SI: Tannehill to be most improved QB in 2014 | Page 6 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

SI: Tannehill to be most improved QB in 2014

My 9 year old nephew uses the term "actually" as well when he it trying to make a point.
Gravity said:
Actually if his improvement follows the same trajectory it did last season, he still won't be any better than average.
Click to expand...
 
Spiff said:
I disagree. Tannehill went from 12 TDs and 13 INTs in 2012 to 24 TDs and 17 INTs in 2013, his completion percentage from 58.3 to 60.4, his QB rating from 76.1 to 81.7.

Same trajectory means 48 TDs. That would be a lot better than average.
Click to expand...
I'm taking any and all high-dollar bets on that one. Who's first? ;)
 
Gravity said:
I'm taking any and all high-dollar bets on that one. Who's first? ;)
Click to expand...

dr_phil_you_need_help-1.jpg


poor guy
 
ConvenientTruth said:
If you take his current "trajectory" He's hitting 63 completion percentage, 86 passer rating and the mid 30's in TD's...I'll take that...

But if you add in better protection, another year with the WR core and potentially a better OC the trajectory increases. The guy has been performing with significant handicaps his first two seasons...a nothing WR core in year one and a swinging gate o-line in year two....and Sherman.
Click to expand...
Well at least there's someone who tries to attack the evidence and not the witness. :)

An 86 QB rating is average, and the Dolphins number of rushing TDs went from 15 to 8, from 2012 to 2013, which means that 7 of the 12 more TD passes Tannehill threw were essentially a substitution of passing for rushing TDs that were scored the year before, rather than anything done in addition to what he did in terms of TD passes in his rookie season.

Moreover, here's a bit on the repeatability of TD passes from year to year:

Are certain types of passing touchdowns more predictable than others? For example, if a quarterback throws a lot of short touchdown passes, what does that mean for his future production: are those less or more likely to repeat the next year than passes of other lengths?

From 1990 to 2011, 188 different quarterbacks started at least 14 games and thrown 300+ passes in one year, and then attempted at least 300 passes for the same team the next season. After analyzing the lengths of each touchdown pass for those quarterbacks, I discovered the following:

•For every one-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.70 touchdowns in Year N+1
•For every two-to-five-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.56 touchdowns in Year N+1
•For every six-to-ten-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.77 touchdowns in Year N+1
•For every 11-to-20-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.70 touchdowns in Year N+1
•For every 21-to-30-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.22 touchdowns in Year N+1
•For every 31-to-50-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.33 touchdowns in Year N+1
•For every 50+ yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.33 touchdowns in Year N+1
Click to expand...
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_starting_point_qb_proj
 
Gravity said:
Well at least there's someone who tries to attack the evidence and not the witness. :)

An 86 QB rating is average, and the Dolphins number of rushing TDs went from 15 to 8, from 2012 to 2013, which means that 7 of the 12 more TD passes Tannehill threw were essentially a substitution of passing for rushing TDs that were scored the year before, rather than anything done in addition to what he did in terms of TD passes in his rookie season.

Moreover, here's a bit on the repeatability of TD passes from year to year:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_starting_point_qb_proj
Click to expand...

You seriously believe that don't you? As if there's some sort of magic cap limit of total TD's a team can score in a given year? Based off your (lack of) logic, if the running game scores 0 TD's in 2014, that should equate to 32 TD's for Tannehill. All of which he won't have earned any credit for. At least from you. You're sure to make up some statistic or another ensuring that all the credit goes to... I don't know... J The Snake Martin perhaps? (I figure you're both members of the same virgin support group)
 
The Dolphins have been stuck at scoring right around 32 TD's per season for the last decade. That is why we have sucked for that long.
Until we get into the 40 per season consistently we don't have a chance of upending the patriots from the division title.

In 2008 when we won the division title we scored 40 TD's
 
Fins1971 said:
The Dolphins have been stuck at scoring right around 32 TD's per season for the last decade. That is why we have sucked for that long.
Until we get into the 40 per season consistently we don't have a chance of upending the patriots from the division title.
Click to expand...
And don't expect more total TDs to occur when your quarterback's YPA -- essentially the measure of driving down the field efficiently -- isn't at least 7.0.

