This thread is fricking exhausting.
I wish the majority of the Anti-extension crowd would just say "I don't think Tua is good enough to get Miami to a Super Bowl" and be done with it. We get it...you don't like him. Stop trying to dress it up with "The front office probably thinks" or "I'm sure Ross feels," etc., and trying to pass it off as tangible evidence to support your Anti-Tua rhetoric. You have no idea what you're talking about.
Anyway, here are the following counter-arguments I've been able to sift out of here:
Point 1: "Let Tua play under his fifth-year contract and then franchise tag him."
Okay, sure. Aside from Tua playing (assuming he does) on a one-year deal in 2024, you're probably going to be paying him close to $50mm per year in 2025 anyway. And then, if he plays well, you're either paying him close to $70mm the following year or signing him to one of the craziest contracts in NFL history.
There's also this little point that hasn't been addressed with this whole counter-argument, and it's one that should scare the bejeezus out of everyone. If Tua stays healthy and plays well, and leads Miami to...say, the AFC Championship Game in 2024-25, which isn't some crazy pipe dream...everything will look rosy for 2025. Super Bowl aspirations. Everything's great, right? Wrong. Tua now really has Miami by the short hairs.
Miami can franchise tag Tua all they want. He doesn't have to sign it. He can tell Miami "Either sign me to the biggest contract in QB history, or I sit out 2025."
Point 2: "Let Tua play under his fifth-year contract and then sign him to an extension"
For the love of God...why? Unless you think Tua regresses severely or misses half the season, all you're doing is delaying everything a year. And if you don't think next year will be more expensive than this year, I don't know what to tell you.
Point 3: "Tua needs Miami more than Miami needs Tua"
No.
Just no. Miami without Tua is a 6 win team. Fewer butts in the seats. Fewer merchandising dollars. They're set up to compete with their current roster for the next two seasons.
Anyway, the way Miami is set up right now is to extend Tua. It just makes the most sense. A contract can be worked to tie Tua to Miami through the 2027 season. After that, if it doesn't work out, he's off the payroll.
If you want to make the argument that QBs make too much money, and there are alternative ways to come up with QB solutions, I'm all ears (and I believe that's what Pittsburgh is doing). But for right now and the immediate future, they're just not set up that way.
If you want my opinion (and it is just my opinion) on what might be holding up the contract, it's that sentence that Tua said last offseason, when he "thought about retiring." If I'm Miami's Front Office, I'm saying something to the effect of "If you have another injury and decide to retire after the 24-25 or 25-26 season, some of those signing bonuses that extend out through the 2028 season must be repaid to the club." I'm not sure how well that would work with the NFLPA, but it would be in the back of my mind.