Signing both Mike Wallace & Greg Jennings/The Pat Riley effect

[ckparrothead]

1- Vontae Davis was deemed not part of our future and would be a free agent after this year, so they traded him for a future 2nd and 5th, or whatever. That's trading the now for the future.

And it has nothing to do with your Pat Riley Effect theory. Whatsoever.

2- Yes, i do. I think the Miami Dolphins signing Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings would put the league on notice, and I think free agents would look at Miami as much more desirable bc of the reasons listed above, bc we now have exciting weapons, and bc we have a defense that is stout.

Grossly overestimated effect, IMO. Agree to disagree.

3- You're right. Miami has always been an attractive destination for players. But players have known we weren't legit contenders for years now. This would change that.

Wins are the only thing that will change that.

4- I agree in part with this. Your argument has merit. Free agency isn't the answer...i agree with that. But at skill positions, with Ireland's track record in re: skill positions, i much rather pay more for proven guys than draft a WR in the first or second round (a 2nd can still be spent on a Tavon Austin in my scenario anyways). Add in the fact that we'd still have near 20 million in cap space, and there is no good reason not to acquire guys that have done it in the league.

I think people commonly over-estimate the return on investment in free agency because of this persistent but misguided concept of buying "proven" players. Nothing is ever proven where it concerns predicting the future.

Return on investment for free agent receivers surprisingly matches the return on investment for draft picks at the position.

Yeah sometimes you have Vincent Jacksons and Anquan Boldins...successful free agent pickups. But you've also got Robert Meachems, Laurent Robinsons, Brandon Gibsons, etc.

Here is a list of free agent transactions from 2008 to 2012, broken up by success. These do not count trades or cuts. These are expiring contracts.

Wastes of Time & Resources
2008: Sam Aiken from Buffalo to New England
2008: Bernard Berrian from Chicago to Minnesota
2008: Marty Booker from Miami to Chicago
2008: Bryant Johnson from Arizona to San Francisco
2008: Eddie Kennison from Kansas City to St. Louis
2008: Ashley Lelie from San Francisco to Oakland
2008: Brandon Lloyd from Washington to Chicago
2008: Justin McCareins from New York Jets to Tennessee
2008: Jerry Porter from Oakland to Jacksonville
2008: Koren Robinson from Green Bay to Seattle
2008: Donte Stallworth from New England to Cleveland
2008: Javon Walker from Denver to Oakland
2009: Hank Baskett from Philadelphia to Indianapolis
2009: Laveranues Coles from New York Jets to Cincinnati
2009: Mike Furrey from Detroit to Cleveland
2009: Joey Galloway from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh
2009: Torry Holt from St. Louis to Jacksonville
2009: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Cincinnati to Seattle
2009: Bryant Johnson from San Francisco to Detroit
2009: Terrell Owens from Dallas to Buffalo
2009: Kelley Washington from New England to Baltimore
2009: Roydell Williams from Tennessee to Washington
2010: Arnaz Battle from San Francisco to Pittsburgh
2010: Antonio Bryant from Tampa Bay to Cincinnati
2010: Nate Burleson from Seattle to Detroit
2010: Mike Furrey from Cleveland to Washington
2010: Joey Galloway from Pittsburgh to Washington
2010: Jason Hill from San Francisco to Jacksonville
2010: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Seattle to Baltimore
2010: Matt Jones from Jacksonville to Cincinnati
2010: Randy Moss from Minnesota to Tennessee
2010: Antwaan Randle El from Washington to Pittsburgh
2010: Josh Reed from Buffalo to San Diego
2010: Devin Thomas from Carolina to New York Giants
2010: Jerheme Urban from Arizona to Kansas City
2010: Bobby Wade from Kansas City to Washington
2010: Demetrius Williams from Baltimore to Cleveland
2011: Seyi Ajirotutu from San Diego to Carolina
2011: Devin Aromashodu from Chicago to Minnesota
2011: Donnie Avery from St. Louis to Tennessee
2011: Steve Breaston from Arizona to Kansas City
2011: Plaxico Burress from New York Giants to New York Jets
2011: Jericho Cotchery from New York Jets to Pittsburgh Steelers
2011: Craig "Buster" Davis from San Diego to Buffalo
2011: Braylon Edwards from New York Jets to San Francisco
2011: James Hardy from Buffalo to Baltimore
2011: Johnnie Lee Higgins from Oakland to Philadelphia
2011: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Baltimore to Oakland
2011: Michael Jenkins from Atlanta to Minnesota
2011: Bryant Johnson from Detroit to Houston
2011: Sinorice Moss from New York Giants to Philadelphia
2011: Legedu Naanee from San Diego to Carolina
2011: Taylor Price from New England to Jacksonville
2011: Mike Sims-Walker from St. Louis to Jacksonville
2011: Brad Smith from New York Jets to Buffalo
2011: Steve E. Smith from New York Giants to Philadelphia
2011: Brandon Tate from New England to Cincinnati
2011: Roy Williams from Dallas to Chicago
2012: Seyi Ajirotutu from Carolina to San Diego
2012: Plaxico Burress from New York Jets to Pittsburgh
2012: Andre Caldwell from Cincinnati to Denver
2012: Braylon Edwards from San Francisco to Seattle
2012: Braylon Edwards from Seattle to New York Jets
2012: Clyde Gates from Miami to New York Jets
2012: Robert Meachem from New Orleans to San Diego
2012: Carlton Mitchell from Cleveland to Jacksonville
2012: Josh Morgan from San Francisco to Jacksonville
2012: Laurent Robinson from Dallas to Jacksonville
2012: Brian Robiskie from Jacksonville to Detroit
2012: Eddie Royal from Denver to San Diego
2012: Greg Salas from New England to Philadelphia
2012: Dane Sanzenbacher from Chicago to Cincinnati
2012: Chaz Schilens from Oakland to New York Jets
2012: Jordan Shipley from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville
2012: Jerome Simpson from Cincinnati to Minnesota
2012: Steve E. Smith from Philadelphis to St. Louis
2012: Mike Thomas from Jacksonville to Detroit

