Tua's Next. Be prepared.

[Finlawyer]

Lol, you inadvertently proved a point.

Tua cannot buy enough time to get to his 2nd or 3rd read? Since when is a QB supposed to "buy" enough time to get to his 2nd read?

If Tua has to "buy" time to get to his 2nd read, you sir just inadvertently proved the problem is the O line. Not Tua

Also, Tua was the #1 QB against the blitz last season. But hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good narrative. Am I right?

Tua beat the blitz by throwing to Tyreek on obvious blitzing downs and Reek gained the necessary yardage. Tua was a one-read guy last year until Reek got hurt. Then he had to throw downfield jto Waddle and Cedrick Wilson before third down. The Titans game (where Reek was hurt) exposed Tua and he never recovered.

 

[Yessir]

Baker Mayfield this offseason re-signed with Tampa on a 3 year deal with a max value of 115 million, with 50 million guaranteed. Had very similar production to Tua last year, and made the Pro Bowl. He also performed relatively well in the playoffs. They also have similar size, stature, and arm talent.

If I’m Chris Grier, I’m not sure why I’d pay triple the money in guarantees to Tua, and 15 million more in AAV . Like $180 million over 4 years, with $100 in guarantees should not be viewed as insulting to Tua whatsoever.

Just because Detroit gave Goff a stupid deal, doesn’t mean the Dolphins should do the same. Some team is is going to have to buck the “market is the market” trend. Let it be the Miami Dolphins. Not every QB deserves a 20+ percent of the cap type deal. Matter fact there’s only 3 who should be paid that. Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar. Those are only really the 3 guys who are real deal proven force multipliers. Every other QB is greatly a product of what’s surrounding them, and should be paid as such.

 

[GRYPHONK]

Tua beat the blitz by throwing to Tyreek on obvious blitzing downs and Reek gained the necessary yardage. Tua was a one-read guy last year until Reek got hurt. Then he had to throw downfield jto Waddle and Cedrick Wilson before third down. The Titans game (where Reek was hurt) exposed Tua and he never recovered.

But but but but.

Sorry, you're wrong.

 

[Atila]

They were for pass blocking. Won only 49% of snaps. Sure there’s a few other sources that measure oline efficiency however those are heavily impacted by sacks/pressures/hurries. In my opinion this is the most accurate as it’s only focusing on if the linemen won their rep. When you look at sources like pff that factor in sacks/hurries/pressures it’s not really accurate since it’s heavily boosted by Tua getting the ball out 0.25 to a half second faster then the majority of the league.

Two or more backups played weeks
4 (2 backups),
6(3)
7(3)
8(4)
9(2)
11(2)
12(2)
13(2)
14 (4)
15 (3)
16(3)
17(3)
18(2)
19(2)

Backups played most of the season however they appeared decent that is until Williams went down and Eich moved permanently to C and then they were really exposed despite being technically healthier the last two games then most of the season.


View attachment 172349

Whatever this is, these stats must not be very accurate or our coach must be horrible at play calling…

Because it says we are the 31st ranked pass blocking team but the 8th ranked run blocking team?

And we threw the ball at one of the highest clips in the league and the 2nd most on 3rd and short.

So which is it - this graphic is wrong or our coach was actually a little bit retarded.

Or both?

 

[Mach2]

Baker Mayfield this offseason re-signed with Tampa on a 3 year deal with a max value of 115 million, with 50 million guaranteed. Had very similar production to Tua last year, and made the Pro Bowl. He also performed relatively well in the playoffs. They also have similar size, stature, and arm talent.

If I’m Chris Grier, I’m not sure why I’d pay triple the money in guarantees to Tua, and 15 million more in AAV . Like $180 million over 4 years, with $100 in guarantees should not be viewed as insulting to Tua whatsoever.

Just because Detroit gave Goff a stupid deal, doesn’t mean the Dolphins should do the same. Some team is is going to have to buck the “market is the market” trend. Let it be the Miami Dolphins. Not every QB deserves a 20+ percent of the cap type deal. Matter fact there’s only 3 who should be paid that. Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar. Those are only really the 3 guys who are real deal proven force multipliers. Every other QB is greatly a product of what’s surrounding them, and should be paid as such.

Again, you and others are only seeing what you consider absurd numbers in the abstract.

There is no trend to buck.

