Targets at #18

[LargoFin]

Would you rather have the 2nd best WR at 18 or the 5th best OT?

In this class, I'd rather 2nd best WR. But, it depends on how you graded players. J Offerdahl has Reagor in the top of wide receivers. Under that grading I'd rather have 5th best graded OT.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

You're killing me J. 9 WRs??? Ouch.

I really like Kinlaw. I think he's a bit raw and needs to work on his pad level and technique/hands a little more but that guy is explosive and disruptive inside. He faced a ton of double teams playing in the A gap, which hurt his stats, but put him next to another good DT or out at DE in a 3-4 and watch him do his thing.

I like Blacklock for the same reasons above. My issue with Blacklock is he's strictly an upfield 3-teach and can't handle doubles well, while Kinlaw has shown he can at times.

I like Jordan Elliott. He's not the physical specimen that Kinlaw is, but he's way more refined and has good speed. Have them ranked similarly and prefer Elliott - 41-75 range for both. In general, I think this DT class is pretty weak, and Elliott is the only one I'd consider underrated. I also like the Davon Hamilton, but I think he's rated right.

On the flipside, the WR class is historically good. Lots of skilled, athletic players with robust profiles.

I don't see Kinlaw developing into a star DT, and I'd rather have a pretty good DT for cheap (not hard to find) than a solidly good DT for big money or an early pick. On top of that, Kinlaw needs significant refinement. So, it's hard for me to get excited about him, especially after Miami drafted Wilkins at 13 in 2019. Steelers just traded a 5th to Baltimore for Chris Wormley and a 7th. A good, young DT with great athleticism. He's still on his rookie contract, and I assume Miami could have had him for less - being outside of the AFC North.

It's hard for DT's to live up to premium investments. Not every class has an Ed Oliver.

 

[Lovethefish]

Agree with the line of thought and the conclusion, but if there was a 5th OT that belonged in Tier 1, I think it'd change the optics. Tiers help a lot, because you can say, "OK, there are 4 OT's I'd feel good about drafting Top 20 and 3 WR's. If only one is available, I'll draft him. If more than one is available, then we can have a discussion." This is why I wouldn't draft Jackson over Reagor at 18 - unless I knew Reagor would be there at 26, which is, of course, impossible to know.

This is the line of thinking we need to have and the key to building a team of great players.
Don’t reach. Prioritize talent and value over need.
If we agree there are only 4 Tackles worth of a top 18 Board, stick to the Board. Don’t reach for the Jones or Jackson or Niang.
One of whom will be available at 26.

Couple more opinions. This concept does become difficult when a need is so glaring that you become tempted to choose need over BPA. Also, as draft progresses, the tiers become larger and needs / picks can be more easily be defended.
Back to #18, it’s about team building, I’m still hopeful they can pull off following moves to alleviate need picks:
Trent Williams for 2021 Rd2
Shelby Harris DT FA- Rotational DT
Cam Wake FA- 3rd Down specialist.
Cut Albert Wilson

Now aside from QB- our needs are reduced and those 5 top 70 picks will round out the roster.

 

[Lovethefish]

Not a McKinney fan. He's fine, but I'm pretty sure someone would like him more than me, so I don't seriously consider him. 56 is probably the earliest I would take him, and there would likely be other players I like more. I'd prefer either Winfield Jr or Delpit, and 26 is the earliest I'd consider either.

I also don't see the wisdom in passing top receiving options in a stacked class for a Safety. WR is the much more valuable position, and the talent at the top is much better at WR. If a quality receiver falls, draft him, but that doesn't mean I'm passing on the better player at the more valuable position just because I might be able to get a good player at the same position later.

Combo of FS, RB, WR- set up nicely for 26,39,56.
There are 3-4 in each group total - should be fun.

 

[Lovethefish]

I like Jordan Elliott. He's not the physical specimen that Kinlaw is, but he's way more refined and has good speed. Have them ranked similarly and prefer Elliott - 41-75 range for both. In general, I think this DT class is pretty weak, and Elliott is the only one I'd consider underrated. I also like the Davon Hamilton, but I think he's rated right.

On the flipside, the WR class is historically good. Lots of skilled, athletic players with robust profiles.

