Readjusting my prediction on the Fins record | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Readjusting my prediction on the Fins record

Feverdream said:
That is only true to an extent... the initial line is based upon what the book thinks will happen AND what they expect bettors to wager upon. ...and it is true that most bettors are a bit better educated on this than the average fan.
Now... a line that moves during the week IS based upon where the money is going.
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You are correct in fixing my lazy post. I guess my point was, the fans’ money essentially sets the final line and those lines are proven quite wrong with hindsight on many games.
 
ANUFan said:
I understand the need to want to upgrade your score prediciton.
But even 7-9 as a best case scenerio is a tough act for them to pull off.
Essentially they need to win 4 more games this season.

The still have:

Rams
Cardinals
Jets
Bengals
Chiefs
Patriots
Raiders
Bills
Chargers
Broncos

The only teams that could/should be wins are

1) Jets
2) Maybe Bengals
3) Maybe Rams
4) Maybe Cardinals

Jets are the only gimmie on that remaining schedule. Everything else is going to be scratching and clawing.
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You don’t think they can beat the Patriots next time?
 
ForksPhin said:
You don’t think they can beat the Patriots next time?
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I'm still shocked Denver was able to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots with Brady(oddly enough), i think, were more beatable than the Patriots with Cam.
Those mobile QB's have always given us a hard time.

It's no concidence, in my mind, our losses have been against Cam, Allen, and Wilson.

All our wins against more stationary QBs(Minshew, Flacco, Grapollo).
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Agree, but progress comes in steps. Lost to BUF, NE, SEA - all close. That's remarkable for Miami. I'd love to beat the Rams, but losing by 7? Still progress and shows the team can compete with good teams. I think all of us are looking forward to '21, although I must add, how long has it been since Miami 'only' had 4-5 big holes?
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I agree we're making progress and specially the Oline with 3 rookies doing a decent job. I think part of what's giving people hope is that we have Tua waiting in the wings which is something we haven't have for years and years. A QB most people feel we can win with and an Oline to help him out. Getting him some weapons has to be the next move and plugging a few holes on defense. We're not far imo but not good enough yet to compete with the best teams in a regular basis. But the hope is there if we make the right moves in the off season.
 
I could see that. That win over the 49ers was so impressive. Especially since SF rebounded by beating the Rams.

Since Howard and Jones have been together, the defense has taken a huge step.

I do wonder if slow starts to the season will continue.
 
I’ll say it again WHY DO WE ALWAYS CONSIDER NE A LOSS?? More often than not it’s a split, why are we afraid to predict the split????

Wondering why it bugs me so much? I hear it here as well (I’m from NE). Always considering Miami 2 wins, we split and amnesia settles in the following year and they predict the same thing. Why don’t we all predict split since that is the usual outcome?
 
ANUFan said:
I'm still shocked Denver was able to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots with Brady(oddly enough), i think, were more beatable than the Patriots with Cam.
Those mobile QB's have always given us a hard time.

It's no concidence, in my mind, our losses have been against Cam, Allen, and Wilson.

All our wins against more stationary QBs(Minshew, Flacco, Grapollo).
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I feel pretty comfortable in saying we’ll have a different approach for the Pats next time. We played them tight into the 4th quarter (14-11 deficit late) and seemed unprepared in the first half. A lot can change between now and the game, but I think Miami splits with the Pats.
 
ForksPhin said:
I feel pretty comfortable in saying we’ll have a different approach for the Pats next time. We played them tight into the 4th quarter (14-11 deficit late) and seemed unprepared in the first half. A lot can change between now and the game, but I think Miami splits with the Pats.
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Oh! I'm not saying we don't have a chance. We certainly do and will play both the Bills and Patriots better, imo. But it's going to be tough. Especially given those games will have strong playoff implications for all teams..Miami, Bills, and Patriots.

We'll see! We need to get better at taking advantage of field position and limiting turnovers.

We should have beaten the Jets by at least 42-0..

Easily left 2-4 TDs on the field.

Can't do that against stronge appoinents.
 
ANUFan said:
Oh! I'm not saying we don't have a chance. We certainly do and will play both the Bills and Patriots better, imo. But it's going to be tough. Especially given those games will have strong playoff implications for all teams..Miami, Bills, and Patriots.

We'll see! We need to get better at taking advantage of field position and limiting turnovers.

We should have beaten the Jets by at least 42-0..

Easily left 2-4 TDs on the field.

Can't do that against stronge appoinents.
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Agree with all of this.

if they played a cleaner game yesterday, it easily could have been 42-0. But a 24-point win in today’s NFL is impressive no matter the analysis after the fact. Even against the Jets & Adam Gase.

Either way, it‘s nice to be debating whether the Phins could have a better record than their current 3-3 (if Byron Jones doesn’t get injured on the first series, does the Buffalo game turn out differently?) and debating whether they‘re a +.500 team.....vs. debating how historically terrible they were at 0-7 in 2019.
 
ForksPhin said:
Agree with all of this.

if they played a cleaner game yesterday, it easily could have been 42-0. But a 24-point win in today’s NFL is impressive no matter the analysis after the fact. Even against the Jets & Adam Gase.

Either way, it‘s nice to be debating whether the Phins could have a better record than their current 3-3 (if Byron Jones doesn’t get injured on the first series, does the Buffalo game turn out differently?) and debating whether they‘re a +.500 team.....vs. debating how historically terrible they were at 0-7 in 2019.
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It's a great conversation to be having instead of FIRE EVERYONE....although if we lose our next game that will likely be the topic
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
I could see that. That win over the 49ers was so impressive. Especially since SF rebounded by beating the Rams.

Since Howard and Jones have been together, the defense has taken a huge step.

I do wonder if slow starts to the season will continue.
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Impressive?

A 9ers team who had only beaten NYG and the Jets. Had both CBs out against Miami. And Garofalo playing the perfect part of a .500 QB.

They are a far cry from the February 2020 SB team in October 2020 regular season.

It's a game Miami should be expected to win.
 
ANUFan said:
I understand the need to want to upgrade your score prediciton.
But even 7-9 as a best case scenerio is a tough act for them to pull off.
Essentially they need to win 4 more games this season.

The still have:

Rams
Cardinals
Jets
Bengals
Chiefs
Patriots
Raiders
Bills
Chargers
Broncos

The only teams that could/should be wins are

1) Jets
2) Maybe Bengals
3) Maybe Rams
4) Maybe Cardinals

Jets are the only gimmie on that remaining schedule. Everything else is going to be scratching and clawing.
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So....your saying we can't beat the Broncos? Or the Chargers? They should definitely be in the maybe category.
The Patsies should also be a maybe.....
 
DolfanDuBbZ~ said:
Impressive?

A 9ers team who had only beaten NYG and the Jets. Had both CBs out against Miami. And Garofalo playing the perfect part of a .500 QB.

They are a far cry from the February 2020 SB team in October 2020 regular season.

It's a game Miami should be expected to win.
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Did anyone expect 43-17? Anyway you slice it, injuries or not, that is an impressive win for Miami.
 
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