The Coming Great QB Competition, Draft and Free Agency Haul of 2020

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Herbert tends to always come up small in the biggest moments like Tannehill did in college.

For as much as people like to talk about Tua and exaggerate an injury history - he’s never missed a game. Herbert has missed 5 games due to injury and gets dinged in games constantly. Go watch the Auburn game again.

Here’s a few Herbert facts: He’s only faced a “top 30” defense 8 times in his career.

His record is 4-4 in those games.

Averages in those games are: 64% completion percentage - 223 yards/game - 7.1 YPA - 14 TD’s to 4 INT’s - and a 139 QB Efficiency Rating.

And by “top 30” defenses, we’re not talking about facing Clemson or Georgia or LSU or Miss. St. or Alabama - we’re talking about MWC teams like Wyoming and Boise St. in addition to few “top 30” defenses sprinkled throughout the PAC-12 like Washington, Utah, and Washington St.


He’s only faced a top 10 defense once - Michigan St. in the Redbox Bowl.

Oregon scored 7 points in the game and were shutout for over 3 quarters. But won the game 7-6.

 

[Vaark]

Bigger than NSYNC!

 

[tay0365]

Herbert is actually playing very well... and is superior physically to Tua...it is far from a given Tua is the pick...especially if he get more injuries.

Well, let everyone play their hearts out and prove they deserve to be the starting QB (...And that includes starting this week, Rosen) of a soon to be richly talented Dolphins rising team.

 

[13marino13]

We've seen how dreadful Fitzpatrick is in 2 games but he's still starting over Rosen. Go back to his time at UCLA. Its not overly impressive in my opinion. I think Arizona reached on him at 10 out of desperation and the rookie wage scale.

I think there is more to it than meets the eye with Fitz starting. Rosen clearly outplayed him in the preseason and it wasn't even close. If we can see it as fans, you can sure as hell bet the coaches knew it. The problem is we don't truly know what they're thinking, there's a reason Fitz was starting and it isn't because they viewed him as the better QB.
As far as college goes, I'll agree, it wasn't a stellar college career, decent, not great but some of that has to fall on the surrounding cast he had and the coaching. There have been many "can't miss" QB prospects that never lived up to the hype coming out of college, the benches are full of them. Every year has its top QB prospects and every year a majority of them fizzle out in the pros.

In the past 12 years (up until 2018 & 2019 draft class's, the jury is still out on these players), there have been 31 QB's taken in the first round.
I would classify 7 of them as studs; Mahomes, Watson, Goff, Wentz, Luck, Newton, Ryan
3 of them above average; Stafford, Flaco, Cutler
7 of them average
14 complete busts
So, if you draft a QB in the first round, you have an approx 23% chance of hitting a stud.
You have an approx 9% chance of getting an above-average one
you have an approx 23% chance of getting an average one
and you have an approx 45% chance of drafting a bust
No matter the player, there are no givens when it comes to drafting a QB in the first round, no matter how well they played in college, the game is so much different and the competition much greater in the NFL. It really is a crapshoot and likely no matter who the flavor of the year is, chances are greater than not he'll be no better than average. I remember many of these names, as I am sure you do, being touted as the next big thing the year they were coming out.
Just something to chew on.

2017​	1​	1​	2​	2​	Mitchell Trubisky​	Bears​	North Carolina​
	2​	1​	10​	10​	Patrick Mahomes​	Chiefs​	Texas Tech​
	3​	1​	12​	12​	Deshaun Watson​	Texans​	Clemson​

2016​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Jared Goff​	Rams​	California​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Carson Wentz​	Eagles​	North Dakota State​
	3​	1​	26​	26​	Paxton Lynch​	Broncos​	Memphis​

2015​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Jameis Winston​	Buccaneers​	Florida State​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Marcus Mariota​	Titans​	Oregon​

2014​	1​	1​	3​	3​	Blake Bortles​	Jaguars​	Central Florida​
	2​	1​	22​	22​	Johnny Manziel​	Browns​	Texas A&M​
	3​	1​	32​	32​	Teddy Bridgewater​	Vikings​	Louisville​