I don't see Kinlaw developing into a star DT, and I'd rather have a pretty good DT for cheap (not hard to find) than a solidly good DT for big money or an early pick. On top of that, Kinlaw needs significant refinement. So, it's hard for me to get excited about him, especially after Miami drafted Wilkins at 13 in 2019. Steelers just traded a 5th to Baltimore for Chris Wormley and a 7th. A good, young DT with great athleticism. He's still on his rookie contract, and I assume Miami could have had him for less - being outside of the AFC North.

It's hard for DT's to live up to premium investments. Not every class has an Ed Oliver.

Agree given the system and player- Kinlaw would be on the periphery of #18 for me. But I would have to consider him at #26. Still I would prefer Ruggs Lamb Jeudy and Now Raegor given you analysis over Kinlaw at #26.
I also prefer Ruiz, Delpit, Winfield again at 26- there are right in the 18-26 range for me.

 

[Lovethefish]

In this class, I'd rather 2nd best WR. But, it depends on how you graded players. J Offerdahl has Reagor in the top of wide receivers. Under that grading I'd rather have 5th best graded OT.

100%. To me that = Jeudy and Lamb over Jones OT.
Also, we need to have more realistic review at our WR corps.
1. Parker- Did bulb finally flash and can he stay healthy.
2. Williams- Healthy?
3. Wilson- overpaid- cap casualty.

 

[PSU Cane]

I like Jordan Elliott. He's not the physical specimen that Kinlaw is, but he's way more refined and has good speed. Have them ranked similarly and prefer Elliott - 41-75 range for both. In general, I think this DT class is pretty weak, and Elliott is the only one I'd consider underrated. I also like the Davon Hamilton, but I think he's rated right.

On the flipside, the WR class is historically good. Lots of skilled, athletic players with robust profiles.

I don't see Kinlaw developing into a star DT, and I'd rather have a pretty good DT for cheap (not hard to find) than a solidly good DT for a big money or an early pick. On top of that, Kinlaw needs significant refinement. So, it's hard for me to get excited about him, especially after Miami drafted Wilkins at 13 in 2019. Steelers just traded a 5th to Baltimore for Chris Wormley and a 7th. A good, young DT with great athleticism. He's still on his rookie contract, and I assume Miami could have had him for less - being outside of the AFC North.

It's hard for DT's to live up to premium investments. Not every class has an Ed Oliver.

I am surprised how low many of the mocks have Elliott going. He's a good player and i would be open to picking him at a value spot.

What separates Kinlaw from a guy like Elliott, at least to me, is how disruptive Kinlaw is and how he commands double teams.....whereas Elliott gets a lot of singles and still isn't as disruptive on a play by play basis. Elliott makes plays, don't get me wrong....and he uses his hands well. I just don't see that same pop and challenge to the offensive backfield with Elliott, where offenses feel they must double him to be successful.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Agree given the system and player- Kinlaw would be on the periphery of #18 for me. But I would have to consider him at #26. Still I would prefer Ruggs Lamb Jeudy and Now Raegor given you analysis over Kinlaw at #26.
I also prefer Ruiz, Delpit, Winfield again at 26- there are right in the 18-26 range for me.

Ruiz is a legit option at 26. Really good player, young, good size and athleticism. He shouldn't have any issue anchoring. I'd prefer to get Cushenberry or Hennessy later, because I think both can be quality starters, but if Miamo went Tua, Thomas, Ruiz, I wouldn't be mad at all.

The way this particular draft breaks, if I didn't get Reagor at 18 or Jefferson at 26, I'd probably kick WR down to the 3rd Round. At 39, Mims and Ruggs will be gone, and the other guys I like a lot (Bryan Edwards and Tyler Johnson) should be there in the 3rd or 4th. I'd prefer to add one of Reagor, Jefferson, or Mims at 18 or 26, depending on what happens with the OT's, and then see if Edwards or Johnson make it to Day 3. Around that, there's still room to add OT's, a Safety, a C, and a RB.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Here are probably the picks before Miami. Not speculating on teams, just players.

Quarterbacks (4)
Burrow
Tua
Herbert
Love

Offensive Line (4)
Wills
Wirfs
Becton
Thomas

Wide Receivers (3)
Jeudy
Lamb
Ruggs III

Defensive Line (2)
Young
Brown

Linebacker (1)
Simmons (defense)

Corners (1)
Okudah

That's 15. Here are the maybes:

Henderson (CB) ,Kinslaw (DL), Reagor (Wr), Jefferson (Wr.), Chaisson (LB)

Surprise picks in the top 20????

