Tony Pauline says Chase doesn’t get past Fins at 3. | Page 10 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Tony Pauline says Chase doesn’t get past Fins at 3.

juniorseau55 said:
I couldn't agree more with you about the size argument. As I was watching some games, and watching college film I couldn't help but to see how fast players in the NFL explode out of the line of scrimmage. This should be common sense for everyone here but once you put it into perspective you start seeing some trends at the end of the day. The first trend is that wide receivers who have monster college seasons.

Before Smith we know someone by the name of Corey Davis. Not even a 1,000 yard season yet, but he was a monster in college. The Titans picked him 5th, and while he hasn't been a bust, he quite simply never lived up to him being picked that high. In fact, all wide receivers picked in the first round in the 2017 draft never lived up to their hype, and were outperformed vastly by the receivers picked in the 2nd, and 3rd round. Godwin, Juju, and a few others were available in later rounds.

2015 Amari Cooper (last pro bowl receiver picked in the 1st round prior to Jefferson) Success 1st round, everyone else 1st round average.
2016: Average 1st round, and then you got your Michael Thomas 2nd round.
2018 Ridley, and Moore have been studs, They were both drafted after the first 20th picks.

2019 No one was a hit in the first round .

2020 Justin Jefferson stud picked after the 20th picks, and first pro bowl receiver in the first round since... AMARI COOPER IN 2015.


Spending the number 3 overall even on chase as much as I like him is statistically a bad investment for any team, and on Smith it would be even worse. College success doesn't translate to NFL success the way you
see it unfold while watching college games. There is a reason why teams pass on these guys in favor for others.
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All great points @juniorseau55 !

It's interesting to compare today's NFL to the far harder NFL in the Dan Marino days. Back then when the defense was head-hunting and the rules didn't protect the QB's, they similarly didn't protect WR's so DB's absolutely mugged WR's on every play. The only way to gain any separation back then was to be an ultra-quick player like Jakeem Grant, Tyreek Hill or Albert Wilson, so receivers getting separation was hard to come by, and it was an era of smurfs (both figuratively and literally as that was the nickname for Washington's entire receiving corps). Today DB's can only get their hands on WR's in the initial bump yardage, and even today that's the single most important aspect for a WR to get open. But, those bigger guys can push through that and get to the ridiculously easy receiving area after that bump yardage and separate with ease, even if they're not ultra-quick. So, today is the era of the big WR's, because the rules have literally tied the hands of the DB's in today's NFL.

It's good for the game. QB's are 100x safer and have been able to extend their careers to unbelievable levels because they almost never get severely injured. The easy peasy pro-WR rules have increased pass completion percentages, increased YPA, increased points, and increased the overall offense. It's similar to how the 3-point play has revolutionized the NBA game ... it simply flooded easy points into the game and altered the way teams go about trying to get points. But still ... sometimes I find myself lamenting the more meaningful but more difficult old day scoring offenses with run games that did more than keep DL honest. I sometimes miss the big dominant NBA centers and slashing forwards making spectacularly athletic plays. Sure, the 3 pointer is better, and if you leave a guy open on the perimeter, you'll be punished, but some of the fun stuff is a bit lacking with these decisions. And people who only grew up in a 3 point dominant league, may not even realize what they're missing. Ditto for the era of the smurf WR.
 
Kebo said:
If there is a sure thing at QB I go QB. You can always recoup picks for Tua. I would not gamble on Wilson or Lance. I would gamble on Fields or Lawrence. If Fields and Lawrence are gone I’m taking Sewell.
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I wouldn't take Fields. He looked good against Clemson because Sermon was ripping them apart. He's a mediocre QB with a talent advantage most games that can also run.

I would consider Lance at 18 and I would trade up and include Tua in a deal for Lawrence.
 
dol-phan007 said:
If we trade to 6 or 8 I want at least a 2nd this year and a 1st next year. I dont care about the comp chart. If a team wants to move up to 3, they need to give us more than the value. I'm not trading back for and even point swap.
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I applaud your enthusiasm and conviction! All I'm saying is that to trade back we need a trade partner. There are precious few teams between #4 and #8 who might be willing to trade up to #3. IMHO, if we trade down past #8 we definitely miss out on Chase and possibly on Smith as well, so if our goal is to build around Tua, anything lower than #8 and we're looking at a RT like Rashawn Slater or Christian Darrisaw.

There's a possibility that a Kyle Pitts is there, depending upon the pick and how it all plays out, but it will take a good OC to maximize Pitts in a team that already has Gesicki and Shaheen, because starting 3 big slot WR/move TE types isn't going to be productive without at least one deep threat outside and one threat of some kind on the other side. Neither outside role really fits Gesicki, Pitts or Shaheen. If you're doing Parker + 1 speed threat, and two slot guys (e.g. Gesicki and Pitts), you're very vulnerable to the blitz and stunts. Tua is going to have to master scrambling to even make that work, and it's not ideal.

