What history shows Dolphins could get with slight trade down. And potential options | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

What history shows Dolphins could get with slight trade down. And potential options

dolfan91 said:
If the Jets take Sewell at #2 the value of pick #3 increases significantly, with both Wilson and Fields still available. The question becomes does Miami see that same value and take another QB, make a another selection or do they trade it for additional draft capital.
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I agree with this totally. If the Jets were to take Sewell I think a bidding war opens up for our #3 pick. You'll have teams trying to jump to our exact spot bc everyone knows we aren't going QB. I think if were hoping to really fleece somebody and get a kings ransom for #3 then this is the best scenario we could hope for. Which is why I highly doubt we see a trade before draft night. Everyone's kind of waiting to see what the Jets are going to do. I think they are the wildcard bc basically everything is depending on what they do at #2. Either way we win. If the Jets take Sewell then a bidding war begins which obviously we all want. If the Jets pass on Sewell and we can't get anybody to give us what we want then were getting the best OT prospect in quite a few years and basically solidifying our entire OL for at least the next 4/5 years and hopefully beyond. I would say FINALLY... THE MIAMI DOLPHINS are in the SWEET SPOT haha.
 
SCLSU Mud Dogs said:
Hey OP, it's illegal to copy and paste an entire article from a website in here. Especially when it's content that sits behind a soft pay wall.
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Illegal to cite a journalistic body’s publication? Even if it is a paid membership, wouldn’t that imply that the OP had purchased the rights to access the article?

Under what jurisdiction is this law? Who governs this law?
 
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That's a lot of potential trade partners there! I'm curious, why don't you also discuss trading up to #1? As long as we're looking at all the options ... why not explore the obvious one, because it is also an interesting possibility.
 
Mach2 said:
I don't think we differ on the value of the position. QB is, obviously, the premier position, but unlike other positions, you can only play one. Let's look a a scenario where we draft a QB, and he comes in and takes the starting job. Do you think you can recoup anything close to a #5, that we have invested, for Tua? Obviously not, so wheres the value?
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If Tua doesn't connect, then you have lost value at every other position, no matter how well they play

This league has been defined by scared conventional wisdom far too long. Fortunately it is beginning to change. If you miss big on a pick you're not supposed to think you can recoup. You chalk it up. If both quarterbacks look like NFL starters then there is bonanza in trading one of them. Numerous examples of that.

You know when I realized this league was beginning to turn the corner in terms of sharps? When teams down by 14 in the 4th quarter would score and then go for 2. I was screaming for that on Las Vegas radio more than 30 years ago. Why in the heck do these idiotic teams down 14 think they are likely to score, score and score again? No problem. You've been defined as inferior all game now apparently it's no big deal to rattle off three consecutive scores, two of them touchdowns. But go for 2 successfully on that first touchdown and all of a sudden the entire teams perks up and the other side is tense because they realize you are only 7 away from stealing it from them.

Analytics is going to mean multiple high picks at quarterback. Consecutive years or even the same year. Just a matter of time.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
If Tua doesn't connect, then you have lost value at every other position, no matter how well they play

This league has been defined by scared conventional wisdom far too long. Fortunately it is beginning to change. If you miss big on a pick you're not supposed to think you can recoup. You chalk it up. If both quarterbacks look like NFL starters then there is bonanza in trading one of them. Numerous examples of that.

You know when I realized this league was beginning to turn the corner in terms of sharps? When teams down by 14 in the 4th quarter would score and then go for 2. I was screaming for that on Las Vegas radio more than 30 years ago. Why in the heck do these idiotic teams down 14 think they are likely to score, score and score again? No problem. You've been defined as inferior all game now apparently it's no big deal to rattle off three consecutive scores, two of them touchdowns. But go for 2 successfully on that first touchdown and all of a sudden the entire teams perks up and the other side is tense because they realize you are only 7 away from stealing it from them.

Analytics is going to mean multiple high picks at quarterback. Consecutive years or even the same year. Just a matter of time.
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Can you cite a couple of those numerous examples of getting a bonanza that was anything close to the initial investment?

I'm not against the premise of the Phins taking another QB. I doubt they will, but not against it. I do think it is case specific, though, not a matter of analytics.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
If Tua doesn't connect, then you have lost value at every other position, no matter how well they play

This league has been defined by scared conventional wisdom far too long. Fortunately it is beginning to change. If you miss big on a pick you're not supposed to think you can recoup. You chalk it up. If both quarterbacks look like NFL starters then there is bonanza in trading one of them. Numerous examples of that.

