It's interesting but I do find myself zigging where others zag on Jahmyr Gibbs.
I see a back that I like...but isn't going to stand out at the next level.
I think every single run has an associated amount of expected yardage that a running back can get just by executing, and it's based on the blocking, the defense that is called (crowded box, overloaded side, etc.), the execution of the run fits, and then the speed of the ball carrier which kind of changes the potentials for the play. Jahmyr Gibbs has really really good speed so it sort of increases his expected yardage on a lot of runs and that's a good thing.
But outside of that I'm not seeing a guy who consistently takes more than the play gave him. I'm just not. There are highlights, for sure. But the frequency and consistency are not there. And that's really concerning to me for a 5'9" & 199 lbs. running back because those guys need to be top notch elusive in order to be consistent standouts in the NFL. They're not being helped by their lack of size and heft.
Can't help it, that's what I see. And I think there are a plethora of analytics that paint the same picture. Good, not great, and it makes me think that at the end of the day you're getting a player that you can find a dozen of in free agency and pay them maybe like $2-3 million per year. Miami has two of those in Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. And Mostert would qualify as well above that level if he weren't turning 31 years old next week.
As for the Alvin Kamara comparisons, I do actually see why he would remind you a bit of Alvin, but I think when you step back and see the forest for the trees you start to question how you can legitimately compare a 5'9" & 199 lbs. back who was 79th percentile in Elusiveness to a 5'10" & 214 lbs. back who was 97th percentile in Elusiveness.
Elusiveness btw is a simple calculation of broken tackles per attempt multiplied by yards after contact per attempt.