What if the Dolphins wait until next year to pick a QB?

[volk]

I agree. Maybe to placate a hyper minority of fans who have a problem being decisive maybe we should never fix the QB position. Fiedler has to have a son by now right?

There is a big difference between being indecisive and simply wanting to pick the right player. We all know that if Tua isn't the choice, this board will go insane with tirades of how we blew the draft, even if another QBis picked. I also find the unwillingness to draft a QB next year interesting, as though seasons were so precious, when most of the same fans didn't want a single win this year.

All that aside, I fail to see how drafting a lower QB prospect this year is a better alternative to pushing for a high rated prospect next year? People are advocating moving up to grab an injury disaster, but moving up next year will be too expensive?

I am not really advocating any one approach here or bashing anyon's position, but the inconsistencies are striking.

 

[dolfan91]

Could be. I agree with you on Herbert and Love. It's a bit of a roll the dice, or how good the coaching staff is in developing players and getting players around the quarterback position.

Tua looks elite and I still think he's the target. Your right about the injury. I think projecting him as a 10+ year starter might be optimistic. Would a team be happy to get an Andrew Luck type of career out of Tua? FIve years of elite play? That's where you weigh Tua's durability against developing lesser talent like Herbert or Love.

The problem with waiting until next year is simply the unknown and all the variables with players. Players get hurt. We've seen that with Tua. Players might not declare, Miami might overachieve and not be able to trade up. What looks like a good quarterback group may not end up there when all is said and done, or the Dolphins may not be able to get one of the top quarterbacks.

I agree about waiting and the unknowns. That right there is the main reason I labeled Miami as potentially being in desperation mode for a QB in 2020. The fear is picking a QB in 2020 and being in the same boat as the NY Jets with Darnold, Cleveland Browns with Baker Mayfield and the Buffalo Bills with Allen, as their QB's. Neither has distinguished themselves as improving and leading their respective teams, to playoff contention or elite status. That's how I view all the QB's outside of Tua. To be honest I'd rather fill in the rest of the roster with elite players, then swing for the fences on a QB, similar to what KC and Houston did with Mahomes and Watson.

 

[Kamelion4291]

There is a big difference between being indecisive and simply wanting to pick the right player. We all know that if Tua isn't the choice, this board will go insane with tirades of how we blew the draft, even if another QBis picked. I also find the unwillingness to draft a QB next year interesting, as though seasons were so precious, when most of the same fans didn't want a single win this year.

All that aside, I fail to see how drafting a lower QB prospect this year is a better alternative to pushing for a high rated prospect next year? People are advocating moving up to grab an injury disaster, but moving up next year will be too expensive?

I am not really advocating any one approach here or bashing anyon's position, but the inconsistencies are striking.

When you say "next year" for a QB all I hear is a guy who doesn't watch much college football. If you knew the crop of QBs coming out next year like some of us do, you'd realize that the time to take a chance with the position that we're in is now, not later.

You're operating under an incorrect assumption that every draft is filled with the same opportunities.

 

[Fin-Loco]

There is a big difference between being indecisive and simply wanting to pick the right player. We all know that if Tua isn't the choice, this board will go insane with tirades of how we blew the draft, even if another QBis picked. I also find the unwillingness to draft a QB next year interesting, as though seasons were so precious, when most of the same fans didn't want a single win this year.

All that aside, I fail to see how drafting a lower QB prospect this year is a better alternative to pushing for a high rated prospect next year? People are advocating moving up to grab an injury disaster, but moving up next year will be too expensive?

I am not really advocating any one approach here or bashing anyon's position, but the inconsistencies are striking.

I understand your point but we're 20 years of being pathetically mediocre and most of us are hanging on by our toenails. Furthermore, each Monday at the water cooler, we're getting closer and closer to jacking Patriot gloating Tom in the throat and going to jail. This is a very solid QB draft. Lets swing for Tua, Herbert or Burrow. If it's not working out, we can move them ala Rosen and do it again next year. At some point, you need to swing the bat.

 

[Dolphinator530]

Next year is a top heavy class going 1 and 2, there are some possible bloomers and high risers but as of right now its 2 guys with a first round grade. And while some seem to think both are studs who are basically flawless I would beg to differ. But here is the real issue, like some have said it is a great unknown on where Miami will stand in next years draft. Lets say Miami performs similar to this year or sees the slightest improvement to 6-10 since 2015 here is the draft positioning of 5 and 6 wins...

2015:
5 wins - 7
6 wins - 8-10

2016:
5 wins - 5-7
6 wins - 8-11

2017:
5 wins - 6-7
6 wins - 8-9

2018:
5 wins - 5-8
6 wins - 9-11

2019:
5 wins - 6-7
6 wins - 8-12

2020:
5 wins - 5-8
6 wins - 9-10

So if Miami wins just 1 more game next year you can reasonably expect them to be somewhere between 8-11 in the draft order. Since at the moment the QB class is really a two horse race and will likely go 1/2. Can you imagine having to trade up that much? If this year people think it will take all 3 first rounders to move up 3 spots (which I do not agree with) how much of the future will Miami have to mortgage to jump that high. That is far more risky than taking a chance on Tua even with the injury history. Your QB has to hit and be tremendous if you are willing to give that much away, and the roster will likely still be in the development phase even with this whole off season and a FA period next year I doubt it will be at full strength.

This year is the time to strike because a 90% Tua is equal or better than the guys next year and if he can play at a higher level than that he is better. My opinion of course. And you will not have to spend all the future capital you can use to build around a QB versus having to spend 2/3 years of no first round picks and likely few to no 2nd round picks in moving to get one of the top guys next year.