2013​

1​

1​

16​

16​

EJ Manuel​

Bills​

Florida State​

2012​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Andrew Luck​	Colts​	Stanford​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Robert Griffin III​	Redskins​	Baylor​
	3​	1​	8​	8​	Ryan Tannehill​	Dolphins​	Texas A&M​

2011​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Cam Newton​	Panthers​	Auburn​
	2​	1​	8​	8​	Jake Locker​	Titans​	Washington​
	3​	1​	10​	10​	Blaine Gabbert​	Jaguars​	Missouri​
	4​	1​	12​	12​	Christian Ponder​	Vikings​	Florida State​

2010​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Sam Bradford​	Rams​	Oklahoma​
	2​	1​	25​	25​	Tim Tebow​	Broncos​	Florida​

2009​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Matthew Stafford​	Lions​	Georgia​
	2​	1​	5​	5​	Mark Sanchez​	Jets​	USC​
	3​	1​	17​	17​	Josh Freeman​	Buccaneers​	Kansas State​

2008​	1​	1​	3​	3​	Matt Ryan​	Falcons​	Boston College​
	2​	1​	18​	18​	Joe Flacco​	Ravens​	Delaware​

2007​	1​	1​	1​	1​	JaMarcus Russell​	Raiders​	Louisiana State​
	2​	1​	22​	22​	Brady Quinn​	Browns​	Notre Dame​

2006​	1​	1​	3​	3​	Vince Young​	Titans​	Texas​
	2​	1​	10​	10​	Matt Leinart​	Cardinals​	USC​
	3​	1​	11​	11​	Jay Cutler​	Broncos​	Vanderbilt​

 

[13marino13]

Or we go with Rosen next year, build around him and if he's the Chosen, great! And if not, there's the best QB to come out of the draft since Luck waiting for us in 2021

Great minds think alike... :up:

 

[13marino13]

I can't speak for others, but I see more than one possibility.

No inexperienced QB is likely to come in here and have complete command of this complex offense, including Rosen or Tua. No inexperienced QB will come in with the pre/post snap read ability required. That means sitting and watching, irrespective of the name on the jersey.

Odds are Rosen doesn't make that leap, but that doesn't make it out of the question, or conspiracy theory.

Most posters that are in Rosens "corner" aren't there out of love for the individual, but because a sucessful Josh Rosen fast tracks our rebuild process.

BINGO!

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I think there is more to it than meets the eye with Fitz starting. Rosen clearly outplayed him in the preseason and it wasn't even close. If we can see it as fans, you can sure as hell bet the coaches knew it. The problem is we don't truly know what they're thinking, there's a reason Fitz was starting and it isn't because they viewed him as the better QB.
As far as college goes, I'll agree, it wasn't a stellar college career, decent, not great but some of that has to fall on the surrounding cast he had and the coaching. There have been many "can't miss" QB prospects that never lived up to the hype coming out of college, the benches are full of them. Every year has its top QB prospects and every year a majority of them fizzle out in the pros.

In the past 12 years (up until 2018 & 2019 draft class's, the jury is still out on these players), there have been 31 QB's taken in the first round.
I would classify 7 of them as studs; Mahomes, Watson, Goff, Wentz, Luck, Newton, Ryan
3 of them above average; Stafford, Flaco, Cutler
7 of them average
14 complete busts
So, if you draft a QB in the first round, you have an approx 23% chance of hitting a stud.
You have an approx 9% chance of getting an above-average one
you have an approx 23% chance of getting an average one
and you have an approx 45% chance of drafting a bust
No matter the player, there are no givens when it comes to drafting a QB in the first round, no matter how well they played in college, the game is so much different and the competition much greater in the NFL. It really is a crapshoot and likely no matter who the flavor of the year is, chances are greater than not he'll be no better than average. I remember many of these names, as I am sure you do, being touted as the next big thing the year they were coming out.
Just something to chew on.

