More Tua Recognition

[nick1]

I’m just jumping in here but I believe you suggested his completion is only high because he throws it short correct?

 

[Vaark]

No dislike of Tua the man. I like very much the person he is. However, the cultish Tua behavior, or Tuanon doesn't allow for dissent.

1. Tua > Murray. LOL.
2. Tua's completion % is so high because his IAY is so low. Increase IAY per attempt and decrease completion %. Not brain surgery.

Correction:
You mean Tua's completion percentage is still so surprisingly high DESPITE the worst pass protection OL by far and the Fins receivers who lead the league in dropsies

 

[Lionstone]

Completion % doesn't mean much when you have the 2nd lowest (Goff #1) IAY per throw in the sport.

The Patriots used it in the past to crush the best Ds in the league. IAY is a interesting stat, but it is not the be all. It is a simple question. Can you use a ball control offense with big play potential to beat the best teams in the league. I think the answer is yes. The only questions is can you get enough out of the OL to make it happen.

 

[Delvin]

I’m just jumping in here but I believe you suggested his competition is only high because he throws it short correct?

Short passes have higher completion %. You throw shorter passes, you get a higher completion %.

Here are the numbers from a study. Notice the decline in completion % as air yards increase. Obviously, this makes logical sense, right?

Yards per Attempt: Where Does it Go Wrong?

Yards per Attempt is the basic statistic around which the passing game should be measured. It forms the base of my favorite predictive statistic (Net Yards per Attempt) and my favorite explanatory statistic (Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt). But it’s not perfect. In theory, Yards per Attempt is a...

www.footballperspective.com

Category	Att	Cmp	Cmp%	Y/A	Air Yards	YAC	YPC
Neg	4526	3554	78.5	5.09	-3.16	9.64	6.48
0	1468	728	49.6	3.09	0	6.23	6.23
1	1412	1056	74.8	4.84	1	5.47	6.47
2	1946	1336	68.7	4.5	2	4.56	6.56
3	2220	1584	71.4	5.45	3	4.64	7.64
4	2400	1644	68.5	5.36	4	3.83	7.83
5	2736	1816	66.4	5.81	5	3.75	8.75
6	2154	1424	66.1	6.21	6	3.4	9.4
7	1648	1062	64.4	6.62	7	3.28	10.28
8	1410	878	62.3	7.01	8	3.26	11.26
9	1228	750	61.1	7.39	9	3.09	12.09
10	1244	662	53.2	6.93	10	3.02	13.02
11	1046	626	59.8	8.42	11	3.07	14.07
12	906	506	55.8	8.22	12	2.71	14.71
13	876	528	60.3	9.74	13	3.16	16.16
14	790	396	50.1	8.84	14	3.63	17.63
15	848	434	51.2	9.94	15	4.41	19.41
16-19	2376	1230	51.8	11.41	17.32	4.72	22.04
20-24	1654	626	37.8	10.15	21.74	5.09	26.83
25-29	932	344	36.9	12.25	26.88	6.32	33.2
30-39	1094	322	29.4	12.35	34	7.97	41.97
40+	654	158	24.2	12.43	45.6	5.84	51.44

 

[Delvin]

The Patriots used it in the past to crush the best Ds in the league. IAY is a interesting stat, but it is not the be all. It is a simple question. Can you use a ball control offense with big play potential to beat the best teams in the league. I think the answer is yes. The only questions is can you get enough out of the OL to make it happen.

Good post.

I think it's certainly a winning formula IF your defense is very strong. Can your offense adjust out of game management mode when it needs to? IMO, I didn't see much of that from Tua when the defense wasn't holding teams down earlier in the season.

 

[dan the fin]

You cherry picked a player's good 3 games and cherry picked a player's bad 3 games, and made a comparison. Hate to break this to you, but that's the very definition of cherry picking stats actually.

The lesson here is you can only cherry pick stats for Tua if it shows he good.

No I used thise because they are since Tua came back from injury and the 3 most recent games. It provides a sample size. As I don't feel like breaking down every game from 3 guys.

Fact is you just hate it that Tua is getting better and is already one of the most accurate QBs in football. But you want to use a stat like IAY to try and trash Tua. Tua is just an accurate QB. He is also top 5 in completion % of passes over 20 yards on the season. And the biggest reason his IAY is low is because of Miami's pewee level Oline.