Mixed Success Relative to Price
2008: Isaac Bruce from St. Louis to San Francisco
2008: Antonio Bryant from Dallas to Tampa Bay
2008: Muhsin Muhammad from Chicago to Carolina
2009: Jabar Gaffney from New England to Denver
2009: Brandon Lloyd from Chicago to Denver
2010: Terrell Owens from Buffalo to Cincinnati
2011: Sidney Rice from Minnesota to Seattle
2012: Danario Alexander from St. Louis to San Diego
2012: Donnie Avery from Tennessee to Indianapolis
2012: Pierre Garcon from Indianapolis to Washington
2012: Trindon Holliday from Houston to Denver
2012: Jacoby Jones from Houston to Baltimore
2012: Brandon Lloyd from St. Louis to New England
2012: Mario Manningham from New York Giants to San Francisco
2012: Brandon Stokley from New York Giants to Denver Broncos

Undeniably Successful Signings
2009: Nate Washington from Pittsburgh to Tennessee
2012: Vincent Jackson from San Diego to Tampa Bay

 

[dcnr226]

And it has nothing to do with your Pat Riley Effect theory. Whatsoever.



Grossly overestimated effect, IMO. Agree to disagree.



Wins are the only thing that will change that.



I think people commonly over-estimate the return on investment in free agency because of this persistent but misguided concept of buying "proven" players. Nothing is ever proven where it concerns predicting the future.

Return on investment for free agent receivers surprisingly matches the return on investment for draft picks at the position.

Yeah sometimes you have Vincent Jacksons and Anquan Boldins...successful free agent pickups. But you've also got Robert Meachems, Laurent Robinsons, Brandon Gibsons, etc.

Here is a list of free agent transactions from 2008 to 2012, broken up by success. These do not count trades or cuts. These are expiring contracts.

