Rodgers was a different case. He was believed to be one of the top two prospects in the entire draft, just like Dan Marino. And, like Marino, he slid … and once that slid went on a while, every GM got scared that there was something very wrong with him that they didn't know or had not verified … so that slid went a long way. In Marino's case it was a late rumor of drugs, and I'm not sure what it was in Rodgers' case, but everyone remembers the pictures of that community college transfer Cal Berkely kid with the facial hair stunned as he endured bing the last guy left in the green room on draft day and continued his unexpected tumble. We were right to pull the trigger on Marino, and Green Bay was right to pull the trigger on Rodgers. Those type of shots I'm completely on board with taking. But like I said … if you believe in a guy, then you're willing to take him in the 1st round … and that's what both Green Bay and Miami did.
Brees was a different story. He was drafted, deemed not good enough, then replaced with Philip Rivers … and let go. Lots of teams screwed that one up, including the Dolphins. But, under the guidance of Sean Payton, he became a HoF QB, and every team in the NFL regretted not adding him. That's not taking a shot in the draft … that's just the entire NFL being dumb by not recognizing his talent … except Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints.
Russell Wilson is a good comparison. Here is a guy who was very productive, but had a baseball deal out there. Teams were scared off by his size during a time when literally the only good QB's who were tall were Drew Brees and then you had to go back to Doug Flutie to find another one … it's a copycat league, and that's not a good track record. But, Wilson was replaced at NC State, and was so committed to football that he transferred to Wisconsin to play his senior year and prove to the NFL that he was fully invested in football. Still, the size thing scared off most teams.
Fast forward to today, when Kyler Murray has many of those same issues. But today smaller QB's have had success, paving the way and easing teams' concern with his size. He has said he's going to play football, but that's not as big of a commitment as Russell Wilson made transferring and just to play football his senior season. Still, I believe Murray not only goes in the 1st round, but I've been saying since before he declared that he'll be a top 10 pick if he commits to football. That's not taking a shot … that's investing the franchise.
I don't see any of those three guys as guys where teams took a shot. Brady, sure, that's a one-off in my mind, but it definitely was taking a shot, because they had Drew Bledsoe at the time and it was a 6th round pick. But I don't see many of those.