I think that sometimes we all get caught up in the hype of palyers. In the NFL Quantity of picks usually works out better than higher picks. The averages of hitting on a player are the same everywhere in the draft. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th round have the most value. If trading our first nets us a later 1st and a late 2nd and we get 2 chances to hit on a great player I'll take that any day.
That is such a pile of poop.
Because the same holds true every year. Everyone always gets hyped up over 2nd and 3rd round prospects. The truth always remains that the best prospects are at the top, and that the middle range extends well past the 2nd and 3rd round.
For example, here is the number of Probowlers by round from 2000 to 2008:
1st: 83
2nd: 33
3rd: 14
4th: 12
5th: 10
6th-7th: 14
And of the 2nd round 14 of those picks were taken between 33 and 40. So that leaves only 19 Pro Bowlers from picks 41-64 of the 2nd round.
So in those drafts there were
97 pro bowlers taken in the top 40 picks, 19 taken between 41 and 64, 14 in the 3rd, 12 in the 4th, and 10 in the 5th.
There isn't much difference between the middle of the 2nd through the 5th round, and there is a great imbalance towards the top of the draft.
IMO its good value to trade up within the top 40, and trade down in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to pick up as many picks in the 4th and 5th rounds as you can. But its not worth it to trade out of those top 40 picks to stockpile on 2nd and 3rd rounders. The caveat being, of course, to avoid the top 5 whenever possible unless there is an elite talent.