabi returns and whether the move of Shelton specifically is simply a move to alleviate some issues caused by Anthony's surgery, or whether it's more long term. The plan clearly is to move the bigger guys outside - I think they want Toledo to play tackle - and have quicker, smaller guys on the interior.


3. As a Colorado Buffalos fan (I know I shouldn't admit that in public right now), what do you think about drafting J.J. Billingsley with our last pick? He is one of the two seniors on the team (Fenton being the other) that I could see actually making an NFL team. His talent always stood out on the field to me but injuries have held back his progress the last two years. As a sophmore, I thought he was looking like an NFL lock. He may not be better than an UFA type now. I'm just curious because I wouldn't mind seeing a Buffalo make our roster.

Thank you in advance.

Right school, wrong player!!

;)
 
Boomer, I am curious to read your reply to some of these. Particularly:

1) Ted Ginn - If his value is only as a return man was the pick far below value. In other words, if Ginn is not a consistent number 1 or number 2 WR what are your thoughts on using a top 10 pick on him?

I don't think Ginn was drafted to be a #1 WR. He was drafted because he can do things that no-one else can. I think he'll revolutionise that position and he's a kid you can get 12/15 offensive touches a game in different guises.


2) John Beck - Does his low delivery point concern you? Are you concerned the Dolphins are using the exception to the rule (Drew Brees) as their model?

It doesn't concern me at all. And I think Beck and Brees are not that similar. Beck is taller, has better accuracy, is much more mobile and has a stronger arm. I think it's an association assumption because Cam coached him.


I like the Dolphins picks after the first two. Satele and Soliai should contribute next year and the punting job should be Fields' to lose. Booker could provide some value as well on ST and 3rd downs. It will be a concern though if the Dolphins don't have a few every down starters (non Special Teams) from a draft that had 10 picks, four in the first 4 rounds, and coming off of a 6-10 season.

Overall, this draft feels like 1998 to me. Taking a return guy in the 1st (Avery vs. Ginn) some starters/contributors in rounds 2 - 4 (Mixon/Brommel vs, Satele/Soliai) and some guys who make the roster in the other rounds such as Shannon and Bundren. Mixon actually performed at a high level before going ot MInnesota. The real key to this comparison though, is that someone from this draft has to perform at a Pro Bowl level like Patrick Surtain for this draft to even be considered comparable to that one. We all hope that it is either Ginn or Beck but they don't look like that type of player. Thoughts?

I think Beck is a Pro Bowl type player. Booker is the most versatile back in the draft and has arguably the most untapped potential of anyone in the draft after his mismanagement at FSU. Soliai had a 1st round grade by a number of teams, including Miami, and his potential is ridiculous.
 
I think the reason for some of the hate is that if Quinn turns out to be a franchise QB it will validate what a number of the experts have said, that the Dolphins made a mistake in passing on him.

IF Quinn turns out be better than BEck then the Dolphins DID make a mistake. A QB is the Dolphins greatest need and for the team to have passed on the best QB available is inexcusable. If Beck turns out to be better than QUinn, the Dolphins will be vindicated in their decision, thus a number of fans are hoping for Quinn to fail.


But what if Quinn turns out to be an All Pro and Beck and Ginn are solid Pro Bowlers?

That would totally validate what Miami did.

The bottom of bottom lines is that Miami spent MONTHS and MONTHS on this. They had a coach - Terry Shea - spend months with Quinn, they worked him out, they met him, they watched every game he's ever played, they did the same with Beck, they worked him out twice, they interviewed them for hours, etc. and they made the decision based on what they knew.

I think they deserve more than the benefit of the doubt.
 
benefit of the doubt is the perfect reply to this turmoil regarding the draft. from my laymen's viewpoint the dolphins draft makes perfect sense
 
Boomer, thanks for the responses, always insightful. I don't agree with some of what you wrote and my high regard for Ozzie Newsome and Bill Polian has me particularly worried about the Dolphins first two picks, but I hope I am wrong and Ginn and Beck prove to be the key pieces in a championship run.

