Cutler better than Tannehill? No. This article says it all | Page 15 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Cutler better than Tannehill? No. This article says it all

Alex Smith is the consummate game manger. He typically leads the league in interceptions per pass attempt, meaning he rarely loses games, while his overall skill level also rarely wins games.

This also Tannehill.

The year that Alex Smith is one of the league leaders in accuracy of deep passes, I'll agree with this.
 
Yes, that's what he has that Tannehill doesn't, but he also throws picks that Tannehill will not. And picks are very costly in the NFL.
Tannehill has made that play dozens of times. What was missing on that play was two guards in his lap at the same time as outside pressure.
 
I posted the definition of a game manager. your definition of it is not the way it's viewed in the NFL.


There could be some lack of clarity regarding the definition. The way the league views it could indeed be pejorative. I have no idea.

The way I view it is that there are three types of QBs in the league, 1) the ones that often win games themselves and don't require as much talent around them for their teams to be very good, 2) the game managers who rarely lose or win games by themselves, and who need lots of talent around them for their teams to be very good, and 3) the game losers, who are like the balls and chains of their teams, pulling them down to mediocrity or worse, even if there happens to be lots of talent around them.

Players like Tannehill and Alex Smith are in the middle group, the game managers. Cutler overall functions at that level too, because his top-level skills are counterbalanced by his gunslinging nature and the mistakes he makes. For every game he wins with his high-level skills, he'll lose another with his gunslinging and interceptions.

This is why Gase got Cutler to have his best year in a long time in 2015. He kept him about as aggressive but got him to cut down on the mistakes.

The exciting prospect is that with the greater surrounding talent in Miami, Gase can get Cutler to do even better. I wouldn't put money on it, but it's a neat thing to think about.
 
The year that Alex Smith is one of the league leaders in accuracy of deep passes, I'll agree with this.


Deep passing doesn't mean much, though, in terms of winning. Limiting interceptions means far more, and Smith is so good in that area that it more than compensates for his lack of aggressiveness downfield, when we're talking about QBs at the game manager level.

The upshot is that he and Tannehill are more interchangeable than they are anything else with regard to each other. Tannehill is more successfully aggressive, but Smith protects the ball better. In the end they even out in comparison with each other, and neither really offers his team any better a chance of winning than the other.
 
There could be some lack of clarity regarding the definition. The way the league views it could indeed be pejorative. I have no idea.

The way I view it is that there are three types of QBs in the league, 1) the ones that often win games themselves and don't require as much talent around them for their teams to be very good, 2) the game managers who rarely lose or win games by themselves, and who need lots of talent around them for their teams to be very good, and 3) the game losers, who are like the balls and chains of their teams, pulling them down to mediocrity or worse, even if there happens to be lots of talent around them.

Players like Tannehill and Alex Smith are in the middle group, the game managers. Cutler overall functions at that level too, because his top-level skills are counterbalanced by his gunslinging nature and the mistakes he makes. For every game he wins with his high-level skills, he'll lose another with his gunslinging and interceptions.

This is why Gase got Cutler to have his best year in a long time in 2015. He kept him about as aggressive but got him to cut down on the mistakes.

The exciting prospect is that with the greater surrounding talent in Miami, Gase can get Cutler to do even better. I wouldn't put money on it, but it's a neat thing to think about.

Much too simplistic. You even admit that Cutler doesn't fit into any of your categories. IMO, no QB can "often win games by themselves". Certainly some are better than others and are able to continue to play well under more adverse situations or are more well rounded and able to take what the defense gives them.

The one great equalizer for all QBs is pass pressure without blitzes. Read any article describing the way to beat top QBs and it is always the same - pressure them. If you can generate that pressure without giving up something else, the QB cannot exploit the weakness you create. Without a blitz, there is no hot read. Pressure from 4 or 3 leaves 7 or 8 in coverage. This is what Tannehill faced repeatedly in 2013, 2014, and 2015. Couple that with a meager running game, predictable play calling, excessive number of 3rd and long, and you have a recipe for QB disaster.
 
Deep passing doesn't mean much, though, in terms of winning. Limiting interceptions means far more, and Smith is so good in that area that it more than compensates for his lack of aggressiveness downfield, when we're talking about QBs at the game manager level.

This is simply not true. YPA correlates better with winning than INT %.
 
Much too simplistic. You even admit that Cutler doesn't fit into any of your categories. IMO, no QB can "often win games by themselves". Certainly some are better than others and are able to continue to play well under more adverse situations or are more well rounded and able to take what the defense gives them.

