While I agree with you that this team has not demonstrated they can win late in the season. I believe the main reason of it last year was that our key players on offense were exhausted and banged up. This year we should prioritize on getting more players involved and giving our core players some rest during regular season so they are healthy and close to full speed when it matters. I believe if we can do that this year our offense will be as good as anyone, even against top playoff defenses.
Two responses to that:
#1
If your perspective turns out to be correct, the most obvious path forward would seem to be the Dolphins treating 2024 as a "prove it" year, with success bolstering the idea of further developing this offense in its current form.
Be real about things. This offense has been loaded with skill position talent for the last 2 years. And it's fallen short against good opponents both years. In 2022, Tua ended his season with 4 straight losses against SF, LA, BUF and GB. In 2023, Miami ended their season with 3 straight losses to the AFCs most powerful teams: BAL, BUF and KC. To add salt to the wound, Miami had already lost to both BUF and KC earlier in the year, too.
We're dancing around saying the obvious, which is that people on the outside don't waste their time listening to these excuses. We absolutely suck in the biggest moments. We scored 14 against KC and then even less against them in the Playoffs. We were outscored by double-digits. We had 13 first downs and could not possess the ball. We could only muster 14 points against Buffalo with everything on the line a week before. We were blasted out of the stadium before that in Baltimore.
Be real. When it's clutch time, we stink and I've got news...it's more than a few OL injuries. It's structurally baked into the nature of this offense which (to be polite) is aimed at maximizing Tua's passer rating and turning his career around.
There is
nothing about the Dolphins offense that is worthy of mortgaging the future for until we know it's actually capable of ringing the bell against good teams in big games.
#2
The voices of outside analysts are important to hear. The smart ones tend to be optimistic but fair. They tend to be more balanced and often more realistic than fans because they don't swim in the nonsense of weekly nonsense. Those voices have consistently highlighted the most obvious difference between Miami and elite AFC teams: the capabilities of the QB. We do not have a Mahomes, Allen or Jackson who can all single-handedly beat a good defense if they play well.
Why Miami would mortgage it's future giving Tua a long-term extension before they've beaten
any good AFC teams in
any meaningful Dec-Jan games is nothing short of the Dolphins being the Dolphins. Only this franchise could convince itself of the glory that exists in losing.
So many want to recall the exploits of Marino and remind us that even he didn't win the big one and that winning isn't about the QB. So quickly those people seem to have forgotten what a
monster he was physically and what an incredible gift it is to have an elite player at the most critical position. The real lesson from Marino is that Miami would've never gotten above .500 in the late '80s or throughout the '90s without having such a massive advantage at QB. It's not a shame they never won a SB. It's a shame people don't realize how truly ugly and limited they would've been
without Marino.
We took Tua when there were a
TON of doubts about his physical limitations. We all agreed we were taking a risk but preferred that to the alternative. But again, we knew the risks going in and we knew there very well could be a real ceiling with the player. What's shocking is that talking about those same limitations today is hush-hush. It's funny what Tyreek Hill and some cheat motion can do for you, LOL.
In the first 2 years, we blamed ourselves. But over the last 2 years we've built an incredible offense around him starting with finding one of the most progressive HC's in the NFL. We've added a 1st ballot HoF WR alongside our #6 overall pick WR. We've got talent up and down the offense and a slew of OL pieces who were good enough to earn a chance at returning and playing against this year (and likely into the future).
There has always been an excuse. It was the bad team. It was Gailey. It was Flores. Then it was concussions robbing us of making a run. Then it was the OL and now it's WR depth. We will never run out of excuses which is precisely why having Tua play out 2024 would help finalize this conversation.
If the offense evolves, great. Question answered and we're happy to pay him. If the offense struggles yet again or Tua gets hurt for the 6th time in 7 years, we'll have our answer there as well.
Only the bad team would commit to the most important position long-term knowing there's real physical limitation in the present player before there's any actual Playoff success. I'd be fine with Tua being small if we were standing on the back of 2 nice Playoff runs. But we aren't. Two losses is not evidence of something good. With the investments we've made it's evidence of major structural limitations. Only a fool would dive in head first without first checking to see if there's actually water in the pool.