​

2017​	1​	1​	2​	2​	Mitchell Trubisky​	Bears​	North Carolina​
	2​	1​	10​	10​	Patrick Mahomes​	Chiefs​	Texas Tech​
	3​	1​	12​	12​	Deshaun Watson​	Texans​	Clemson​

​

2016​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Jared Goff​	Rams​	California​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Carson Wentz​	Eagles​	North Dakota State​
	3​	1​	26​	26​	Paxton Lynch​	Broncos​	Memphis​

​

2015​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Jameis Winston​	Buccaneers​	Florida State​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Marcus Mariota​	Titans​	Oregon​

​

2014​	1​	1​	3​	3​	Blake Bortles​	Jaguars​	Central Florida​
	2​	1​	22​	22​	Johnny Manziel​	Browns​	Texas A&M​
	3​	1​	32​	32​	Teddy Bridgewater​	Vikings​	Louisville​

​

2013​

1​

1​

16​

16​

EJ Manuel​

Bills​

Florida State​

​

2012​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Andrew Luck​	Colts​	Stanford​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Robert Griffin III​	Redskins​	Baylor​
	3​	1​	8​	8​	Ryan Tannehill​	Dolphins​	Texas A&M​

​

2011​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Cam Newton​	Panthers​	Auburn​
	2​	1​	8​	8​	Jake Locker​	Titans​	Washington​
	3​	1​	10​	10​	Blaine Gabbert​	Jaguars​	Missouri​
	4​	1​	12​	12​	Christian Ponder​	Vikings​	Florida State​

​

2010​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Sam Bradford​	Rams​	Oklahoma​
	2​	1​	25​	25​	Tim Tebow​	Broncos​	Florida​

​

2009​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Matthew Stafford​	Lions​	Georgia​
	2​	1​	5​	5​	Mark Sanchez​	Jets​	USC​
	3​	1​	17​	17​	Josh Freeman​	Buccaneers​	Kansas State​

​

2008​	1​	1​	3​	3​	Matt Ryan​	Falcons​	Boston College​
	2​	1​	18​	18​	Joe Flacco​	Ravens​	Delaware​

​

2007​	1​	1​	1​	1​	JaMarcus Russell​	Raiders​	Louisiana State​
	2​	1​	22​	22​	Brady Quinn​	Browns​	Notre Dame​

​

2006​	1​	1​	3​	3​	Vince Young​	Titans​	Texas​
	2​	1​	10​	10​	Matt Leinart​	Cardinals​	USC​
	3​	1​	11​	11​	Jay Cutler​	Broncos​	Vanderbilt​

The risk is known and legitimate. But you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. The math will show that as well.

You can’t be afraid to fail. You can’t be afraid to take risks. Every draft pick is a risk. Every FA signing is a risk - even for guys that have already proven they can be great players in the NFL.

All of these teams competing for super bowls and playoff spots have all busted on highly drafted QB’s. Most of em many times in the same time frame Miami has avoided taking the risk. They’re better off than Miami.

Nothing is guarantee other than you won’t find one if you’re not trying. If busting on a QB sets your franchise back a decade - it’s because you have a bad front office.

 

[EJay]

For as much as people like to talk about Tua and exaggerate an injury history - he’s never missed a game. Herbert has missed 5 games due to injury and gets dinged in games constantly. Go watch the Auburn game again.

I’m sick of hearing/reading the bogus “injury prone” excuse being used against Tua.

To the last person I saw cite that lie on this site, I replied by asking how many games he’s missed. Nothing but the sound of crickets has followed.

Yes, I know he has been banged up at times and even played though an ankle injury which did limit his performance. But he played through those injuries. Which is exactly what I want to see from a player like him. It’s up to the coaches to decide whether it’s hurting the team or not.

Regardless, if he’s not missing games because of an injury, he’s not injury prone. It’s rare that any player plays football completely injury free. Some just can’t fight through it as well as others.

BTW, I’ve never wanted any part of Herbert. I just don’t see the appeal. I’d much rather have Tua, Jordan Love or a QB from the 2021 class.

 

[phins_4_ever]

The risk is known and legitimate. But you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. The math will show that as well.

You can’t be afraid to fail. You can’t be afraid to take risks. Every draft pick is a risk. Every FA signing is a risk - even for guys that have already proven they can be great players in the NFL.

All of these teams competing for super bowls and playoff spots have all busted on highly drafted QB’s. Most of em many times in the same time frame Miami has avoided taking the risk. They’re better off than Miami.