My two cents take it for what its worth.

 

[hoops]

This is definitely the year to pluck the qb.

 

[ANUFan]

I'm on the fence about Herbert and Love being elite QB's. They certainly have talent and moldable skills. But both are no certainty to ever develop beyond what they are now. But they also have a chance to grow into very capable NFL Starting caliber QB's. Tua on the other hand, has the tools to be elite. The problem, as we well know, is his health. As for 2021, on the surface the QB class looks to be better than the offerings the 2020 class has, outside of Tua, if healthy. To me 2020 seems like a year where Miami is being somewhat desperate and it could cost them, in making a bad decision on a QB who needs just a bit too much work. That's the dilemma as I see it. The better prospects are on the defensive side of the ball @ #5.

Yep...we don't think they maybe elite so lets sit on our hands another year and wait for that magic obvious QB that's going to be great the following year.
You know, if that magic obvious QB isn't there next year lets wait the year afterward....

Madness...

 

[Geordie]

When you say "next year" for a QB all I hear is a guy who doesn't watch much college football. If you knew the crop of QBs coming out next year like some of us do, you'd realize that the time to take a chance with the position that we're in is now, not later.

You're operating under an incorrect assumption that every draft is filled with the same opportunities.

Absolutely, next year there are two QBs you would bank on making it at the next level, the rest, without of course having played the 2020 season, are pretty underwhelming. We will most likely have a better record next year as we will be spending a bunch of money in FA and using the massive amount of draft picks we have. We are going to be no where near Lawrence and Fields, right now we have less capital in 2021 to move up. Holding off a year makes zero sense. Right now we have the chance to draft one of the two premier QBs in this draft, even QBs 3-6 are stronger at the moment than next year's presumptive crop will be.

 

[Etuoo33]

I mean did he really? My personal opinion was the actual playbook had nothing to do with it. I understand the concepts.

but I do agree with you that if that’s actually the case experience level has a hell of an advantage. I tried to tell folks that relative to tannehill

IMO, you have top factor in the WR, RB, TE, and even OL to the playbook being overwhelming. 1 (or 2+) mistake is all it takes to blow up a play, and it's not all on the QB. In a veteran offense, with continuity, it's easier to replace 1 or 2 individual parts. These cats may not even have the talent it takes to compete in the NFL, much less learn that complex playbook.

 

[NBP81]

I think regardless of what you think next year's class looks like its a projection... Reality is the Fins are much more likely to end up in a worst postion then they are now than to end up with a much better QB class next season... This is why you dont wait... Forget the names, consider the opportunity.

 

[Rowdy1972]

So if we wait another year to draft a QB and sit that QB his first year, we will have to wait until 2022 to actually see a QB play thats worth a damn? No thank you. That would be three years of throw away football before the season even starts. Like the last 20 years.

 

[Etuoo33]

My 2 cents? I take #18 and a 2nd, move up and take Love. Either QB will sit this coming year and I like Love's upside/value.

 

[Geordie]

So if we wait another year to draft a QB and sit that QB his first year, we will have to wait until 2022 to actually see a QB play thats worth a damn? No thank you. That would be three years of throw away football before the season even starts. Like the last 20 years.

Yep and at the same time almost completely wiping out the draft cap advantage we currently have, unless of course we decide not to spend any money this off season too and trade away all our first rounders.

 

[Mach2]

No you were clear, Im starting to think that I write in a way that looks confrontational even when Im not trying to be... That would explain alot actually...

Luv ya as a poster brother, but you do, at times, give the impression that ppl who disagree are "dumb", or just being arguementative.

After a few exchanges, it was apparent to me that it isn't intended that way. You're just a passionate fan, who stands by his convictions.

 

[Travis34]

Next year is a top heavy class going 1 and 2, there are some possible bloomers and high risers but as of right now its 2 guys with a first round grade. And while some seem to think both are studs who are basically flawless I would beg to differ. But here is the real issue, like some have said it is a great unknown on where Miami will stand in next years draft. Lets say Miami performs similar to this year or sees the slightest improvement to 6-10 since 2015 here is the draft positioning of 5 and 6 wins...

2015:
5 wins - 7
6 wins - 8-10

2016:
5 wins - 5-7
6 wins - 8-11

2017:
5 wins - 6-7
6 wins - 8-9

2018:
5 wins - 5-8
6 wins - 9-11

2019:
5 wins - 6-7
6 wins - 8-12

2020:
5 wins - 5-8
6 wins - 9-10

So if Miami wins just 1 more game next year you can reasonably expect them to be somewhere between 8-11 in the draft order. Since at the moment the QB class is really a two horse race and will likely go 1/2. Can you imagine having to trade up that much? If this year people think it will take all 3 first rounders to move up 3 spots (which I do not agree with) how much of the future will Miami have to mortgage to jump that high. That is far more risky than taking a chance on Tua even with the injury history. Your QB has to hit and be tremendous if you are willing to give that much away, and the roster will likely still be in the development phase even with this whole off season and a FA period next year I doubt it will be at full strength.

This year is the time to strike because a 90% Tua is equal or better than the guys next year and if he can play at a higher level than that he is better. My opinion of course. And you will not have to spend all the future capital you can use to build around a QB versus having to spend 2/3 years of no first round picks and likely few to no 2nd round picks in moving to get one of the top guys next year.

My two cents take it for what its worth.

This right here is the best laid out explanation of why now vs later makes more sense, trade up wise.