The Myth of the First Round QB | Page 6 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The Myth of the First Round QB

Gonzo said:
It would be one hell of a start. You START with the QB, then build the team around him. The solution BEGINS there. I have over a decade of evidence that shows that you don't compete NEARLY as often doing the opposite. What do you have? The rare exception?

Yes, if Dan were here, we would be competitive DESPITE the morons on the sidelines. You clearly undervalue the most important position in football. BY FAR the most important.

And most realists know exactly how good "check down" (funny that you say that right after stating that you don't know how good he could be) Chad Henne is. Career backup/journeyman starter. Mark it down.

Regarding all the 1st round "busts," would you mind posting all the other round busts right next to it? That's the only way it can be effective. Better include UDFA's as well.

Hell, by that mindset, why don't we trade out of the first every year? Stock up on mediocrity with the very rare lucky break. Wait, we already do that by simply drafting second round positions in the first round. If we were truly savvy, we'd trade away all our picks and just grab UDFA's! Kurt Warner was a UDFA, so it has to work!

We've done it your way (/Sparano's way/Cameron's way/Saban's way/Wanny's way/JJ's way) for the past decade. It fails. It's the recipe for mediocrity (or worse) with the occasional *** beating in the first round of the playoffs. How about we go with what actually works, by drafting the most important position in the game in the round with the most talent?
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Nah man. We dont have 5 first round picks on the OL yet.
 
Gonzo said:
It would be one hell of a start. You START with the QB, then build the team around him. The solution BEGINS there. I have over a decade of evidence that shows that you don't compete NEARLY as often doing the opposite. What do you have? The rare exception?

Yes, if Dan were here, we would be competitive DESPITE the morons on the sidelines. You clearly undervalue the most important position in football. BY FAR the most important.

And most realists know exactly how good "check down" (funny that you say that right after stating that you don't know how good he could be) Chad Henne is. Career backup/journeyman starter. Mark it down.

Regarding all the 1st round "busts," would you mind posting all the other round busts right next to it? That's the only way it can be effective. Better include UDFA's as well.

Hell, by that mindset, why don't we trade out of the first every year? Stock up on mediocrity with the very rare lucky break. Wait, we already do that by simply drafting second round positions in the first round. If we were truly savvy, we'd trade away all our picks and just grab UDFA's! Kurt Warner was a UDFA, so it has to work!

We've done it your way (/Sparano's way/Cameron's way/Saban's way/Wanny's way/JJ's way) for the past decade. It fails. It's the recipe for mediocrity (or worse) with the occasional *** beating in the first round of the playoffs. How about we go with what actually works, by drafting the most important position in the game in the round with the most talent?
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The park ain't gonna hold that one.
 
CedarPhin said:
The park ain't gonna hold that one.
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Unfortunately, some will stick to their guns out of ignorance or stubbornness despite being proven dead wrong every year for over a decade now.
 
Mathematically having 48+% of QBs that have won a playoff game is a very high percentage. If you measuring 32 draft picks per year against 230+ draft picks per year then of course the higher number should come from the 230+ but when almost half are among the 32 you would think picking a 1st round QB gives you a higher percentage of success.

For example in the last 10 years, where you wrote your data from (well written by the way), there have been 28 QBs selected in the first round, 18 of them have won a playoff game...that's 64.3% success rate. In contrast there have been 111 QBs selected in all other rounds...14 of which have been to the playoffs and won...that's a success rate of 12.6%.

If I try out 100 players I have a much better chance of finding someone that can play over trying out just 28 players.
 
Funny you ignored the rest of my post, Gonzo, and only responded to the Marino sentence... let's try it this way:

How many more points would we score when Andrew Luck hits Marshall in the hands with a TD pass and Marshall drops it, compared to when Henne hits him in the hands and he drops it?

How much better off would we be when Columbo gets beat and gives up a sack of Andrew Luck, compared to Columbo giving up a sack of Henne?

How much more QB pressure would our D-line generate if we had Andrew Luck instead of Henne?

How much less would our DB's get beat if we had Andrew Luck rather than Henne?

Look, I agree that we should draft a QB high next year. But its gonna take a lot more than that to fix the holes on this team. Tanking an entire season to improve our draft slot is ridiculous. You don't know how the draft is gonna shake out. You don't know if Luck is gonna succeed in the NFL. You don't know if the next Aaron Rodgers will slide to #24 again.