 

[fishfanmiami]

The one member who just came to **** on a positive thread can no longer comment here

 

[Vaark]

 

[NBP81]

Short passes have higher completion %. You throw shorter passes, you get a higher completion %.

Here are the numbers from a study. Notice the decline in completion % as air yards increase. Obviously, this makes logical sense, right?

Yards per Attempt: Where Does it Go Wrong?

Yards per Attempt is the basic statistic around which the passing game should be measured. It forms the base of my favorite predictive statistic (Net Yards per Attempt) and my favorite explanatory statistic (Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt). But it’s not perfect. In theory, Yards per Attempt is a...

www.footballperspective.com

Category	Att	Cmp	Cmp%	Y/A	Air Yards	YAC	YPC
Neg	4526	3554	78.5	5.09	-3.16	9.64	6.48
0	1468	728	49.6	3.09	0	6.23	6.23
1	1412	1056	74.8	4.84	1	5.47	6.47
2	1946	1336	68.7	4.5	2	4.56	6.56
3	2220	1584	71.4	5.45	3	4.64	7.64
4	2400	1644	68.5	5.36	4	3.83	7.83
5	2736	1816	66.4	5.81	5	3.75	8.75
6	2154	1424	66.1	6.21	6	3.4	9.4
7	1648	1062	64.4	6.62	7	3.28	10.28
8	1410	878	62.3	7.01	8	3.26	11.26
9	1228	750	61.1	7.39	9	3.09	12.09
10	1244	662	53.2	6.93	10	3.02	13.02
11	1046	626	59.8	8.42	11	3.07	14.07
12	906	506	55.8	8.22	12	2.71	14.71
13	876	528	60.3	9.74	13	3.16	16.16
14	790	396	50.1	8.84	14	3.63	17.63
15	848	434	51.2	9.94	15	4.41	19.41
16-19	2376	1230	51.8	11.41	17.32	4.72	22.04
20-24	1654	626	37.8	10.15	21.74	5.09	26.83
25-29	932	344	36.9	12.25	26.88	6.32	33.2
30-39	1094	322	29.4	12.35	34	7.97	41.97
40+	654	158	24.2	12.43	45.6	5.84	51.44

So using YOUR chart... Tua with a 6.5 IAY should have a 65% comp% and a 6.4 YPA? Seems to me he's having much more success than the average no?

Also, this study was conducted over a single season almost 9 years ago... Low sample size and outdated.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Huh? How does games played automatically average the stat down?

I'm not saying they suck, but when you are 2nd lowest in IAY per attempt. Using a completion % stat is kind of cheap.

Well then this should satisfy you:



Tua is 6th best in CPOE.

 

[VBCheeseGrater]

So remind me, after the one season was the media already all up on Murray's nuts like they are now? My knee jerk reaction is to cry double standard but then I remember, Murray is also way more elusive so there's something to consider.

 

[Geordie]

So remind me, after the one season was the media already all up on Murray's nuts like they are now? My knee jerk reaction is to cry double standard but then I remember, Murray is also way more elusive so there's something to consider.

They were, but personally I don't begrudge Murray at all, think he's a special talent. I just think Tua is too and he's 2-0 if match ups when they've played each other :)

 

[Marino2.0]

As an early-and-often Tua cheerleader, I just hope y’all stick around on the bandwagon when he stops playing like an All Pro. He’s 23 and playing behind the worst OL in football. This is a nice streak, but he’s going to come back down to Earth. He’s neither a bum nor a superstar. Yet. Patience.

 

[EJay]

As I watch more and more detailed all 22 breakdowns on the offensive line play, the impressive performance by Tua becomes more and more impressive.

Yep. Tua seems to be surviving and thriving better than most when he doesn’t have “Alabama open” or “Alabama blocking”.

 

[EJay]

So remind me, after the one season was the media already all up on Murray's nuts like they are now? My knee jerk reaction is to cry double standard but then I remember, Murray is also way more elusive so there's something to consider.

And despite that advantage for Murray and disadvantage for Tua — Kyler wasn’t able to outperform.

That just tells you how much better Tua was as a traditional pocket passing QB.

And Tua doesn’t have anyone as good as DeAndre Hopkins and is working with a worse o-line and worse rush attack.

There’s something to consider as well.