PFF Mock Draft Sim

[Feverdream]

Here's my latest... I only set it for 5 rounds.

Made several trades... moved up and down. I don't think any of this is unrealistic; if a player dropped too far, I just ignored them.

	9.	Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
	18.	K’Lavon Chaisson OLB LSU
	20.	Xavier McKinney S Alabama
	26.	Cesar Ruiz C Michigan
	52.	Jacob Eason QB Washington
	60.	Prince Tega Wanogho OT Auburn
	128.	A.J. Dillon RB Boston College
	154.	Justin Strnad ILB Wake Forest
	173.	James Proche WR SMU

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Wanted to see what it'd look like without trades. Getting Wills and Becton would be huge. I know a lot of people will hate the Hurts pick, and that's fine. Winfield Jr and Kmet are excellent prospects at otherwise weak positions, and I didn't miss out on WR - getting Tyler Johnson and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

PFF is a lot closer to my board than the other mock sites, so I wasn't as happy with the late value.

 

[NBP81]

Wanted to see what it'd look like without trades. Getting Wills and Becton would be huge. I know a lot of people will hate the Hurts pick, and that's fine. Winfield Jr and Kmet are excellent prospects at otherwise weak positions, and I didn't miss out on WR - getting Tyler Johnson and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

PFF is a lot closer to my board than the other mock sites, so I wasn't as happy with the late value.

I think when you pick a QB as your future starter, it doesnt really make sense to pick him outside of the 1st round for a couple of reasons. First that 5th year option is huge for QBs, it could amout to up to 40M in cap space by the time he gets there. You're essentially granted a 5 year window instead of 4. Then there's this simple gut check that, if picking your starting QB in the 1st round is such a major reach, maybe its time re-evaluate why you think this guy as a future in the league.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

Wanted to see what it'd look like without trades. Getting Wills and Becton would be huge. I know a lot of people will hate the Hurts pick, and that's fine. Winfield Jr and Kmet are excellent prospects at otherwise weak positions, and I didn't miss out on WR - getting Tyler Johnson and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

PFF is a lot closer to my board than the other mock sites, so I wasn't as happy with the late value.

If we took Hurts in the 1st round I would focus ALL my attention on the Hurricanes...

I'd be done with the Phins until Grier, Flores and Hurts are off the payroll and out of the building.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Wanted to see what it'd look like without trades. Getting Wills and Becton would be huge. I know a lot of people will hate the Hurts pick, and that's fine. Winfield Jr and Kmet are excellent prospects at otherwise weak positions, and I didn't miss out on WR - getting Tyler Johnson and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

PFF is a lot closer to my board than the other mock sites, so I wasn't as happy with the late value.

Definitely a fun exercise. When you put the settings on 100 percent public, it makes for a more realistic option IMO. No longer able to get some of the steals, like Hurts at #70 etc.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

If we took Hurts in the 1st round I would focus ALL my attention on the Hurricanes...

I'd be done with the Phins until Grier, Flores and Hurts are off the payroll and out of the building.

While I obviously don't share that feeling, I understand it. Most QB's fail, and Hurts likely will, as well, but I think people are grossly underselling his chances.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I think when you pick a QB as your future starter, it doesnt really make sense to pick him outside of the 1st round for a couple of reasons. First that 5th year option is huge for QBs, it could amout to up to 40M in cap space by the time he gets there. You're essentially granted a 5 year window instead of 4. Then there's this simple gut check that, if picking your starting QB in the 1st round is such a major reach, maybe its time re-evaluate why you think this guy as a future in the league.

Precisely. If the Dolphins don't draft a quarterback in the first round this year it will basically scream that they have no idea what they are doing. There are always counter examples, in this case the 3rd, 4th and 6th round guys. Who cares? When I first joined this site I was startled by the preoccupation with outliers. Somebody would post an outlier example and think they won the argument. That type of thing is popular on bar stools. Guy at the next stool will toast and say, "Good point." Then the conversation shifts elsewhere. I have never been popular in that setting because I'll say it is not a good point, it is a meaningless deflection. The idea is to take the correct approach time and time again under undistracted confidence that it steadily pays off.

The concept is probably easier to grasp for me as a gambler. I can't count how many times a certain system or angle was in a huge slump and my friends were bailing on it. Nope, the application is sensible. I've seen slumps like this in the spreadsheets from years and decades ago. Keep plugging.