Top QBs, in terms of cap percentage, have not changed substantially, which is how NFL number crunchers look at it. Teams valuations of specific positions have evolved but that is a matter of overall philosophy, rather than an indictment of QBs being overpaid.

The QB is, inarguably, the most important cog in the machine by far.

Other positions, such as WR are benefitting as well, while positions like RB or LB are not.

You say there are only a few QBs that deserve their pay.

Well, they aren't available at any viable price, so what are the other 28 teams supposed to do? Just resign themselves to not having any shot whatsoever, and fielding bad QBs?

How do you think fans of those teams would react?

 

[MARINO1384]

Whatever this is, these stats must not be very accurate or our coach must be horrible at play calling…

Because it says we are the 31st ranked pass blocking team but the 8th ranked run blocking team?

And we threw the ball at one of the highest clips in the league and the 2nd most on 3rd and short.

So which is it - this graphic is wrong or our coach was actually a little bit retarded.

Or both?

Graphic isn’t wrong, most backup linemen are solid run blockers but are not good enough to pass block especially guys like Jones who’s not really a scheme fit and more of a mauler.

It’s also important to note that we pass to set up the run and a lot of times we run in same sets we pass out of so we catch the defense off guard.

I see what you’re saying but they aren’t a team that’s going to line up in run sets 3 times in a row and run it down your throat. It’s finesse running designed off catching the defense off guard. Despite what the numbers say we couldn’t just be a run heavy team.

Would like to see a little more balance especially when it’s working. As for the 3rd and 4th and short yeah McDaniel gets too aggressive there sometimes.

Think Mostert was something like 7 for 8 on 3rd and short situation, not sure why McDaniel shys away from it.

Same with general offense. Love being aggressive but we need to play underneath too besides screens which I absolutely hate. We run almost nothing in the 4-9 yard range. Positive but short. Not everything has to be 20 yards downfield or behind the Los

 

[rent this space]

Just because Detroit gave Goff a stupid deal, doesn’t mean the Dolphins should do the same. Some team is is going to have to buck the “market is the market” trend. Let it be the Miami Dolphins. Not every QB deserves a 20+ percent of the cap type deal. Matter fact there’s only 3 who should be paid that. Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar. Those are only really the 3 guys who are real deal proven force multipliers. Every other QB is greatly a product of what’s surrounding them, and should be paid as such.

Matter of opinion, not fact. There are plenty of holes in Allen’s and Lamer’s games, they haven’t led their teams to anything besides underachievement. Being 2 and done in the playoffs isn’t much better than 1 and done. That being said, all 4 of these guys are franchise QBs and deserve to be paid.

 

[Sticky Gloves]

As long as Eich doesn’t play C they’ll be fine.

Both Eich and Robert Jones had good block win rates at guard. Personally I think Jones starts over Eich at RG, he was very good there.

Hard to grade Brewer, he’s a monster in the run game but who knows how he’ll be as a pass blocker. Williams was not elite prior to Miami however when he was asked to play to his strengths in Miami he became elite. Brewer will also be asked to play to his strengths. Judging Brewers pass blocking based on a titans system that wasn’t a fit for him and with qb’s who we personally witnessed like Tannehill who holds onto the ball way to long and has awful pocket presence, really isn’t a great way to judge Brewer.

As for Wynn, yeah hope he stays healthy. Eventually he needs to play a full season or two if he ever wants to get paid. This is a guy who if he stayed at LT for the pats would be making 10-15 million a year. He was very good at LT. I’m okay with Jones at Rg and Eich at Lg if Wynn goes down.

Again the key is C and not having Eich there. Every other combination that didn’t have him at C was solid. Also have Driscoll who had a season at rg a few seasons ago that was fantastic.

Brewer is pretty terrible in pass blocking. PFF graded Brewer 26th in pass protection. I think they got Brewer because he's short and it allows Tua to see the field better, and he's great in run blocking.

Pass blocking doesn't matter much in this offense because the ball gets out fast. If it did, you wouldn't get Brewer. This isn't a see the field and throw to a guy. You need the offensive line to hold up in that type of offense. That's not the offensive system the Dolphins have built.

