BUST ALERT
Charles Harris, Missouri
SackSEER Projection: 14.8 Sacks Through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 17.5%
Every year, SackSEER breaks from conventional wisdom on at least one highly-rated edge rusher, and this year that player is definitely Charles Harris. From a SackSEER perspective, it is hard to see what would justify Harris as a first- or second-round pick, as most analysts project. Harris was not unusually productive, nor was there any spike in production near the end of his college career. Harris had nine sacks in 12 games during his junior year. Those are certainly not horrible numbers, but they are not significantly better than numbers posted by Tyus Bowser, Takkarist McKinley, or Jordan Willis.
Harris is undersized at 253 pounds, but he had a combine more consistent with a 280-pound run-stuffer. Harris was below average in every drill that matters to SackSEER, including a 4.82-second 40-yard dash and a 7.47-second 3-cone time. Why is an undersized edge rusher with vanilla college production and poor workout numbers considered a potential first-round pick? One answer is that he has a good reputation for athleticism despite his poor combine performance. The anecdotal evidence of what a great difference between "perceived" and "measured" athleticism means is mixed. Players such as Carlos Dunlap and Jason Pierre-Paul were lauded as athletic "freaks" who put up mostly average to below-average workout numbers, but nonetheless became strong players. On the other hand, Quinton Coples and Da'Quan Bowers, two players who had reputations as "freakish" athletes, posted poor workout numbers and ultimately had little impact on the NFL level.