You know when I realized this league was beginning to turn the corner in terms of sharps? When teams down by 14 in the 4th quarter would score and then go for 2. I was screaming for that on Las Vegas radio more than 30 years ago. Why in the heck do these idiotic teams down 14 think they are likely to score, score and score again? No problem. You've been defined as inferior all game now apparently it's no big deal to rattle off three consecutive scores, two of them touchdowns. But go for 2 successfully on that first touchdown and all of a sudden the entire teams perks up and the other side is tense because they realize you are only 7 away from stealing it from them.

Analytics is going to mean multiple high picks at quarterback. Consecutive years or even the same year. Just a matter of time.
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In 20 years of watching the draft the only team I have ever seen draft 1st round QBs in back to back years was the Cardinals. They received a late 2nd round pick after drafting Rosen 10th overall the previous year. Most teams will view that as an absolutely horrendous trade by the Dolphins. If we draft a QB 3rd, Tua has almost no value (compared to where we picked him) because teams know we have to trade him. The only real exception to this is when you end up with the 1st overall pick and have an elite QB prospect on the board. Miami might bite the bullet and draft Lawrence, like Arizona drafting Murray, simply because the risk is even with the reward. Drafting the 3rd best QB though...crazy.
 
ThePeopleShow13 said:
In 20 years of watching the draft the only team I have ever seen draft 1st round QBs in back to back years was the Cardinals. They received a late 2nd round pick after drafting Rosen 10th overall the previous year. Most teams will view that as an absolutely horrendous trade by the Dolphins. If we draft a QB 3rd, Tua has almost no value (compared to where we picked him) because teams know we have to trade him. The only real exception to this is when you end up with the 1st overall pick and have an elite QB prospect on the board. Miami might bite the bullet and draft Lawrence, like Arizona drafting Murray, simply because the risk is even with the reward. Drafting the 3rd best QB though...crazy.
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I'd call Houston. Offer them Miami 3rd, Tua and a 2nd for Watson or.
Miami 3rd, Tua, 18th and 4th round pick for Watson and a 2nd.
 
I dont agree that the Fins are in position where they must pick a WR early. Its not the only weakness on the team. The OL still wasn't good. We still didn't get consistent pressure, still gave up way too much in run defense.

I'm a firm believer that you take BPA, especially when picking top 10. Sewell, IMO, playing LT (and hes not moving to RT) not only gives us a top 10 oline, hes a foundational piece of a championship roster. He and Kindley over there makes our running and passing game better. Jackson and Hunt on right side are more than competent.

But let's say we sign Allen Robinson or Chris Godwin in FA. We get Albert Wilson back. Preston fully recovers. That 120 receptions, easy, IMO.

We could pick Sewell at 3, lock down a great oline, pick Terrace Marshall at 18...pick a top notch RB 2a...our offense is dramatically better (taking into acct the implied improvement of all players between 1st and 2nd year).

We aren't picking WRs solely based on the disgustingly under talented roster of WRs that lined up in Buffalo last week.
 
Dthrill_08 said:
I'd call Houston. Offer them Miami 3rd, Tua and a 2nd for Watson or.
Miami 3rd, Tua, 18th and 4th round pick for Watson and a 2nd.
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Why would Houston even take that call?

If your starting premise is that Tua isn't good, why would they want him?

If your starting premise is that Tua is good, then why would we do that?

That's before we even get into the dead money cap issues they would have by trading him.

Watson is a good, and fairly young QB. I just don't see how it could be mutually benificial.
 
I appreciate TrinidadDolfan's analysis on what we could realistically get from trading down. I'm of the view that Miami has lucked out big time from the disastrous season that Houston sustained. Yes, GM Chris Grier negotiated the Tunsil deal brilliantly to set this up, but drafting #3 is way better than any of us could have dreamed of back at the start of the season. For that reason I'm tempted not to try to get too cute. If another team offers a boatload of future draft picks to move up Grier has to seriously consider doing the deal. However, as it stands we are in the box seat to get the best wide receiver in the draft. DeVonta Smith is the first WR to win the Heisman Trophy in 30 years. He also has a proven connection with Tua. All of my instincts tell me to draft the obvious. Tua needs WRs and we can get him the very best to help build his confidence.
 
dolfan91 said:
If the Jets take Sewell at #2 the value of pick #3 increases significantly, with both Wilson and Fields still available. The question becomes does Miami see that same value and take another QB, make a another selection or do they trade it for additional draft capital.
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Miami would certainly have to do their due diligence and carefully evaluate those QBs. Now, Considering Jets are going to get a new HC/GM they should be fired them immediately(before the end of the 1st round) if they chose Sewell over a new QB. You just don't do that if you're starting fresh as a HC/GM. You tie yourself to the QB you drafted instead of the leftovers from the previous regime. Further you put yourself in cap hell in a few years with Sewell and Becton assuming they play up to top 5-10 at their position. You're not going to be able to pay both top notch money for their respective position.

Overrall, I have a hard time seeing the Jets be that crazy!
 
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