The one great equalizer for all QBs is pass pressure without blitzes. Read any article describing the way to beat top QBs and it is always the same - pressure them. If you can generate that pressure without giving up something else, the QB cannot exploit the weakness you create. Without a blitz, there is no hot read. Pressure from 4 or 3 leaves 7 or 8 in coverage. This is what Tannehill faced repeatedly in 2013, 2014, and 2015. Couple that with a meager running game, predictable play calling, excessive number of 3rd and long, and you have a recipe for QB disaster.


But that sort of thing is also a function of quarterback play, in that when a quarterback plays well and helps his team score points, the opposing defense is kept off-balance and can't dial up as much pressure. It has to stay honest versus the run, and pressure suffers.

This is why poor QBs are pressured more. They're more often in situations in which they're down on the scoreboard, and the opposing defense can sell out against the pass.

The QB bears some of the responsibility for keeping the pressure off of him. He does this by engineering scoring drives.
 
Yes, that's what he has that Tannehill doesn't, but he also throws picks that Tannehill will not. And picks are very costly in the NFL.

That was a very good play. Good coverage route adjustment by dvp and well thrown off one foot back shoulder dart. Nice climb of the pocket too. A+. Now where's the video of the jump ball he threw to dvp that the safety weddle is running under cause he's staring it down from his 2nd step in his drop?
 
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But that sort of thing is also a function of quarterback play, in that when a quarterback plays well and helps his team score points, the opposing defense is kept off-balance and can't dial up as much pressure. It has to stay honest versus the run, and pressure suffers.

This is why poor QBs are pressured more. They're more often in situations in which they're down on the scoreboard, and the opposing defense can sell out against the pass.

The QB bears some of the responsibility for keeping the pressure off of him. He does this by engineering scoring drives.

EVERY player bears some responsibility, but if you can't run block or pass block, no QB will be successful.
 
Yes, that's what he has that Tannehill doesn't, but he also throws picks that Tannehill will not. And picks are very costly in the NFL.
Tannehill doesn't?
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I'm increasingly of the view that the key to predicting how Cutler will perform is Jay Ajayi and whether we can establish the running game, or not. If Ajayi can run well and make steady yardage, Coach Gase can afford to be quite conservative in his playcalling for Cutler. However, if Ajayi struggles to get yardage for 1st downs or gets injured, the J-train #23 isn't rolling and Cutler will be more of a big gunslinger and risk increases as he becomes prone to throwing interceptions which have cursed much of his career. In Chicago, Cutler could rely on Matt Forte and the use of bubble screens to make big yardage from explosive plays. Last season Ajayi did his damage with traditional runs from handoff, but has apparently worked on catching the screen passes this offseason.
Currently we have concerns at O-line due to injuries. We are thin at Guard if we are talking about Jesse Davis, an undrafted player who has struggled to make an NFL roster over the past 2 years, now coming in as a starter at Guard. (Davis is a former NY Jets training camp castoff). We also need to see how healthy Pouncey and James are.
I am pretty optimistic that our Defense can improve with the acquisition of players like William Hayes, Laurence Timmons and now Ray Maualuga to stop the run. Our D-line and DBs should be good but I'm an optimist by nature. My concerns go back to the O-line and getting them healthy enough to dominate. O-line Coach Foerster needs to pull off a bit of a miracle if he's relying on players like Davis to come in and succeed at Guard.
 
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My biggest fear with Cutler is the boneheaded play. While we are concerned about him playing well in big games and good teams, a big question to me is will he throw a bad pick or two costing us a game against a poor team? This place will melt down if that happens.

Last year, we barely beat the hapless Browns and Rams, just as two examples. SD was a very tight win. If Cutler is at the helm in situations like that, does he cost you a game with an impatient pick or two? Can he play situational football? If he blows games against sub-par teams, you could be looking at 6-10 or 7-9. He has talent around him and does NOT need to play hero ball. Hopefully, our man Gase reigns him in.

I admit that I liked Cutler coming out of Vandy. He's physically very impressive but to me he has been one of the biggest underachievers in football. Let's hope Gase gets him to avoid the big mistake and he's motivated to put a huge positive stamp on his legacy. Look at some of the guys who have flipped the script on the back nine of their careers like a Rich Gannon or Jim Plunkett or others. The light switch comes on.

At his age, he should be very smart out there, but we haven't really seen it yet. I think he's a guy who's confident and knows how physically gifted he is. What he's lacked is decisionmaking, moxie, and savvy. Step one, win games you're supposed to. Step two, go on the road, and beat some good teams. That would be a huge step forward.
 
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In these debates, being accurate has never mattered. Just say something doesn't happen and don't reply to the video evidence.

Or they'll dismiss it as a singular occurrence or outlier even though it's the same amount of evidence they're presenting. Tannehill haters will never admit defeat and simply say "ok you got me, I was wrong on that."
 
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