Wastes of Time & Resources
2008: Sam Aiken from Buffalo to New England
2008: Bernard Berrian from Chicago to Minnesota
2008: Marty Booker from Miami to Chicago
2008: Bryant Johnson from Arizona to San Francisco
2008: Eddie Kennison from Kansas City to St. Louis
2008: Ashley Lelie from San Francisco to Oakland
2008: Brandon Lloyd from Washington to Chicago
2008: Justin McCareins from New York Jets to Tennessee
2008: Jerry Porter from Oakland to Jacksonville
2008: Koren Robinson from Green Bay to Seattle
2008: Donte Stallworth from New England to Cleveland
2008: Javon Walker from Denver to Oakland
2009: Hank Baskett from Philadelphia to Indianapolis
2009: Laveranues Coles from New York Jets to Cincinnati
2009: Mike Furrey from Detroit to Cleveland
2009: Joey Galloway from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh
2009: Torry Holt from St. Louis to Jacksonville
2009: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Cincinnati to Seattle
2009: Bryant Johnson from San Francisco to Detroit
2009: Terrell Owens from Dallas to Buffalo
2009: Kelley Washington from New England to Baltimore
2009: Roydell Williams from Tennessee to Washington
2010: Arnaz Battle from San Francisco to Pittsburgh
2010: Antonio Bryant from Tampa Bay to Cincinnati
2010: Nate Burleson from Seattle to Detroit
2010: Mike Furrey from Cleveland to Washington
2010: Joey Galloway from Pittsburgh to Washington
2010: Jason Hill from San Francisco to Jacksonville
2010: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Seattle to Baltimore
2010: Matt Jones from Jacksonville to Cincinnati
2010: Randy Moss from Minnesota to Tennessee
2010: Antwaan Randle El from Washington to Pittsburgh
2010: Josh Reed from Buffalo to San Diego
2010: Devin Thomas from Carolina to New York Giants
2010: Jerheme Urban from Arizona to Kansas City
2010: Bobby Wade from Kansas City to Washington
2010: Demetrius Williams from Baltimore to Cleveland
2011: Seyi Ajirotutu from San Diego to Carolina
2011: Devin Aromashodu from Chicago to Minnesota
2011: Donnie Avery from St. Louis to Tennessee
2011: Steve Breaston from Arizona to Kansas City
2011: Plaxico Burress from New York Giants to New York Jets
2011: Jericho Cotchery from New York Jets to Pittsburgh Steelers
2011: Craig "Buster" Davis from San Diego to Buffalo
2011: Braylon Edwards from New York Jets to San Francisco
2011: James Hardy from Buffalo to Baltimore
2011: Johnnie Lee Higgins from Oakland to Philadelphia
2011: T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Baltimore to Oakland
2011: Michael Jenkins from Atlanta to Minnesota
2011: Bryant Johnson from Detroit to Houston
2011: Sinorice Moss from New York Giants to Philadelphia
2011: Legedu Naanee from San Diego to Carolina
2011: Taylor Price from New England to Jacksonville
2011: Mike Sims-Walker from St. Louis to Jacksonville
2011: Brad Smith from New York Jets to Buffalo
2011: Steve E. Smith from New York Giants to Philadelphia
2011: Brandon Tate from New England to Cincinnati
2011: Roy Williams from Dallas to Chicago
2012: Seyi Ajirotutu from Carolina to San Diego
2012: Plaxico Burress from New York Jets to Pittsburgh
2012: Andre Caldwell from Cincinnati to Denver
2012: Braylon Edwards from San Francisco to Seattle
2012: Braylon Edwards from Seattle to New York Jets
2012: Clyde Gates from Miami to New York Jets
2012: Robert Meachem from New Orleans to San Diego
2012: Carlton Mitchell from Cleveland to Jacksonville
2012: Josh Morgan from San Francisco to Jacksonville
2012: Laurent Robinson from Dallas to Jacksonville
2012: Brian Robiskie from Jacksonville to Detroit
2012: Eddie Royal from Denver to San Diego
2012: Greg Salas from New England to Philadelphia
2012: Dane Sanzenbacher from Chicago to Cincinnati
2012: Chaz Schilens from Oakland to New York Jets
2012: Jordan Shipley from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville
2012: Jerome Simpson from Cincinnati to Minnesota
2012: Steve E. Smith from Philadelphis to St. Louis
2012: Mike Thomas from Jacksonville to Detroit

Mixed Success Relative to Price
2008: Isaac Bruce from St. Louis to San Francisco
2008: Antonio Bryant from Dallas to Tampa Bay
2008: Muhsin Muhammad from Chicago to Carolina
2009: Jabar Gaffney from New England to Denver
2009: Brandon Lloyd from Chicago to Denver
2010: Terrell Owens from Buffalo to Cincinnati
2011: Sidney Rice from Minnesota to Seattle
2012: Danario Alexander from St. Louis to San Diego
2012: Donnie Avery from Tennessee to Indianapolis
2012: Pierre Garcon from Indianapolis to Washington
2012: Trindon Holliday from Houston to Denver
2012: Jacoby Jones from Houston to Baltimore
2012: Brandon Lloyd from St. Louis to New England
2012: Mario Manningham from New York Giants to San Francisco
2012: Brandon Stokley from New York Giants to Denver Broncos

Undeniably Successful Signings
2009: Nate Washington from Pittsburgh to Tennessee
2012: Vincent Jackson from San Diego to Tampa Bay

You definitely do your homework, but i don't see anyone on the "waste of time and resources" list that were nearly as good as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings at their respective times.

