Miami Dolphins’ current view of Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert might surprise you

[BigChief]

This draft is like Eli Rivers and Ben. Ben had best career. Herbert may be like big Ben minus off the field issues.

 

[AL R]

For the record, as much as I like Herbert, I think it's fairly obvious Tua is our top choice and Herbert is the consolation

I kinda get the feeling that in their eyes the gap between the two players isn’t as wide as some fans think.

I don’t have any evidence to back that up, just a gut feeling.

 

[ChambersWI]

I kinda get the feeling that in their eyes the gap between the two players isn’t as wide as some fans think.

I don’t have any evidence to back that up, just a gut feeling.

I've gone on record in saying that the gap between the top 3 is smaller than the game between QB3 and QB4.

Now I think a healthy Tua is clearly the best QB but I do think there are interesting discussions to have

 

[dnespins]

I started looking at Tua tape and honestly, I do not see the slam dunk talent people keep talking about.

you must have watched the uga and clemson tapes. go back and check out games like arkansas st, new mexico st, southern miss and the citadel. tua dominates.

 

[Etrius24]

You mean the games where he plays shitty teams on a team that is absolutely stacked with talent around him...

Bama is so stacked that most weeks it is almost criminal Like when Kramer is fighting Karate against 8 year olds.

 

[Mcganiel]

Here is my view, Herbert and Love can still play football and have a track record of great health. Tua, nahhhh not so much.. lol

 

[ChambersWI]

you must have watched the uga and clemson tapes. go back and check out games like arkansas st, new mexico st, southern miss and the citadel. tua dominates.

I mean it is pretty fair to question Tua in terms of him with how much talent Bama had offensively the last 2 years. Still an insanely good prospect when healthy.

Biggest question to me is that Tua's injuries have come from him needing to be a bit smarter. Not that he is a dumb player far from that. But the injuries all came from Tua not living to play another down.

 

[Etrius24]

Posts get deleted here? wow... All I did was mention the fact that Big Ben was a rapist... ( Which is not in dispute )

 

[Geordie]

TDN have Herbert at 3 and Tua at 6 right now on their big board, think they are crazy tbh but we always knew Herbert would excel in this draft process.

 

[Kyndig]

You leave out that Herbert just doesn't play the position as well as Tua. He's not as accurate, he's not as instinctive, he doesn't feel the rush as well, he doesn't find his second or third option as we well, he doesn't make off script plays as well, and he hasn't had the production Tua has even facing lesser talent. On top of that there are some people that question if his personality is right to be a good leader. There is way more to being a great QB than being tall and athletic. I would rather have the guy who can really play the position.

Everyone of these guys has questions, so you have to acknowledge that one if you want to be fair.

Herbert being poorly coached is a huge deal, and the things that make him inaccurate can potentially be worked on. Specifically, he could have his footwork coached up a bit better which could improve his throwing base and therefore his accuracy.

So in terms of what is his biggest risk, it would be the whole introvert thing, that “It Factor” that people will follow when the chips are down. Truth is, I think that is unknown whether he has it, doesn’t mean that he doesn’t actually have it though. Point is, you can’t really say one way or another definitively whether this is a real issue or not. Aaron Rodgers came out as a fairly introverted guy For example. The best way to develop this “It Factor” is to improve your play on the field so that your confidence improves. If you are in command of the offense, then you can be in command of the team. It’s all confidence based, for how can your teammates and coaches be confident in you if you are not confident in yourself? I haven’t seen anything yet to indicate with certainty that Herbert won’t develop into a skillful, competent quarterback? It’s certainly possible isn’t it?

Tua on the other hand, is super accurate, and definitely has the “It” factor Which is why so many of us love the idea of seeing him in a Dolphins Uniform.

But his risk is that he may not be able to hold up In the NFL due to injury. That hip injury is a serious one, and does raise some questions and thus it is a very real risk.

Herbert also could have a higher ceiling just because he is further from his potential that Tua is.

So, objectively, I think they are both really good prospects and both have a chance to be elite franchise QB’s. If Tua doesn’t have the Hip injury, then I would be advocating to trade up to the 2nd draft position to draft either he or Joe Burrow depending upon who would go one in that scenario.

But, the injury creates a risk factor, which is why he is likely not the overall number one pick, which is also why you can then realistically consider Herbert as a prospect with just as much potential/risk as Tua.

 

[1Dolfan]

Herbert didnt really look natural throwing the ball at the combine. I couldnt put my finger on it, then Kurt Warner mentioned it looks like hes aiming the football when he throws. which to me doesnt spell like a QB i want to draft at #5

 

[rickd13]

Everyone of these guys has questions, so you have to acknowledge that one if you want to be fair.

Herbert being poorly coached is a huge deal, and the things that make him inaccurate can potentially be worked on. Specifically, he could have his footwork coached up a bit better which could improve his throwing base and therefore his accuracy.

So in terms of what is his biggest risk, it would be the whole introvert thing, that “It Factor” that people will follow when the chips are down. Truth is, I think that is unknown whether he has it, doesn’t mean that he doesn’t actually have it though. Point is, you can’t really say one way or another definitively whether this is a real issue or not. Aaron Rodgers came out as a fairly introverted guy For example. The best way to develop this “It Factor” is to improve your play on the field so that your confidence improves. If you are in command of the offense, then you can be in command of the team. It’s all confidence based, for how can your teammates and coaches be confident in you if you are not confident in yourself? I haven’t seen anything yet to indicate with certainty that Herbert won’t develop into a skillful, competent quarterback? It’s certainly possible isn’t it?