Nothing is guarantee other than you won’t find one if you’re not trying. If busting on a QB sets your franchise back a decade - it’s because you have a bad front office.

Let me highliht two quotes from your post:

But you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. The math will show that as well.

And right now they are taking a shot at Rosen.

Nothing is guarantee other than you won’t find one if you’re not trying.

And right now this FO is giving it the first try.

But I guess to apply your quotes one has to subscribe to "Boner for Tua".

The problem I have is not that people like Tua. The problem I have is that people actively rooting against the Dolphins for a name.
For me as a Dolphins fan there would be no greater and better scenario than Rosen working out to be a franchise QB - for a 2nd (and a 5th round) pick. That would double our draft capital in 2020 and we could complete a complete turnaround in one year.
But I am not a player's fan. I am a Miami Dolphins fan. If Rosen does not work out I am feeling pretty good that with the draft capital we have we can select a new QB in the next draft.

As critical as I was of Tannehill I wanted for him to do well. Not once did I ever root against him or the Dolphins because I have the same desire like everybody else - find a new franchise QB.

Your two quotes I singled out describes you and the rest of the "boner for Tua" gang - engaging in a dishonest debate. You are only applying these two quotes (which are absolutely correct) to the name Tua.

 

[BlueFin]

Well, let everyone play their hearts out and prove they deserve to be the starting QB (...And that includes starting this week, Rosen) of a soon to be richly talented Dolphins rising team.

Yeah...raw deal for Rosen though that hes had bad O-lines his entire college and pro career so far....hopefully he survives and get a fair shot with the rebuilt line next year.

 

[phintim]

Lets not get the cart in front of the horse here guys. Great to get excited about those picks but more importantly this year its all about evaluating if Flores and Grier are the right dudes.

 

[tay0365]

Yeah...raw deal for Rosen though that hes had bad O-lines his entire college and pro career so far....hopefully he survives and get a fair shot with the rebuilt line next year.

Agreed, and unfortunately for him, he has to Mirculously in the next 14 games (if he survives) try to make Miami look somewhat competive, or the plan to hit the QB market next year early will happen.

I know something might be wrong with me, but I am actually finding this to be somewhat exciting.

 

[Rowdy1972]

Let me highliht two quotes from your post:

And right now they are taking a shot at Rosen.


And right now this FO is giving it the first try.

But I guess to apply your quotes one has to subscribe to "Boner for Tua".

The problem I have is not that people like Tua. The problem I have is that people actively rooting against the Dolphins for a name.
For me as a Dolphins fan there would be no greater and better scenario than Rosen working out to be a franchise QB - for a 2nd (and a 5th round) pick. That would double our draft capital in 2020 and we could complete a complete turnaround in one year.
But I am not a player's fan. I am a Miami Dolphins fan. If Rosen does not work out I am feeling pretty good that with the draft capital we have we can select a new QB in the next draft.

As critical as I was of Tannehill I wanted for him to do well. Not once did I ever root against him or the Dolphins because I have the same desire like everybody else - find a new franchise QB.

Your two quotes I singled out describes you and the rest of the "boner for Tua" gang - engaging in a dishonest debate. You are only applying these two quotes (which are absolutely correct) to the name Tua.

We arent taking a shot on Rosen. We are feeding him to the wolves. Again you dont do that to a franchise QB. You dont take his best WR and his best Olineman away from him a week before the season. You don't take a DL in the first round when your oline and skilled players are in bad shape like ours. They havent built around him at all. Hell they have torn everything down around him. They have set him up top fail. The only reason he is starting his because of these investigation rumors.

 

[bradmcnutt13]

Its really fun this year being so invested in so many games each week. I'm actively rooting for the team playing Pittsburgh, the team playing Houston and all the teams that are in contention for the #1 which is a lot of teams at this point.

 

[BlueFin]

Lets not get the cart in front of the horse here guys. Great to get excited about those picks but more importantly this year its all about evaluating if Flores and Grier are the right dudes.

Nice thought... but can you really evaluate them until they choose the players they want and coach them?

Not really... no more than Josh Rosen can be evaluated fully with pathetic offensive lines both of his seasons.