I may not like Justin Herbert but drafting him would be considerably less of a downer than overthinking the situation and not drafting a quarterback at all. My faith in this new regime would plummet.

 

[NBP81]

When I first joined this site I was startled by the preoccupation with outliers. Somebody would post an outlier example and think they won the argument.

I was one of them. Though at that time I was looking at the game as a fan.

The concept is probably easier to grasp for me as a gambler. I can't count how many times a certain system or angle was in a huge slump and my friends were bailing on it. Nope, the application is sensible. I've seen slumps like this in the spreadsheets from years and decades ago. Keep plugging.

The concept only became obvious to me when I quit playing poker TBH, I just dont have the brain proccessor to run more than 4 tables anymore online and that volume simply doesnt quite cut it anymore, I could crush live games but the schedule simply doesnt fit. Only then did I start paying attention to the game of football(from an analytical standpoint) and its baffling to me how much NFL teams have no idea WTF they're doing. Im still not sure if I liked being a fan with blind hope better or knowing that they're screwing up over and over again...

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

While I obviously don't share that feeling, I understand it. Most QB's fail, and Hurts likely will, as well, but I think people are grossly underselling his chances.

He needs to go the Ravens, or maybe even the Seahawks...

If he's successful, God bless him. I see him making a living as a backup QB...nothing wrong with that. I just don't want a QB like him early.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

Definitely a fun exercise. When you put the settings on 100 percent public, it makes for a more realistic option IMO. No longer able to get some of the BARGAINS, like Hurts at #70 etc.

Fixed it for you....

 

[The Ghost]

I think when you pick a QB as your future starter, it doesnt really make sense to pick him outside of the 1st round for a couple of reasons. First that 5th year option is huge for QBs, it could amout to up to 40M in cap space by the time he gets there. You're essentially granted a 5 year window instead of 4.

I think the opposite is true for QBs. That fifth year option is more for guys who don’t “take off” and are instead adequate. Basically all the guys who went ahead of Lamar Jackson 2 years ago, qualify.

I don’t see a scenario where you hold a guy to that 5th year when he’s really worth an extension much sooner.

KC could drag Mahomes along for 2 more years and then tag him essentially locking him up for 3 more years at probably a quarter of what he’s going to get in an extension.

Guys like Mahomes, Jackson and Watson aren’t seeing that option year. It’s not good business.

We can call it the Trubisky option.

Unless your dealing with a guy who’s constantly hurt, not too useful.

 

[NBP81]

I think the opposite is true for QBs. That fifth year option is more for guys who don’t “take off” and are instead adequate. Basically all the guys who went ahead of Lamar Jackson 2 years ago, qualify.

I don’t see a scenario where you hold a guy to that 5th year when he’s really worth an extension much sooner.

KC could drag Mahomes along for 2 more years and then tag him essentially locking him up for 3 more years at probably a quarter of what he’s going to get in an extension.

Guys like Mahomes, Jackson and Watson aren’t seeing that option year. It’s not good business.

We can call it the Trubisky option.

Unless your dealing with a guy who’s constantly hurt, not too useful.

Im working under the assumption that 5 years is better than 4, but you bring up a good point that I really have no anwser for ATM. *If* a team can extend a 2nd round QB as soon as year 3 and a 1st round QB as soon as year 4, then the logic still holds... *if* on the other hand the 5th year option doesnt figure into when you can actually extend the player's contract, then you're right, it factors into the equation. @Kdawg954 knows this for sure.

But this is still valid regardless...

Then there's this simple gut check that, if picking your starting QB in the 1st round is such a major reach, maybe its time re-evaluate why you think this guy as a future in the league.

 

[Jed]

This would be pretty amazing, a couple of trade downs load up the lines

 

[Lovethefish]

Wanted to see what it'd look like without trades. Getting Wills and Becton would be huge. I know a lot of people will hate the Hurts pick, and that's fine. Winfield Jr and Kmet are excellent prospects at otherwise weak positions, and I didn't miss out on WR - getting Tyler Johnson and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

PFF is a lot closer to my board than the other mock sites, so I wasn't as happy with the late value.

Would be surprised if a top 4 OT falls to #18 but possible.
My preference remains #5 Tua, trade up from #18 with 2021 ammo for an OT.

 

[mmikel30]