And once again, YPA is unrelated to sacks, either game-to-game for the Dolphins in 2013, or for all NFL QBs who've thrown at least 500 passes in a season since 1994. Passing efficiency isn't where it needs to be to score more TDs, and it isn't because of the offensive line.
 
Gravity said:
Well at least there's someone who tries to attack the evidence and not the witness. :) An 86 QB rating is average, and the Dolphins number of rushing TDs went from 15 to 8, from 2012 to 2013, which means that 7 of the 12 more TD passes Tannehill threw were essentially a substitution of passing for rushing TDs that were scored the year before, rather than anything done in addition to what he did in terms of TD passes in his rookie season. Moreover, here's a bit on the repeatability of TD passes from year to year: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_starting_point_qb_proj
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's just stupid. What it means is that he did not have a run game to support him all year long. But I assume that's his fault too.

---------- Post added at 10:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:01 PM ----------
Gravity said:
I'm taking any and all high-dollar bets on that one. Who's first? ;)
Click to expand...
How would you define "same trajectory" then?
 
Gravity
Don't mean too much to me
I'm who I've got to be
These pigs are after me, after you
Run away, like it was yesterday
When we could run away, when we could run away
Run away from here

I'm shooting out of this room
Because I sure don't like the company
Stop your preaching right there
Cause I really don't care
And I'll do it again
 
Spiff said:
Yeah, that's just stupid. What it means is that he did not have a run game to support him all year long. But I assume that's his fault too.
Click to expand...
I don't think we can say whose fault it is with any certainty, but we do know that Tannehill's performance wasn't correlated with running game variables. He didn't play any better himself when the running game fared better, and he didn't play any worse when it fared worse.

How would you define "same trajectory" then?
Click to expand...
Well you found the one area of his game in which he improved along a decent trajectory (though it could be argued, again, that his increase in TD passes represented none other than TD runs from the year before that weren't scored again in 2013), though I strongly doubt you or anyone else is willing to put money on that trajectory's remaining as steep. In other words it's an "exception to the rule" that really isn't an exception.
 
sm0kinfins said:
You seriously believe that don't you? As if there's some sort of magic cap limit of total TD's a team can score in a given year? Based off your (lack of) logic, if the running game scores 0 TD's in 2014, that should equate to 32 TD's for Tannehill. All of which he won't have earned any credit for. At least from you. You're sure to make up some statistic or another ensuring that all the credit goes to... I don't know... J The Snake Martin perhaps? (I figure you're both members of the same virgin support group)
Click to expand...

Things tend to average out over the years. Year to year miami is going ot score about the same amount of TD's. If you had a larger separatoin of 10 years, you would probably see a great difference. Essentially what he is saying is if you are running less to score, someone else has to get those TD's, and it's going to be RT. We passed way more in the redzone. His TD's should have gone up based on quantity of chances, and having nothing to do with his "improved" skill. He is the first QB with over 500 attempts in a season since marino for Miami. He should have ATLEAST doubled his td production on quantity of attempts alone.
 
Wallace17Miami said:
Things tend to average out over the years. Year to year miami is going ot score about the same amount of TD's. If you had a larger separatoin of 10 years, you would probably see a great difference. Essentially what he is saying is if you are running less to score, someone else has to get those TD's, and it's going to be RT. We passed way more in the redzone. His TD's should have gone up based on quantity of chances, and having nothing to do with his "improved" skill. He is the first QB with over 500 attempts in a season since marino for Miami. He should have ATLEAST doubled his td production on quantity of attempts alone.
Click to expand...

He should have doubled his TD production based on attempts alone? That only works if everything else remained the same. He didn't face the same opponents. Protection was worse. Regardless if you think we had the ability or not, we didn't run the ball. Defenses are going to play differently when they know you are only passing the ball. Just because you threw for a certain amount of TDs in 1 year under a set of circumstances, doesn't mean you are going to double that amount with more attempts under a different set of circumstances.

Statistics are fine, but logic seems to get lost with some of you guys.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom