2019 Dolphins Qb Please

[The Goat]

One is a super bowl mvp. The other is a guy who has never led his team to the playoffs and as a 23 year old college qb led the number 8 ranked college team to a 7-6 record.

There in no real comparison between the two.

One is a guy who had his best season under a new coach, and he thrived in a specific offense. Then it became apparent that the coach was a combative a-hole and after the coach was fired, he ended up elsewhere. He was put in positions that made success difficult, and guess what? He didn’t succeed. Then, he became a backup and a reclamation project, was put into a position to succeed on a VERY good team that took advantage of his strengths, wasn’t asked to win games by himself and...surprise...he looked awesome!

The other is a guy who was put into positions that made success difficult, and guess what? He didn’t succeed. Then he had his best season under a new coach in a specific offense that took advantage of his strengths, wasn’t asked to win games by himself, and...surprise...he looked awesome! Then it became apparent that his coach was a combative a-hole, and the coach got fired. Now he’s viewed as a reclamation project and a backup who will probably end up elsewhere.

Clearly, there is no comparison.

 

[superphin]

Tannehill is needs to stay, if you're hell bent on tanking, i know he's owed 27 millions but that's peanuts. Get that O-line functioning, Draft a QB in 3rd round that you're really committed to playing this year or next. Screw waiting for Tua, fans don't want to watch crap product on the field at the prices of those tickets because they are more than one player away. Tannehill gets hurt because the O-line was crap last season and has been for the last 5 seasons and you think it's all going to get better with another QB, I repect everything that is said on this board but some of you guys really need to watch the games and analyze what is real, Tannehill's completion rate was up last season his interceptions (9) wasn't terrible. So you bring in a Rookie who is going to be buried on that field because you don't address what make a team strong which is protecting any QB with a great O-line.

How is $27 million peanuts? His cap number next year is the 6th highest for all QB' in the NFL and accounts for 13.65% of our cap. Only the secondary and WR's account for a bigger % of our cap.

Fans don't want to watch crap product? We've been watching a crap product the last 18 years, whether we go 7-9 with Tannehill or 3-13 with some scrub it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. In the last 7 years everything piece has changed except 1, it's time to let that piece go.

Tannehill got hurt due the accumulation of punishment over the years, he is now injury prone and has regressed because of it. His 9 INT's came in 11 games played, 9 int's in 11 games is a lot. His int % last year was 3.3% which was 7th highest in the NFL last year of the 6 QB's who had a higher int% 3 were rookies. His completion % was down from 67.1% in 2016 to 64.2% in 2018 so not sure what you're looking at.

You bring a rookie who hasn't been sacked 248 times and isn't broken from years of abuse. You bring a rookie who maybe has better pocket presence than the current QB. You bring a rookie who maybe has a bit of Russel Wilson in him and can excel or at least be adequate when the oline falters. You bring a rookie because he has a higher probability of playing 16 games.

 

[FINOMINAL]

If your knock on Foles is that he was only successful (and super bowl MVP is extraordinary success) in the system they had for him, how do you justify taking Murray, who you will have to design your offense around in an extreme way? Nick Foles at 6’6” is an ideal prototypical quarterback that can be fit into your system a lot easier than a high risk miniature scat quarterback.

 

[BlueFin]

Are they sayin that there’s only one or two QB’s worth drafting at #13 or in the entire draft? If they’re talking about #13, then I agree.

I think there are 3... but that’s not the point... good scouting finds an Aaron Rodgers at 21...a Drew Brees in round 2... a Russell Wilson in round 3... a Tom Brady in round 5 or 6?

What were QB guru’s saying about those QB’s before those drafts?... not worth drafting high?... not included in draftsble QB’s for that draft?

 

[BlueFin]

Maybe, but not every draft has a wealth of QB talent. Let's consider the 2011 draft. Many people thought there was only 1 good prospect there, Cam Newton, and he went #1 overall, but that didn't stop teams from picking QB's. Here's a rundown of all the QB's drafted in 2011.

First Round:
1 - Cam Newton - Carolina Panthers
8 - Jake Locker - Tennessee Titans
10 - Blaine Gabbert - Jacksonville Jaguars
12 - Christian Ponder - Minnesota Vikings

Second Round:
35 - Andy Dalton - Cincinnati Bengals
36 - Colin Kaepernick - San Francisco 49'ers

Third Round:
74 - Ryan Mallet - New England Patriots

Fourth Round:
None

Fifth Round:
135 - Ricky Stanzi - KC Chiefs
152 - TJ Yates - Houston Texans
160 - Nathan Enderle - Chicago Bears

Sixth Round:
180 - Tyrod Taylor - Baltimore Ravens

Seventh Round:
208 - Greg McElroy - NY Jets

I would argue that the only QB who truly benefitted the team that drafted him was Cam Newton, and he went #1 overall. You could make a case for Andy Dalton, but I've never been impressed with him, so I'll leave that one for people to decide for themselves. You could make the case for Colin Kaepernick, but his combined yardage (pass + run) totals consisted of 32; 2,229; 3,721; 4,008; 1,871; and 2,709 in his 6 seasons in San Francisco. None of the other guys had any real success with the teams that drafted them. One could say that one or two may have had success with their second team, but drafting is about benefitting the team that drafts you. This isn't the only draft where that's the case, but it's just one that is recent enough to remember while having given them ample time to make a decision, and enough QB's taken in round 1 and 2 to make it a reasonable comparison.

To me, none of the QB prospects in this draft are good fits for us if we are going to run that Patriots offense … it's ill-suited for all of them. But, I do see 1 QB prospect in this draft--Kyler Murray--who has potential to be a good NFL QB in the right system if everything works out (no baseball distraction, remains healthy, etc.).

You’ll never hit on the Rodgers, Brees or Wilson’s if you don’t take a shot!

 

[The Goat]

If your knock on Foles is that he was only successful (and super bowl MVP is extraordinary success) in the system they had for him, how do you justify taking Murray, who you will have to design your offense around in an extreme way? Nick Foles at 6’6” is an ideal prototypical quarterback that can be fit into your system a lot easier than a high risk miniature scat quarterback.

You mean other than or including the massive salary difference?

Not sure whom you’re asking about this, but i really don’t think a team will have to design its offense around Murray. It’s not like he hasn’t worked from a pocket, or that he’s inaccurate.

Here are the things that might concern someone about Murray that *I* have seen as an amateur evaluator:

1) His height/weight. Obviously the big one. But this is what baffles me about this entire discussion: There are obvious differences from college to pro; speed being one of the biggest. You know what DOESN’T change all that much? Size. I’ve heard the whole “Kyler Murray won’t be able to see over an NFL Offensive Line” bit way too much, like Oklahoma had jockeys playing on the OL. The average height of the Oklahoma OL was 6’5”.

2) Working through his progressions. Riley’s offense is fantastic at scheming people open, and Murray usually didn’t have to go beyond his second read. I haven’t seen that he CAN’T do this; he simply hasn’t had to.

3) Murray almost always works from the shotgun in a spread offense. This, I get, and I think that adjustment WILL take time. But it’s certainly an adjustment that can be done.

 

[BlueFin]

The problem is for every Russell Wilson, there are 20 Garrett Graysons. And the reason guys like Wilson and Brady are lower round picks maens 32 teams didn't see them as a higher pick . . . two or thee times. There is no better indicator of how subjective evaluations are than mid/low round picks playing very well in the pros. But, consider your example. Christian, Ponder, and Gabbert went ahead of Dalton. When EVERY team misses on a guy (or guys), the problem isn't the evaluator - it's the inherent messiness of the process.

In the case of Flores and the '19 draft, it will be even more difficult. What Flores will emphasize - quick mental ability - has no evaluation criteria like arm strength. No metric. No stop watch. Yes, teams can look at college tape, but every fan knows that has little apparent correlation with mental talent in the pros.

Yes, I'm all in on a QB at a reasonable price, but fans can't overlook two major unknowns.
1) Does Flores even have an interest in a '19 QB, and if so, with how much urgency?
2) How does any FO/HC identify a QB with the mental aptitude Flores' system apparently requires. If he sees Murray as checking all the athletic boxes, but not having the mental aptitude, what does he do?

Flores is not the guy who makes the pick... and it’s not just late round guys.... it’s guys that slip into the latter half of the first or 2nd.... guys like Rodgers and Brees....you never know and obviously the scouts miss superstars at times as well.

This is on Grier... he has to find the QB.

If he passes on this draft and a star gets by him that’s not good.... it’s even worse if he waits till 2020 and we’re not in a good position to get one then either.

Now you’ve wasted two years.

 

[Digital]

You’ll never hit on the Rodgers, Brees or Wilson’s if you don’t take a shot!

Rodgers was a different case. He was believed to be one of the top two prospects in the entire draft, just like Dan Marino. And, like Marino, he slid … and once that slid went on a while, every GM got scared that there was something very wrong with him that they didn't know or had not verified … so that slid went a long way. In Marino's case it was a late rumor of drugs, and I'm not sure what it was in Rodgers' case, but everyone remembers the pictures of that community college transfer Cal Berkely kid with the facial hair stunned as he endured bing the last guy left in the green room on draft day and continued his unexpected tumble. We were right to pull the trigger on Marino, and Green Bay was right to pull the trigger on Rodgers. Those type of shots I'm completely on board with taking. But like I said … if you believe in a guy, then you're willing to take him in the 1st round … and that's what both Green Bay and Miami did.

Brees was a different story. He was drafted, deemed not good enough, then replaced with Philip Rivers … and let go. Lots of teams screwed that one up, including the Dolphins. But, under the guidance of Sean Payton, he became a HoF QB, and every team in the NFL regretted not adding him. That's not taking a shot in the draft … that's just the entire NFL being dumb by not recognizing his talent … except Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints.

Russell Wilson is a good comparison. Here is a guy who was very productive, but had a baseball deal out there. Teams were scared off by his size during a time when literally the only good QB's who were tall were Drew Brees and then you had to go back to Doug Flutie to find another one … it's a copycat league, and that's not a good track record. But, Wilson was replaced at NC State, and was so committed to football that he transferred to Wisconsin to play his senior year and prove to the NFL that he was fully invested in football. Still, the size thing scared off most teams.

Fast forward to today, when Kyler Murray has many of those same issues. But today smaller QB's have had success, paving the way and easing teams' concern with his size. He has said he's going to play football, but that's not as big of a commitment as Russell Wilson made transferring and just to play football his senior season. Still, I believe Murray not only goes in the 1st round, but I've been saying since before he declared that he'll be a top 10 pick if he commits to football. That's not taking a shot … that's investing the franchise.

I don't see any of those three guys as guys where teams took a shot. Brady, sure, that's a one-off in my mind, but it definitely was taking a shot, because they had Drew Bledsoe at the time and it was a 6th round pick. But I don't see many of those.

 

[Phishstix]

I think there are 3... but that’s not the point... good scouting finds an Aaron Rodgers at 21...a Drew Brees in round 2... a Russell Wilson in round 3... a Tom Brady in round 5 or 6?

What were QB guru’s saying about those QB’s before those drafts?... not worth drafting high?... not included in draftsble QB’s for that draft?

Wilson & Brady were great scouting finds, but Brees & Rodgers both slid. Both were considered the #2 QBs in their respective drafts, but Brees' height was a concern of course, and Rodgers got a "robotic/mechanical" label (although he had the same draft grade as Rivers the year before). We even play into this- Speilman considered Brees in '01 but he didn't think Brees would be a big upgrade over Fiedler and Wanny wanted Josh Huepel later. And of course Rodgers was in the mix for our pick in '05. Once we didn't take him at #2 (great call, Saban) and the Bucs didn't take him at #5 (great call, Gruden), everyone from #6 down either had or felt like they had a solid QB. It wasn't as much good scouting as those guys fell into the respective laps of SD & GB.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Flores is not the guy who makes the pick... and it’s not just late round guys.... it’s guys that slip into the latter half of the first or 2nd.... guys like Rodgers and Brees....you never know and obviously the scouts miss superstars at times as well.

This is on Grier... he has to find the QB.

If he passes on this draft and a star gets by him that’s not good.... it’s even worse if he waits till 2020 and we’re not in a good position to get one then either.

Now you’ve wasted two years.

JMHO, but Flores and staff ARE the guys who greatly influence Grier's picks. He won't draft anyone unless he has significant agreement.

 

[39wildman]

Wilson & Brady were great scouting finds, but Brees & Rodgers both slid. Both were considered the #2 QBs in their respective drafts, but Brees' height was a concern of course, and Rodgers got a "robotic/mechanical" label (although he had the same draft grade as Rivers the year before). We even play into this- Speilman considered Brees in '01 but he didn't think Brees would be a big upgrade over Fiedler and Wanny wanted Josh Huepel later. And of course Rodgers was in the mix for our pick in '05. Once we didn't take him at #2 (great call, Saban) and the Bucs didn't take him at #5 (great call, Gruden), everyone from #6 down either had or felt like they had a solid QB. It wasn't as much good scouting as those guys fell into the respective laps of SD & GB.

SD is team that draft well. there team have lot talents.

 

[BlueFin]

Wilson & Brady were great scouting finds, but Brees & Rodgers both slid. Both were considered the #2 QBs in their respective drafts, but Brees' height was a concern of course, and Rodgers got a "robotic/mechanical" label (although he had the same draft grade as Rivers the year before). We even play into this- Speilman considered Brees in '01 but he didn't think Brees would be a big upgrade over Fiedler and Wanny wanted Josh Huepel later. And of course Rodgers was in the mix for our pick in '05. Once we didn't take him at #2 (great call, Saban) and the Bucs didn't take him at #5 (great call, Gruden), everyone from #6 down either had or felt like they had a solid QB. It wasn't as much good scouting as those guys fell into the respective laps of SD & GB.

No... I was there... I remember well... both Brees and Rogers had major doubters that didn’t think they were franchise QB’s... not top ten talent.

The point is....scouts don't Know everything and they miss sometimes.

The point is... just because everybody is spouting how bad this QB class is... there is a reasonable chance they are missing on a QB... maybe two.

We can’t be sure we’ll like or even be in position to get one next year.... then what?...Wait 3 drafts?

No...Ron Wolf philosophy...scout them and take a shot on one every year.

 

[BlueFin]

Rodgers was a different case. He was believed to be one of the top two prospects in the entire draft, just like Dan Marino. And, like Marino, he slid … and once that slid went on a while, every GM got scared that there was something very wrong with him that they didn't know or had not verified … so that slid went a long way. In Marino's case it was a late rumor of drugs, and I'm not sure what it was in Rodgers' case, but everyone remembers the pictures of that community college transfer Cal Berkely kid with the facial hair stunned as he endured bing the last guy left in the green room on draft day and continued his unexpected tumble. We were right to pull the trigger on Marino, and Green Bay was right to pull the trigger on Rodgers. Those type of shots I'm completely on board with taking. But like I said … if you believe in a guy, then you're willing to take him in the 1st round … and that's what both Green Bay and Miami did.

Brees was a different story. He was drafted, deemed not good enough, then replaced with Philip Rivers … and let go. Lots of teams screwed that one up, including the Dolphins. But, under the guidance of Sean Payton, he became a HoF QB, and every team in the NFL regretted not adding him. That's not taking a shot in the draft … that's just the entire NFL being dumb by not recognizing his talent … except Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints.

Russell Wilson is a good comparison. Here is a guy who was very productive, but had a baseball deal out there. Teams were scared off by his size during a time when literally the only good QB's who were tall were Drew Brees and then you had to go back to Doug Flutie to find another one … it's a copycat league, and that's not a good track record. But, Wilson was replaced at NC State, and was so committed to football that he transferred to Wisconsin to play his senior year and prove to the NFL that he was fully invested in football. Still, the size thing scared off most teams.

Fast forward to today, when Kyler Murray has many of those same issues. But today smaller QB's have had success, paving the way and easing teams' concern with his size. He has said he's going to play football, but that's not as big of a commitment as Russell Wilson made transferring and just to play football his senior season. Still, I believe Murray not only goes in the 1st round, but I've been saying since before he declared that he'll be a top 10 pick if he commits to football. That's not taking a shot … that's investing the franchise.

I don't see any of those three guys as guys where teams took a shot. Brady, sure, that's a one-off in my mind, but it definitely was taking a shot, because they had Drew Bledsoe at the time and it was a 6th round pick. But I don't see many of those.

No...Rodgers was not a considered an elite prospect...I was one of a few on here upset at the time we didn’t draft him....Dolphin nation on here was more upset at the time when we passed on Brady Quinn.

If Rodgers was viewed as elite... he never gets to 21.

 

[Rick Cartman]

I think there are 3... but that’s not the point... good scouting finds an Aaron Rodgers at 21...a Drew Brees in round 2... a Russell Wilson in round 3... a Tom Brady in round 5 or 6?

What were QB guru’s saying about those QB’s before those drafts?... not worth drafting high?... not included in draftsble QB’s for that draft?

I think a story got released a few months ago that many people within the Dolphins organization were pounding the table for Brees.

The Stache had other plans.

 

[Phishstix]

No... I was there... I remember well... both Brees and Rogers had major doubters that didn’t think they were franchise QB’s... not top ten talent.

The point is....scouts don't Know everything and they miss sometimes.

The point is... just because everybody is spouting how bad this QB class is... there is a reasonable chance they are missing on a QB... maybe two.

We can’t be sure we’ll like or even be in position to get one next year.... then what?...Wait 3 drafts?

No...Ron Wolf philosophy...scout them and take a shot on one every year.

Bree’s & Rodgers were still considered 1st round talents, it wasn’t like GB/SD took them on Day 2. Few thought they’d be HOF’ers, but it’s was widely believed that both could be solid starters, as players that get drafted in the top 33 picks are expected to be. But yea, there’s nothing wrong w/ the Wolf philosophy, as there might be a gem scouts missed on, but I don’t think Brees & Rodgers fit that profile.