Tua on the other hand, is super accurate, and definitely has the “It” factor Which is why so many of us love the idea of seeing him in a Dolphins Uniform.

But his risk is that he may not be able to hold up In the NFL due to injury. That hip injury is a serious one, and does raise some questions and thus it is a very real risk.

Herbert also could have a higher ceiling just because he is further from his potential that Tua is.

So, objectively, I think they are both really good prospects and both have a chance to be elite franchise QB’s. If Tua doesn’t have the Hip injury, then I would be advocating to trade up to the 2nd draft position to draft either he or Joe Burrow depending upon who would go one in that scenario.

But, the injury creates a risk factor, which is why he is likely not the overall number one pick, which is also why you can then realistically consider Herbert as a prospect with just as much potential/risk as Tua.

The problem with much of the thinking on here is that many believe that all these QBs are equal. "If we don't get this guy then we can get the next guy". Sure you could get "a guy" but that doesn't mean that the next guy is as good as the others. There has to be a pecking order in any front office's draft plans. When it comes to the QB position, having "a guy" just isn't good enough. The front office should identify their guy and do what ever they can do to get that guy. For example if Cincinnati, Washington and Detroit all refuse to make a trade with you and two of those teams take QBs then there really isn't anything you can do about that but to move on to plan B, but until that happens, Miami should be doing what it can to ensure the selection. To me, I feel it's obvious that Tua is the best QB prospect in this draft, but the Dolphins better be all in on whoever they deem to be the guy. They better not just be willing to accept whoever "falls" to them.

 

[rickd13]

Herbert didnt really look natural throwing the ball at the combine. I couldnt put my finger on it, then Kurt Warner mentioned it looks like hes aiming the football when he throws. which to me doesnt spell like a QB i want to draft at #5

Herbert looked fine throwing the ball. Even exceptional at times, but I think most people expected that. It's when Herbert is moved off his spot or he has to go off script is when the flaws in his game really show up. Hell, even when he is on script he gets erratic during actual game situations. I really like the kid and I think he is really working hard to get better. If Miami ends up drafting him I will pulling hard for him , but I am really skeptical that he will ever be an elite type QB. I hope I'm wrong because I like him so much.

 

[Kyndig]

The problem with much of the thinking on here is that many believe that all these QBs are equal. "If we don't get this guy then we can get the next guy". Sure you could get "a guy" but that doesn't mean that the next guy is as good as the others. There has to be a pecking order in any front office's draft plans. When it comes to the QB position, having "a guy" just isn't good enough. The front office should identify their guy and do what ever they can do to get that guy. For example if Cincinnati, Washington and Detroit all refuse to make a trade with you and two of those teams take QBs then there really isn't anything you can do about that but to move on to plan B, but until that happens, Miami should be doing what it can to ensure the selection. To me, I feel it's obvious that Tua is the best QB prospect in this draft, but the Dolphins better be all in on whoever they deem to be the guy. They better not just be willing to accept whoever "falls" to them.

Do you play poker? Or do deals in business?

Applying these principles, it is risk vs reward.

Risk:

Tua - Durability, can’t hold up in the NFL. Might be fine, injury seems like its healing, but was horrific, and the players in NFL that will be sacking him are only faster and stronger, so it is a real risk.

Herbert - Hasn’t unlocked his true potential, perhaps he doesn’t have the confidence needed to succeed at the next level.

Love. Really regressed last year, lots of interceptions, but year before was really excellent.

Reward:

Tua. Has shown confidence, Accuracy, and it Factor. Has brought it on the most difficult stage in college football. Natural leader, and an excellent prospect. If he can stay healthy, this guy will be an elite franchise QB. If he can’t, he won’t.

Herbert. Big, cannon arm, good athelete, high ceiling if you subscribe to the possibility that you can coach him up. Hasn’t demonstrated what Tua has yet, but could have an even higher ceiling, and isn’t a high risk prospect. Tons of upside.

Love. Highest risk, but also a very high ceiling.

So, as long as the cost is the 5th pick in this draft, Herbert & Tua are about equal, if both are available, I probably roll with Tua, just because you’ve seen him display the characteristics you want to see, and Herbert you haven’t Yet, but doens’t mean he can’t.

However, if the cost is our 5th round pick plus one of our other 1st round picks, plus other picks either this year or next, then with the risk vs other option with Herbert, I don’t think that price is a good deal for us.

But as you say, if FO doesn’t believe in Herbert, then maybe you trade up for your guy if you are worried, although the same points that hold true for our evaluation hold true for the evaluations behind us, so who is going to trade up in front of us?

Also, smoke screens. Who knows what teams really think this time of year, but My point is these prospects might be closer rated than you think when you evaluate it as I‘Ve stated above? Just applying critical logic, it means nothing and is only opinion, but fun to consider?

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Sure you could get "a guy" but that doesn't mean that the next guy is as good as the others. There has to be a pecking order in any front office's draft plans. When it comes to the QB position, having "a guy" just isn't good enough. The front office should identify their guy and do what ever they can do to get that guy. For example if Cincinnati, Washington and Detroit all refuse to make a trade with you and two of those teams take QBs then there really isn't anything you can do about that but to move on to plan B, but until that happens, Miami should be doing what it can to ensure the selection. To me, I feel it's obvious that Tua is the best QB prospect in this draft, but the Dolphins better be all in on whoever they deem to be the guy. They better not just be willing to accept whoever "falls" to them.

What's the difference between "If we don't get this guy then we can get the next guy" and "move on to plan B?"