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Here are probably the picks before Miami. Not speculating on teams, just players.

Quarterbacks (4)
Burrow
Tua
Herbert
Love

Offensive Line (4)
Wills
Wirfs
Becton
Thomas

Wide Receivers (3)
Jeudy
Lamb
Ruggs III

Defensive Line (2)
Young
Brown

Linebacker (1)
Simmons (defense)

Corners (1)
Okudah

That's 15. Here are the maybes:

Henderson (CB) ,Kinslaw (DL), Reagor (Wr), Jefferson (Wr.), Chaisson (LB)

Surprise picks in the top 20????

Maybe an OT like Jackson or Jones, and I wouldn't bet against Hurts going Top 20.

 

[Lovethefish]

I am surprised how low many of the mocks have Elliott going. He's a good player and i would be open to picking him at a value spot.

What separates Kinlaw from a guy like Elliott, at least to me, is how disruptive Kinlaw is and how he commands double teams.....whereas Elliott gets a lot of singles and still isn't as disruptive on a play by play basis. Elliott makes plays, don't get me wrong....and he uses his hands well. I just don't see that same pop and challenge to the offensive backfield with Elliott, where offenses feel they must double him to be successful.

Good post in comparing value here.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Ruiz is a legit option at 26. Really good player, young, good size and athleticism. He shouldn't have any issue anchoring. I'd prefer to get Cushenberry or Hennessy later, because I think both can be quality starters, but if Miamo went Tua, Thomas, Ruiz, I wouldn't be mad at all.

The way this particular draft breaks, if I didn't get Reagor at 18 or Jefferson at 26, I'd probably kick WR down to the 3rd Round. At 39, Mims and Ruggs will be gone, and the other guys I like a lot (Bryan Edwards and Tyler Johnson) should be there in the 3rd or 4th. I'd prefer to add one of Reagor, Jefferson, or Mims at 18 or 26, depending on what happens with the OT's, and then see if Edwards or Johnson make it to Day 3. Around that, there's still room to add OT's, a Safety, a C, and a RB.

Maybe an OT like Jackson or Jones, and I wouldn't bet against Hurts going Top 20.

What's your view on Hurts? Personally, I think he's pretty close to Love. Obviously not the arm talent, but he has some nice skills to work with.

I could see Jackson and Jones going faster than expected, simply on the law of supply and demand. That OT position might be harder for Miami to fill than expected. A trade up is an option, but then you've got to factor in how much better a Thomas is than Jackson, plus an additional pick. Might take that #39 in addition to #18.

 

[spiketex]

Miami's #18 pick will probably be an O-lineman. Yes, there will be great WRs available and on a BPA approach they probably stand out, but there are so many really good WRs in this draft, I think that this Dolphin pick will be more driven by need and after selecting the QB to develop for the future, our needs are O-tackle and RB.

 

[Lovethefish]

Maybe an OT like Jackson or Jones, and I wouldn't bet against Hurts going Top 20.

Good original post SF-
I would add Chaisson as likely Top 20 given his athleticism and freakish bend.
Ruiz as a possible top 20 given lack of depth in FA and Draft at center spot.

Agree Jones or Jackson given the position and their ideal body types. They both have tremendous upside.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

100%. To me that = Jeudy and Lamb over Jones OT.
Also, we need to have more realistic review at our WR corps.
1. Parker- Did bulb finally flash and can he stay healthy.
2. Williams- Healthy?
3. Wilson- overpaid- cap casualty.

Well said. Yes, Miami's receivers are a relative strength, but Parker has been injury prone throughout his career. Don't get me wrong, I love what he did this year. It's what most of us expected when he was drafted in the 1st round. Williams was great as a rookie. But, he also got injured and has to work on his hands. Wilson and Grant both have big-play ability, but are also both injury prone. Ford has promise. If they are all healthy, I think that's a nice group.

Lamb to me is a more physical DaVante Paker. Jeudy is a great route runner. Some media in the Bay Area are comparing him to Jerry Rice. I think that's who the 49ers are targeting with the trade to get to #13, especially now that they lost Emmanuel Sanders.