IMHO, there are three things that make Tua poised to make a big leap in performance as a sophomore. If he can do these things--which are all very doable for him--then we can end this talk of replacing him:
1. Physically sound
Last year Tua faced the very real challenges of physically healing from a serious injury (hip) and the psychologically trusting the healed body part. Typically that second part is the harder challenge, and I believe in Tua's case that was true as well. He quickly overcame the first hurdle of taking the NFL hits and not getting re-injured or aggravating it. He instinctively used his hips to run. Where his challenge difficulty manifested was in fully torquing his body from his base (feet) through his hips to his arm. He was scarred and scared as most rehabbing kids are. So, he took it easy and babied it a little bit, which robbed him of some velocity on most of his throws. Tua never had a great arm, so he needs that full torquing on throws over the middle and all the intermediate depth throws ... and last year he simply didn't have it and he knew it, so he became a Checkdown Charlie like Alex Smith in order to avoid INT's. The result was he didn't produce enough offense, with only 11 TD's in 9 games, which isn't good enough. But, it is understandable, and when the defense wins games, a good game manager needs to not lose it. Tua won. He also made steps in the right direction. Now that his hip is solid and he knows it, I look for his velocity to return to NFL levels.
2. Knowledge
Let's face it, Tua isn't one of the smartest QB's, so comparing him to Fitzpatrick isn't fair. Fitz had one of the absolute highest Wonderlich's ever (highest?), and Tua had a very low Wonderlich. As we all know, that test is a bit wonky at best, and Dan Marino did poorly on it too, so WTH, it's not a clear indicator of success. Marino had the most elite vision I've ever seen in a QB, so he simply read the field in real time simulataneously seeing almost every offensive and defensive player downfield, and no other QB could do that. So, he SAW the open man, SAW the matchups, and anticipated the open man before he was open, thus didn't rely on his reads like other QB's needed to do. But Marino is a one-off, nobody else has has ever had that vision. Tua needs to be a progression QB like all mortal QB's, so it'll take a minute for him to learn and master the playbook as he internalizes the offense. With existing Coaches Godsey and Studs, they know what he does and how he learns and will tweak things to him as he learns. Charlie Frye was a great addition who also knows Tua and how to maximize him. In year 2 Tua will learn more and progress dramatically from his knowledge base as a rookie. The pandemic created chaos in the learning environment, shortened his time with coaches and the playbook, and he's starting from a much better place and much earlier this year. I'm expecting Tua to know more this year and be more comfortable with the playbook. I'm anticipating his game will go from thinking to instinctively reacting with the same high level of decision making he always displays.
3. Repetition
Let's face it, when you're rehabbing, you can't get in the reps you need. When you're the backup QB you can't get in the reps you need. When you're preseason consists of zero games and meetings on Zoom, you can't get in the reps you need. But Tua will be throwing with anybody willing to run routes for him this offseason, no more rehabbing. He'll get a full preseason and all the reps. And the WR's know he's the starter, so they'll be running routes with him before camp, after practice, and in the parking lot if they need to work it out. Muscle memory will be there for throws at every level. Tua will have the confidence to throw those intermediate passes and velocity to limit his INT exposure on those routes. He faced a lot of adversity as a rookie, and I'm confident that it made him stronger. We will see a better version of Tua in 2021.