I applaud you not jumping to conclusions about Lawrence and Wilson before they've played a down. For me, I'll leave them out until I have a feel for how quickly they're adapting and how well their teams' new coaches are able to instill their offenses. At the top, it's pretty clear to me that Mahomes, Allen and Watson are a tier of their own and separate from the rest as of last year. I'd look at Herbert, Burrow, Carr, Tannehill and Mayfield as pretty solid in the next tier, with Jackson and Wentz being the wildcards. After that I'd put Tua at the back of that middle tier, but he's a bit of a wildcard too and might move to the middle or even higher portion of this tier if things really click for him. IMHO, Big Ben, Cam, and Bridgewater's bodies have given out on them and they're not the QB's they used to be. Even if they manage to put together a good season, I can't see them putting together two more.
As projections go, I have very high expectations for both Lawrence and Wilson, but a lot more confidence in Urban Meyer's offense than Robert Salah's offense. The Jets have a defensive head coach and a long history of .... well .... screwing up QB's. If Wilson instantly succeeds we're all in trouble, because that means he's very very good to do that as a Jet.
At the end of the day, we have a solid young QB, and he should improve this year and for the foreseeable future. IF we're able to maintain our defensive dominance, Tua will be the astute game manager that we need to build a very good football team, even if he doesn't put up eye-popping video game numbers like people predicted when we drafted him.