 

[AquaBlissed888]

Running most of the offense to Tyreek does not work against physical teams. Tua cannot buy enough time to hit second or third reads. Josh Allen has a cannon and Tua has a noodle. Tua has great anticipation but does not fare well against an effective blitz. You can win a super bowl with Tua but you will not win one because of Tua. This being said, he is worth $40M per year on a 4-year deal. An injury prone QB has a lower shelf life and misses games.

Agreed and yes 40m on a 4 year deal would be ideal. Eh and 45 is as high as I'd go. Of course this is just where I value Tua. I don't see this realistically playing out.. I don't see him signing less than 50m.

Oof and majority of fans here are pounding the table for this 55m plus deal. Oof let them have it then and graciously bump this thread 3 years from now.

 

[WestLondonDolphin]

Tua sucks on 3rd down. Mahomes is great. There is the difference. Miami runs a gimmick offense (throw to a spot) to prevent 3rd and longs. Tua cannot keep plays alive with his legs and his arm strength does not instill fear. Miami scores points but when the chips are down late in the game, time and again, Tua has folded against decent teams.

Tua beat the blitz by throwing to Tyreek on obvious blitzing downs and Reek gained the necessary yardage. Tua was a one-read guy last year until Reek got hurt. Then he had to throw downfield jto Waddle and Cedrick Wilson before third down. The Titans game (where Reek was hurt) exposed Tua and he never recovered.

Feels like it’s you that hasn’t recovered from the trauma of the Titans loss.

I get it … very disappointing.

Re. “gimmick offense” …

The Dolphins led the league in total offense (401.3) - for the first time since 1994 - as well as passing offense (265.5) and quarterback hits allowed (59). That all translated into the league's second-ranked scoring offense (29.2) operated by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa led the NFL with a career-high 4,624 passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (29). He also finished fourth in passer rating (101.1), third in completion percentage (69.3) and second in yards per pass attempt (8.3).

 

[Mach2]

Agreed and yes 40m on a 4 year deal would be ideal. Eh and 45 is as high as I'd go.

Oof and majority of fans here are pounding the table for this 55m plus deal. Oof let them have it then and graciously bump this thread 3 years from now.

The advertised per year number is meaningless, therefore arguing on that basis is also meaningless and flawed.

What matters is guaranteed money.

There is no difference between 45 and 55 million fantasy numbers if the guaranteed money and term of guarantees are the same.

Take a look at the actual contract details and specifics of the top QBs.

Now you can take the completely understandable position of saying you don't have time, interest, etc to get that deep into it, but then realize that posting some random number like you did is not the reality of how these contracts works. It's far too much of a generalization for a complex $200m contract.

 

[Gsmack_42]

Agreed and yes 40m on a 4 year deal would be ideal. Eh and 45 is as high as I'd go. Of course this is just where I value Tua. I don't see this realistically playing out.. I don't see him signing less than 50m.

Oof and majority of fans here are pounding the table for this 55m plus deal. Oof let them have it then and graciously bump this thread 3 years from now.

I don’t see the majority pounding the table for 55 million plus. I see the majority knowing that’s what it’s probably going to take to resign him.

 

[E30M3]

Anyone who's AAV starts with a 4 doesn't know what they are talking about. Period. Cap increases so does that number. And also AAV is stupid. Talk about guarantee instead and we can have a discussion. Until then your opinion is noted and thrown in the trash can.

 

[Fin Fan in Cali]

The advertised per year number is meaningless, therefore arguing on that basis is also meaningless and flawed.

What matters is guaranteed money.

There is no difference between 45 and 55 million fantasy numbers if the guaranteed money and term of guarantees are the same.

Take a look at the actual contract details and specifics of the top QBs.

Now you can take the completely understandable position of saying you don't have time, interest, etc to get that deep into it, but then realize that posting some random number like you did is not the reality of how these contracts works. It's far too much of a generalization for a complex $200m contract.

Nice post brother.

Deep Dive into the Trevor Lawrence $275M Contract Extension | Over the Cap

Deep Dive into the Trevor Lawrence $275M Contract Extension | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

 

[Mach2]

I don’t see the majority pounding the table for 55 million plus. I see the majority knowing that’s what it’s probably going to take to resign him.

I can't speak to what the majority think. I can say the majority do not know enough about the specifics of other top QB contracts to have an informed opinion.

They throw numbers around without any context. They have no concept of positional cap percentage allocated. They do not consider things like guarantees or potential "contract outs" and dead money created