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Besides Brady and Brees which non-first round QBs would you trade your first round pick for? I can't think of any. I guess Romo might be worth a first but thats debatable.
 
roy_miami said:
Besides Brady and Brees which non-first round QBs would you trade your first round pick for? I can't think of any. I guess Romo might be worth a first but thats debatable.
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And Brees was the 32nd player taken in the draft that year...essentially a first round pick.
 
I think everyone is arguing basically about the same thing. You draft QBs you believe that with proper coaching and players around them will become successful. A good QB can be found in any round, but more often than not teams find them in the first round. While a good QB can do a lot for a team, the team as a whole needs to preform at high levels to win.
 
roy_miami said:
Besides Brady and Brees which non-first round QBs would you trade your first round pick for? I can't think of any. I guess Romo might be worth a first but thats debatable.
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Schaub
Maybe Kolb but its early
Maybe even Fitzpatrick but well see

I do want to use a 1st round pick on a QB. But you don't have to "suck for luck" and have the 1st overall pick to get a good QB:

Schaub - 3rd round
Rodgers - 24th overall
Cutler - 11th overall
Bree's - 32nd overall
Brady - 6th round
Flacco - 18th overall
Big Ben - 11th overall
Hasselbeck - 6th round
Freeman - 17th overall
Kolb - 2nd round, 36th overall
Fitz - 7th round
Orton - 4th round
Romo - undrafted right?
Marino - 25th overall I believe?

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tfh_rules said:
Funny you ignored the rest of my post, Gonzo, and only responded to the Marino sentence... let's try it this way:

How many more points would we score when Andrew Luck hits Marshall in the hands with a TD pass and Marshall drops it, compared to when Henne hits him in the hands and he drops it?

How much better off would we be when Columbo gets beat and gives up a sack of Andrew Luck, compared to Columbo giving up a sack of Henne?

How much more QB pressure would our D-line generate if we had Andrew Luck instead of Henne?

How much less would our DB's get beat if we had Andrew Luck rather than Henne?

Look, I agree that we should draft a QB high next year. But its gonna take a lot more than that to fix the holes on this team. Tanking an entire season to improve our draft slot is ridiculous. You don't know how the draft is gonna shake out. You don't know if Luck is gonna succeed in the NFL. You don't know if the next Aaron Rodgers will slide to #24 again.

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No, I didn't ignore it, it simply didn't matter. Nobody is dumb enough to think that drafting even a player of Luck's caliber will make us SB contenders next year, but it will make us a HELL of a lot closer. No other position matters until that is settled. So who gives a **** who is blocking and who is rushing the passer on the other side? It simply doesn't matter until we have a franchise QB.

The funny thing is, we don't even need to tank the season. This team blows, especially the management and coaching. Luckily they'll be gone and the new staff will have the opportunity of drafting one of the top three QB's coming out. If they pass on any of them, they should be fired, and I'll be here stating exactly that. And I'll be right. The rest will come around in a couple of years. No other position matters more. None come even remotely close, I don't care how bad our lines are or how bad our receiving corps are. None.come.close.

And yes, I do know Luck is going to succeed.
 
Luck = Long term success

Mediocre QBs = short and long term failure.

You chose.

It's really this simple. Many of you use your own life experience where yout ake NO chances to apply it ot your football team.W

We have taken no chances hte past decade and we have gotten MEDIOCRE BORING football.

It's time to take a chance.

I can't believe people are scared of taking a QB in the first round.

We have taken QBs not in the first round and have sucked.

What more evidence do you need?
 
Gonzo said:
No, I didn't ignore it, it simply didn't matter. Nobody is dumb enough to think that drafting even a player of Luck's caliber will make us SB contenders next year, but it will make us a HELL of a lot closer. No other position matters until that is settled. So who gives a **** who is blocking and who is rushing the passer on the other side? It simply doesn't matter until we have a franchise QB.

The funny thing is, we don't even need to tank the season. This team blows, especially the management and coaching. Luckily they'll be gone and the new staff will have the opportunity of drafting one of the top three QB's coming out. If they pass on any of them, they should be fired, and I'll be here stating exactly that. And I'll be right. The rest will come around in a couple of years. No other position matters more. None come even remotely close, I don't care how bad our lines are or how bad our receiving corps are. None.come.close.

And yes, I do know Luck is going to succeed.
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People like Mediocre football.

People think their football team should be like their boring, take no chances every day lives.

Every year we have this same argument and every year the team sucks.

This is a QB driven league (DUH).
 
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