One particular comment though, I think it is imperative that Ginn is a starting caliber WR (not the 3rd WR for 3 wide sets), he must prove to be a solid second WR (preferably a go-to guy) or picking him ninth was too high, IMHO.

It will be interesting this year................
 
I wrote a 10,000 word draft review in VIP, dude.

;)


It would be great if you would post it here.

p.s. All of this Ginn talk- it's his synergistic effect that I'm most interested in. Taking pressure off of Ronnie Brown and Chambers/Booker/Hagan by drawing double coverage and/or keeping the safeties out of the box. Helping the defense by getting us great field positions on returns, maybe scoring a few. Whether or not he's a true #1 receiver- maybe that's secondary to giving everyone else some breathing room and his ability to make so many other people on the team more productive. If Ginn ends up having great stats, that's wonderful. Maybe, however, his true value won't be measured in numbers alone.
 
It would be great if you would post it here.

p.s. All of this Ginn talk- it's his synergistic effect that I'm most interested in. Take pressure off of Ronnie Brown and Chambers/Booker/Hagan by drawing double coverage and/or keeping the safeties out of the box. Helping the defense by getting us great field positions on returns, maybe scoring a few. Whether or not he's a true #1 receiver- maybe that's secondary to giving everyone else some breathing room and his ability to make so many other people on the team more productive. If Ginn ends up having great stats, that's wonderful. Maybe, however, his true value won't be measured in numbers alone.

a favorite subject... you HAVE to account for him and as Boomer has said, day one, the opposing defensive coordinator will have to specifically defense him... a rookie, without a start... how many others from this draft will command so much attention game one. Every other aspect of the offense will be less defended just by his presence....and the cover corner on the OTHER side needs to fear the reverse....
 
I love how we talk about this masterful smokescreen that basically netted us nothing, much like when we were talking up Braylon Edwards. Nobody was taking Ginn before our pick and it was not thier smokescreen that fooled everybody, it was thier need of a QB or oline. The only reason people thought we were taking Brown or Quinn was we need those type of players.
How silly of the media to think we need a Qb, when one was available.We were lucky to get Beck with this so called master plan, so lets not annoint Mueller as the master manipulator just yet.

Number one, Mueller has a track record of being a very strong manipulator, two first rounders for the pothead Ricky Williams, a high first rounder for a bust Rick Mirer.........thats strong evidence.

But let me say this, if we got exactly who we wanted, regardless of whether you or Mel Kiper thought they were reaches, then his plan worked to perfection.

Remember Dlockz, no one, not even you, knows for sure who the teams in front of us wanted or what they were thinking, it was all conjecture.

It only makes sense to smokescreen who you really want, to maximize your chances of getting them.
 
a favorite subject... you HAVE to account for him and as Boomer has said, day one, the opposing defensive coordinator will have to specifically defense him... a rookie, without a start... how many others from this draft will command so much attention game one. Every other aspect of the offense will be less defended just by his presence....and the cover corner on the OTHER side needs to fear the reverse....

Yup. I keep going back to the home game vs. Buffalo that I was at last year. The Bills should have called it their Rodney Dangerfield defense- no respect. Whitner and Simpson were so close to the line they could probably smell the receivers deodorant and shampoo. People can say what they want regarding Ginn, but it's exciting to just think about what he might bring to the overall performance of the offense.
 
a favorite subject... you HAVE to account for him and as Boomer has said, day one, the opposing defensive coordinator will have to specifically defense him... a rookie, without a start... how many others from this draft will command so much attention game one. Every other aspect of the offense will be less defended just by his presence....and the cover corner on the OTHER side needs to fear the reverse....

Perhaps this will happen, perhaps it won't. Personally, I thought QB, OT and DE were the biggest needs so hopefully the picks (and their plan to shift Carey to LT and rotate their RG to RT) turn out as good as they hoped they would.
 
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