Regarding your comment that Vontae doesn't fit the analogy... Michael Beasley.

And regarding your comment that "only wins can change that"...I agree. But we aren't coming off a winning season, so the only way to prove to free agents now that we are serious is to spend and acquire high end talent. The league respects the Dolphins defense. Lets get the offense some studs seeing as 1- we can afford to and 2- we can use our draft picks for guys who are less likely to be "misses", like a 6'6" defensive end or a cornerback that was able to shut things down in the SEC. I love what I see from Cordarelle Patterson and Keenan Allen. I just trust Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings to continue their success in the league more than I trust Patterson and Allen to translate to the NFL.

 

[ckparrothead]

You definitely do your homework, but i don't see anyone on the "waste of time and resources" list that were nearly as good as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings at their respective times.

Regarding your comment that Vontae doesn't fit the analogy... Michael Beasley.

And regarding your comment that "only wins can change that"...I agree. But we aren't coming off a winning season, so the only way to prove to free agents now that we are serious is to spend and acquire high end talent. The league respects the Dolphins defense. Lets get the offense some studs seeing as 1- we can afford to and 2- we can use our draft picks for guys who are less likely to be "misses", like a 6'6" defensive end or a cornerback that was able to shut things down in the SEC. I love what I see from Cordarelle Patterson and Keenan Allen. I just trust Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings to continue their success in the league more than I trust Patterson and Allen to translate to the NFL.

You're ignoring the most likely possibility.

There IS NO way for us to achieve the effect you desire. You do it by establishing a pattern of winning, or you don't do it. Period. You've either already got the juice, or you don't. You're not going to get it all of a sudden by paying up for two free agent wide receivers.

Would probably have the exact opposite effect as a matter of fact. Look at Washington. They built a reputation based on free agent activities and not based on their winning record. Did free agents try to go to Washington because of that? You bet. TO GET PAID. They looked at Washington like a broken ATM machine. None of them came even close to offering Washington below-market deals to play there.

 

[dlockz]

There is no parallel to nba . That league is a mess with teams throwing seasons just to get cap space. Definately needs to be fixed. There is no building of teams for most part in nba its all about free agency and some cities have no chance to compete for free agents

 

[nick1]

You guys can debate the theory all day but all I care about is are signing both of them going to help our team? I think so Wallace and Jennings are both very good players who are worth the money. Tannehill will have reliable weapons and we would still have money to resign randy Starks and Clemons then Address corner.

 

[dlockz]

You're ignoring the most likely possibility.

There IS NO way for us to achieve the effect you desire. You do it by establishing a pattern of winning, or you don't do it. Period. You've either already got the juice, or you don't. You're not going to get it all of a sudden by paying up for two free agent wide receivers.

Would probably have the exact opposite effect as a matter of fact. Look at Washington. They built a reputation based on free agent activities and not based on their winning record. Did free agents try to go to Washington because of that? You bet. TO GET PAID. They looked at Washington like a broken ATM machine. None of them came even close to offering Washington below-market deals to play there.

There are few players that might have this affect like a Peyton Manning and its nothing like NBA

 

[miamiron]

Everyone that thinks getting Wallace and Jennings would be "possible" fail to realize the other 31 teams in the NFL.
An example would be New England letting Welker and his $9.5 million contract this past season walk then take that
$9.5 million add to it a few more million and get a Wallace for Welker turnaround.

If Miami was offering $11 million + and New England was offering the same
I'm sorry but I'm going to Foxboro

 

[dcnr226]

You're ignoring the most likely possibility.

There IS NO way for us to achieve the effect you desire. You do it by establishing a pattern of winning, or you don't do it. Period. You've either already got the juice, or you don't. You're not going to get it all of a sudden by paying up for two free agent wide receivers.