So if we're limiting the trade range to 5 teams, we may need to simply make the pick at #3 or take whatever is the best offer to trade down. My insistance on gaining a 2nd rounder is that may be the best offer we get. If we're offered less than that, I'm comfortable selecting Chase at #3. That was my logic.
 
fishfanmiami said:
I don't know this stuff like you guys do but simple logic to me says you've invested a #5 pick so you do everything you can to make sure he succeeds

If after that he is a disappointment you move on in a year or two.
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I agree, but you're always looking for an upgrade at all positions. TL is a possible upgrade so i'd explore it.

Drafting Lance late 1st or another QB in the 2nd (Jones?) is more insurance than anything else. especially without a backup signed.
 
Dynastybuilder said:
I agree, but you're always looking for an upgrade at all positions. TL is a possible upgrade so i'd explore it.

Drafting Lance late 1st or another QB in the 2nd (Jones?) is more insurance than anything else. especially without a backup signed.
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I would prefer a vet back up but taking a flyer on a good QB later in the draft is not a bad idea
 
Pandarilla said:
Is there any other job that screams fake business than NFL Draft rumor guy?

I want to give him credit for coming up with the name Tony Pauline, if that's his fake name.

I plan on taking my fake business to the cricket league of India where I will be known as Rafi Gofukyurself...
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Rafi Masala...has a nicer ring to it
 
fishfanmiami said:
I would prefer a vet back up but taking a flyer on a good QB later in the draft is not a bad idea
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I don't mind spending another early pick on one as long as it's not too early. After all, it is the most critical position. There are no assurances Tua will be a stud.

I see it both ways but I'd want some kind of competition at camp and throughout the season. If the 5th overall pick can't handle it he shouldn't have been drafted there.
 
Dynastybuilder said:
I don't mind spending another early pick on one as long as it's not too early. After all, it is the most critical position. There are no assurances Tua will be a stud.

I see it both ways but I'd want some kind of competition at camp and throughout the season. If the 5th overall pick can't handle it he shouldn't have been drafted there.
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No proof he can not be the guy. He did ok coming off the surgery and goes 6 and 3 but we all expect more next year
 
fishfanmiami said:
No proof he can not be the guy. He did ok comes off the surgery like 6 and 3 but we all expect more next year
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Absolutely. I'm not down on Tua but I'm not as high on him as some others. If the value is there for another QB though i'm drafting one considering Tua
s injury history. I realize we have plenty of holes to fill but IMO 2nd QB is another one and I don't want one below the Dalton level.
 
Digital said:
I applaud your enthusiasm and conviction! All I'm saying is that to trade back we need a trade partner. There are precious few teams between #4 and #8 who might be willing to trade up to #3. IMHO, if we trade down past #8 we definitely miss out on Chase and possibly on Smith as well, so if our goal is to build around Tua, anything lower than #8 and we're looking at a RT like Rashawn Slater or Christian Darrisaw.

There's a possibility that a Kyle Pitts is there, depending upon the pick and how it all plays out, but it will take a good OC to maximize Pitts in a team that already has Gesicki and Shaheen, because starting 3 big slot WR/move TE types isn't going to be productive without at least one deep threat outside and one threat of some kind on the other side. Neither outside role really fits Gesicki, Pitts or Shaheen. If you're doing Parker + 1 speed threat, and two slot guys (e.g. Gesicki and Pitts), you're very vulnerable to the blitz and stunts. Tua is going to have to master scrambling to even make that work, and it's not ideal.

So if we're limiting the trade range to 5 teams, we may need to simply make the pick at #3 or take whatever is the best offer to trade down. My insistance on gaining a 2nd rounder is that may be the best offer we get. If we're offered less than that, I'm comfortable selecting Chase at #3. That was my logic.
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I see your point and even though it may not be ideal, you may be right. If we can only get a second to move back a couple spots and we can still get our guy, I think it's better than nothing.
 
ANUFan said:
I'd be shocked if forced the dolphins take a reciever @3. That seems so anti- this particular organization. Sewell screams the pick if a trade down isn't possible.
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And that’d be a foolish mistake.

DAL built one of the best lines of this millennium. Other than a rushing title for Zeke, what do they have to show for it? Defense has remained a problem, for sure, but their offense has been more explosive (when Dak was healthy) despite the line becoming questionable and far less what it once was.

You don’t need elite lineman. You just need 5 solid guys.

Elite is way more necessary with re: to playmakers on both sides of the ball.
 
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