If Sarkisian has turned down the Texas job, I tend to agree with you that Saban has told him he is going to retire. Texas is an excellent job because they have basically unlimited financial resources and the right head coach will be able to have his pick of instate recruits and several top recruits from around the country.
‘it wouldn’t make much sense to turn down the job at Texas unless he just prefers to be a highly paid OC or he has been told Saban is retiring and he will be the next head coach at Alabama.