Would probably have the exact opposite effect as a matter of fact. Look at Washington. They built a reputation based on free agent activities and not based on their winning record. Did free agents try to go to Washington because of that? You bet. TO GET PAID. They looked at Washington like a broken ATM machine. None of them came even close to offering Washington below-market deals to play there.

I happen to think that both would take slightly less than top dollar to come to Miami. And i think if they do, that we should try and attain their services. You're right in that I don't want my Dolphins to become Washington; you're wrong in the assumption that thats the strategy i'm advocating. 2 WRs that complement each other - solidifying those 2 positions - and with the rest of the money and draft picks, fill holes everywhere else. That's all i'm saying.

It was a pleasure debating this with you. Big fan of your work, btw.

 

[dcnr226]

There is no parallel to nba . That league is a mess with teams throwing seasons just to get cap space. Definately needs to be fixed. There is no building of teams for most part in nba its all about free agency and some cities have no chance to compete for free agents

I'm thankful that i live in a big market in South Florida. I can't imagine the misery of being a Milwaukee Bucks fan. You're absolutely right.

 

[ckparrothead]

There are few players that might have this affect like a Peyton Manning and its nothing like NBA

Peyton Manning is the only free agent that has changed hands in recent memory that could have an effect like this even close to the Heat example.

 

[dlockz]

Peyton Manning is the only free agent that has changed hands in recent memory that could have an effect like this even close to the Heat example.

and even with him it brought no Reggie Wayne or other major guy

 

[ckparrothead]

I happen to think that both would take slightly less than top dollar to come to Miami. And i think if they do, that we should try and attain their services. You're right in that I don't want my Dolphins to become Washington; you're wrong in the assumption that thats the strategy i'm advocating. 2 WRs that complement each other - solidifying those 2 positions - and with the rest of the money and draft picks, fill holes everywhere else. That's all i'm saying.

It was a pleasure debating this with you. Big fan of your work, btw.

Listen, I get the logic...and if you were talking about Peyton Manning I might even agree with it. But we're not. There's no real parallel to that NBA situation in this year's free agency. Hell, it's highly arguable there's never been a parallel to that NBA situation even within the NBA, prior to when it happened, and there hasn't been a parellel since either. It's not just a unique sport, it was a unique situation within that sport.

 

[ckparrothead]

and even with him it brought no Reggie Wayne or other major guy

Nope. Just Brandon Stokley and Jacob Tamme, two guys set to be low-paid anyway.

I think what the argument boils down to here is clearly dcnr226 thinks that Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings make sense as a pair of acquisitions from a football sense. He thinks they complement, that they'll be worth their asking price, etc. There's nothing wrong with that. He might be right. And maybe if Miami did that, and showed they're serious about making plays and paying to win some football games, you'll bring some fans back to the table...bring some genuine excitement back to the Dolphins.

But outside of that, it's not going to affect anything else. Not going to affect free agents.

 

[dlockz]

Nope. Just Brandon Stokley and Jacob Tamme, two guys set to be low-paid anyway.

I think what the argument boils down to here is clearly dcnr226 thinks that Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings make sense as a pair of acquisitions from a football sense. He thinks they complement, that they'll be worth their asking price, etc. There's nothing wrong with that. He might be right. And maybe if Miami did that, and showed they're serious about making plays and paying to win some football games, you'll bring some fans back to the table...bring some genuine excitement back to the Dolphins.

But outside of that, it's not going to affect anything else. Not going to affect free agents.

So true because we have made big moves and spent plenty of money under the ireland regime and thats hasnt made free agents look to us first. People act like we never had money and draft picks under Ireland before. He has wasted the money and draft picks before

 

[Awsi Dooger]

ckparrothead mentioned futures odds in another thread. For reference purposes, when the Heat signed James and Bosh to align with Wade, the Heat's odds to win the NBA championship were immediately cut from 25/1 to below 2/1.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/jul/08/lebron-james-decision/

It was actually a greater change than that. The 25/1 was posted with some knowledge that the Heat might thrive in the free agent market. With Wade alone, it would have been tighter to 75/1.

If the Dolphins sign Jennings and Wallace, I suppose some joints would lower Miami from 50/1 to 40/1. Primarily due to sheer boredom, a determination to lower odds under any excuse, and the tendencies of casino managers to overreact.

Let's see, I'm trying to envision a gathering of Tannehill, Wallace and Jennings onstage, with lights and cameras and pronouncement of forthcoming titles...