I noted that you left those two out originally. I agree they are more borderline. Clever resourceful players who can impose physically in some areas but are not going to be as athletically dominant at the next level.
I've already detailed Chase Young's less than impressive test scores coming out of high school. Tee Higgins ran 4.75 in the 40 during those drills. He'll be faster than that this spring but how much?
Overall these receivers didn't test as well as one would expect out of high school. CeeDee Lamb was 4.60. Jeudy probably had the best overall athletic profile among the top rated guys:
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There is one variable that accounts for a high percentage of first round busts at wide receiver. The NFL ignores that historically the ideal height for that position is 5-11 to 6-1. That shows up basically regardless of what criteria you look at. Yet the league continually falls in love with taller guys and rationalizes that this time it will be different. Well, it will be different in certain cases. You'll hit huge. But I have no idea how they can be surprised when so many of the taller receivers follow the historical norm of not panning out, guys like Charles Rogers or Kevin White or Laquon Treadwell, and I could keep going and going.
It will happen in this crop also. Jeudy at only 6-1 is probably advantaged not disadvantaged. It sort of reminds me of LPGA golf in which 5-6 height is overwhelmingly the most favorable range in terms of enough physical power but also short enough to have a repetitive swing. The much taller more powerful girls show up and are hyped far beyond the 5-6 types but most of them have erratic disappointing careers.
I typically dislike taller receivers, because quickness/route running, coordination, and toughness/aggressiveness, and ball skills are much more important than size. Those skills, or the right balance of those skills, are relatively rare, so it makes sense to me that you'd find them more often in someone closer to an average-sized man (not counting bulk/strength, as all NFL players have been lifting weights for years). If a player has the skillset, though, I don't think height is a hindrance. It's just that most tall receivers don't have those tools and got by in college by winning jump balls, which will be low-percentage plays in the NFL.
Tee Higgins has a good balance of those skills imo. The #2 WR coming out of HS, with a basketball background, he's smooth, quick, and doesn't waste steps in his routes. He also tracks the ball as well as anyone, and he plays well from the Slot, where he's among the best seam threats I've seen in a WR. DK Metcalf and Greedy Williams both ran 4.7 40's coming out of HS, and Draft Scout has his Higgins's projected 40 at 4.47 - with 4.57 as his high and 4.36 as his low. If I had to guess, based on watching him, I'd say he runs between 4.52 and 4.55, which would be right around where AJ Green ran, and his high projection of 4.57 would match Nuke Hopkins and Michael Thomas.
Despite only playing a little more than a half in most games, Higgins is currently tied for the Clemson record, with 27 career TD's. He leads the class in yards per route run (just ahead of Lamb), and he's PFF's highest-graded Power 5 receiver. Before his injury vs Ohio State, Higgins had two reps vs Okudah. The first, Okudah was in Off, and Higgins looked very quick on the 21-yard gain - broke Okudah's tackle for good measure. The next play, Okudah was in press with Safety help, and Higgins got a couple steps on him, but Lawrence put the ball too far outside and was a little late on the throw. Higgins still came down with an impressive catch, despite being injured on the play, but he was out of bounds.
My main takeaway is that Higgins is different from most tall receivers, even highly-rated ones. He's a lot more skilled and versatile. Lamb is my favorite, and I go back and forth between separating him from Higgins and Jeudy, but I think those are the clear Top 3. I know Slimm and CK (Chambers, too) are really high on Shenault, and I love his ceiling, too, but I think he carries more risk than my Top 3. Ruggs is a little tough, because he could be T. Hill or W. Fuller, and I think he'll absolutely be a valuable player in the NFL, but I think he's likely a complementary receiver in the NFL - more Top 40 than Top 20. He'll probably go Top 20, though.
I love that Slimm included Bowden, because he's a true alpha with uncommon burst and instincts as a runner, and he's more polished than you'd think - creates separation, tracks the ball well, and makes tough catches.
I think it's most likely that Miami ignores WR early, which is a mistake imo, but it is what it is. In that scenario, Bowden, Tyler Johnson, and Isaiah Hodgins are some of my favorites, and I think each has a legitimate chance to be elite. Just as importantly, all come with relatively high floors.
