Running and defense wins championships

[Mach2]

Usually you'll get a glimpse of who is who on a situationnal basis... 1st and 10 run/pass ratio on its own is pretty indicative of teams overall strategy for example. Nevertheless, your buzzword is the actual important factor here. I dont know that I want a pass first team or a run first team, I want the team that nails down the right frequencies in most situations. I would flat out have no problem with my team running 80% of the time on 2nd and 3 just as I would have no problem with my team throwing the ball 80% of the time on 2nd and 7+...

There's a lot of work to be done in that area, while I have no idea if those numbers are correct, I'd rather use that strategy on 2nd down than just go 60/40 pass/rush. Balance is much more complicated than most people think, at least in a game theory setting...

Teams go out of their way to not have those types of tendencies though. That is what "balance" is all about.

Irrespective of down/distance, teams try to avoid doing the same thing regularly enough in any particular situation, that it becomes easier to defend.

This is not true so much within a single game, as it is an ongoing part of gameplans throughout the year.

 

[Mach2]

Usually you'll get a glimpse of who is who on a situationnal basis... 1st and 10 run/pass ratio on its own is pretty indicative of teams overall strategy for example. Nevertheless, your buzzword is the actual important factor here. I dont know that I want a pass first team or a run first team, I want the team that nails down the right frequencies in most situations. I would flat out have no problem with my team running 80% of the time on 2nd and 3 just as I would have no problem with my team throwing the ball 80% of the time on 2nd and 7+...

There's a lot of work to be done in that area, while I have no idea if those numbers are correct, I'd rather use that strategy on 2nd down than just go 60/40 pass/rush. Balance is much more complicated than most people think, at least in a game theory setting...

as an addition to my prior response, I would also point out that when I said teams go out of their way not to have those tendencies, there is a caveat to the example you give of 2nd and 3.

Running a preponderance of the time in itself isn't necessarily a tendency.

There are many options for "running" the ball. Off tackle, pitch, pulling guard sweeps, counters, etc are all different looks that are used to minimize the effectiveness of any keys the D may be reading.

 

[NBP81]

Teams go out of their way to not have those types of tendencies though. That is what "balance" is all about.

Irrespective of down/distance, teams try to avoid doing the same thing regularly enough in any particular situation, that it becomes easier to defend.

This is not true so much within a single game, as it is an ongoing part of gameplans throughout the year.

as an addition to my prior response, I would also point out that when I said teams go out of their way not to have those tendencies, there is a caveat to the example you give of 2nd and 3.

Running a preponderance of the time in itself isn't necessarily a tendency.

There are many options for "running" the ball. Off tackle, pitch, pulling guard sweeps, counters, etc are all different looks that are used to minimize the effectiveness of any keys the D may be reading.

I'll just define what I think balance is and we can go from there...

The perfect balance in any given situation prevents your opponent from exploiting you. In other words, any decision he makes yields the same expected value. Lets take 2nd and 3 for example. What is the frequency that yields the most desired outcome in that situation? If you're running 100% of the time, you'll end up getting stuffed most of the time because you're predictable, if you pass 100% of the time, you wont get optimal results there either because you are too predictable.

At 2nd and 3, I wouldnt be surprised at all if the optimal strategy would be 75% run, 25% pass... I think at those rates, the defense might cheat on the run often enough that you'd get signficant gains through the air, by catching the D off guard, to offset for the times you get stuffed.

2nd and 7+ would probably benefit from a ~ 80% pass, 20% run strategy...

Again, Im using fictionnal numbers to illustrate my point, studying these things is a hobby and figuring those frequencies out would amount to a full time job + overtime... But getting a ballpark isnt that difficult.

Balance doesnt need to be close to 50/50, it needs to neutralize the opponents strategy.

 

[39wildman]

Good running game w good ol and wr. top 10 qb who can handle pressure when game is on line is important...plus good defense who can make stop at critical point doing games is superbowl team.

 

[FINMAN1]

There are many options for "running" the ball. Off tackle, pitch, pulling guard sweeps, counters, etc are all different looks that are used to minimize the effectiveness of any keys the D may be reading.

And also.....making one running play LOOK like another running play, until it's too late for the defense.

 

[Mach2]

And also.....making one running play LOOK like another running play, until it's too late for the defense.

All these things make using a base statistic like run/pass ratio such an oversimplification, that it is really useless other than on a very superficial level.

Lets be honest. When there is only 6-7% difference in the extremes, situational differences make it almost moot, unless you go far deeper in the analysis.

 

[SkapePhin]

Speaking of running and championships, 2 former Dolphins running backs reunite after the super bowl

 

[russianbear]

at the end of the day you still need a qb that you can feel comfortable getting you a first down on 3rd and 5+ , last drive with the ball in your hand kind of stuff

kc could run the ball and a lot if it had to do with scheme

you don't have to be the best defense in the nfl if you can have situational discipline and generally outscore your opponent

you can't fake the qb though, you just can't

 

[SammySmif]

I bet burrow or tua would have made the throw that jimmyg missed. Qb matters. So does oline. Those are two extremely important things to have. We had williams here and didn’t even think he was that good because we didnt have the 2 things i just mentioned.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I bet burrow or tua would have made the throw that jimmyg missed. Qb matters. So does oline. Those are two extremely important things to have. We had williams here and didn’t even think he was that good because we didnt have the 2 things i just mentioned.

Not saying you're wrong, but that wasn't an easy throw

 

[SammySmif]

Not saying you're wrong, but that wasn't an easy throw

Exactly. Thats why you need an elite qb.

 

[FINMAN1]

Back to the original topic, because I haven't read 30+ pages...........The 49ers had a chance to win that game with just over 5 minutes to go. All they had to do was put that #2 ranked Running game in action, and run out the clock. Didn't happen.
Plus, the wrong Defense showed up! The Chiefs got the stops when needed.........the 49ers didn't, and they had a MUCH better ranked "D" than the Chiefs.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Exactly. Thats why you need an elite qb.

Not saying it was tough due to ability. Tough due to pressure. Not sure a top passer could have done that

 

[39wildman]

I bet burrow or tua would have made the throw that jimmyg missed. Qb matters. So does oline. Those are two extremely important things to have. We had williams here and didn’t even think he was that good because we didnt have the 2 things i just mentioned.

so u think Borrow and Tua is going be better than Jimmy G. college football to pros. jimmy g was under lot pressure in 4th qtr.

 

[ChitownPhins28]

Mahomes just showed that a great QB on a good team can beat an average QB on a great team. The 49ers had everything but a great QB and lost cuz when it counted, their QB couldn't make the big throw.