Indeed, we did nail the Ginn and Allen picks.
The only picks I've wanted to change so far were:
1. Sneaking Knowshon into the first round. He's falling but someone will take him.
2. Probably flip-flopping the Eagles and Ravens picks. I am thinking the Eagles will go with Maclin first and the Ravens would go with Heyward-Bey after that. The Ravens just recently sent Joe Flacco over to throw some passes with Heyward-Bey.
Every mock draft is "one of the worst I've seen" to some people out there. The bottom line is you either know what you're talking about and are ready to back up your opinion with a knowledge of the facts...or you don't.
Fact of the matter is, by the time I got to the #25 pick, I see a lot of people off the board. Much as I wish they'd take him, I don't see Miami having interest in Jarron Gilbert.
Much as I'm tempted to have them take Darius Butler or Sean Smith, I refuse to project them using a first round pick on a cornerback UNTIL I see Parcells and Ireland sign off on taking a corner high in the draft. Right now, the history just is not there. There is no proof that Jeff Ireland wanted Terrance Newman, and we know for a fact that Parcells wanted Kevin Williams in that draft and was told by Larry Lacewell and Jerry Jones that they would be taking Newman instead. Looking at the draft history aside from Newman (who was an override), when have you ever seen Parcells or Ireland use a high pick on a cornerback? I don't even know if they have ever selected one in the second or third round, to be honest. Look at their free agency dealings. Last year everyone SCREAMED for some more corners. What did they do? They didn't even sign one, let alone draft one. Now, we lose Andre Goodman, and everyone screams again for a corner. One by one the better cornerbacks get snapped up, and nothing from Miami...until they get the super dynamic and all world prospect ERIC GREEN. These guys don't value the corner position that highly IMO.
So I'm standing here looking at our options at #25 given whom I have going where...and who else would we take?
Laurinaitis? For a 3-4 defense? Really?
Receiver? I believe a receiver is possible, but Nicks is already off the board and I have a real tough time projecting underclassmen track stars who never met a pro receiver route they liked all the way at #25 in the draft. On the other hand, Kenny Britt IS a possibility if things fall the way I have them. Just, not necessarily the possibility that I see in Michael Johnson.
Who else? Ziggy Hood and Peria Jerry gone. Robert Ayers gone. B.J. Raji LONG gone. Aaron Maybin gone. No Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown (though I personally don't know if I'd take them anyway). No Clay Matthews, Rey Maualuga or Brian Cushing...gone, gone, gone.
So, who? No QBs, no RBs, no OTs, no OCs, probably no OGs, probably no TEs, probably no CBs (again, IMO), no Safeties...
That leaves:
Kenny Britt
Jeremy Maclin (or Darius Heyward-Bey)
Percy Harvin
Ron Brace
Jarron Gilbert
Michael Johnson
Connor Barwin
Larrry English
James Laurinaitis
Like I said, Laurinaitis in a 3-4? Not seeing it. Also, unfortunately, not seeing interest in Gilbert. A defensive tackle that can't crack a 5.5 going at #25? Not seeing it. An underclassman who never met a pro receiver route he liked? Not seeing it.
The realistic possibilities are Kenny Britt, Connor Barwin, Michael Johnson and Larry English. Among those, English' grade is not holding up. He didn't play good competition and he's not testing out well. At this point I'm not sure what he has as a prospect that Paul Kruger does not. If you're going to go with a prospect of THAT particular nature, you can wait until the second round. Kenny Britt, very possible but I'm just not quite sold. Connor Barwin or Michael Johnson? Both test out just as well. People want to say that Johnson is more of an underachiever, but why? Barwin was a backup tight end at Cincinnati for years despite all of that athleticism. He performed well on defense this year but he goes from tight end one year, to defensive end the next year, to linebacker the year after that? I do NOT see that. The guy is raw as an onion, and can make you cry as much as one too if you try and put him out at linebacker early and expect him to "get it" right away. He doesn't even "get" defensive end. Now he's supposed to "get" linebacker? Not to mention I've seen the guy pass rush and I'm not totally convinced he's the same quality pass rusher as Michael Johnson. Johnson has been taking on pro quality prospects and beating them for years...he just wasn't a started until this year because he didn't have the stamina.
Last year around this pick they brought in a guy in Phil Merling whom they knew could make an impact as a role player, but whom they knew needed a while in their off season training and conditioning program before he'd be ready to do anything special. I see Michael Johnson as much the same way.
Could I change the pick? Yeah. Like I said, I think they could go with Kenny Britt, MAYBE even Darius Butler or Sean Smith even though it would be basically the first time they've ever valued a CB that high...maybe Connor Barwin too, though I have a hunch on Johnson. And, if something leads me to change my mock to where I have Maybin, Matthews or Cushing dropping to #25, I would have any of those guys going over Michael Johnson.
But this is how I have it.