As it stands right now, who would you like to see Miami draft Rounds 1-3

[jim1]

The more I read about the dynamic between the coaching staff, particularly Brian Flores (and it's HIS show, by all indications), and the QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, the more comfortable I am that they're going to avoid Justin Herbert.

Interesting, I'd have no problem with going into next year with Fitzpatrick/Rosen. As per a succession plan, Jake Fromm has been getting bashed of late but I still see quality there, if we picked him up later in the 1st or in the 2nd rd I'd be fine with that. As to Herbert, I see a lot of Josh Allen there, the size and great arm strength, but also the mobility to a certain extent. Herbert is a smart guy, would be nice to see some fire in him that Josh Allen shows occasionally. That being said I'm still a fan, he's got some top notch tools to work with. Fitzpatrick isn't the problem and I'd think he's a relatively low mileage 37 yrs old. We need OL badly, we need OT desperately and we need a stud or at least a very good RB. Got to protect the QB and got to have a running game to compete.

 

[ChrisEAS]

i liked Fromm for the longest time, but the LSU game scared me off lol.

Herbert, I agree with CK about the leadership qualities.

Tua being injured. Looks like we would target a Love or Eason in the mid rounds.

 

[Dolphinator530]

i liked Fromm for the longest time, but the LSU game scared me off lol.

Herbert, I agree with CK about the leadership qualities.

Tua being injured. Looks like we would target a Love or Eason in the mid rounds.

Fromm didn’t ply great vs LSU but his receivers dropped a large number of passes including the one to open the game that would have been like a 50 yard gain.

Doubt they would have won but his numbers were hurt a lot by those drops. He did seem to have a very poor stretch to end the year and was far to dependent on Cager and other teams just went man to man and no receiver won.

 

[NBP81]

Im not done with the model yet, not even close but I will say this: If you dont have a QB and you're in the top 5, passing on a QB is pure idiocy...

The following chart illustrates your odds of getting elite players throughout the draft. There are multiple lines because its a bayesian logistic model and we are accountig for uncertainty. In other words, its a distribution of regression lines. The QBs one is more sparse simply because the sample size is much smaller than all other players combined.


I mean this is the most important position in football by a mile, and your odds of hitting on one are already small as it is, if you're picking at 3 and you dont have a QB, just do it...

hell lets zoom in a little to see just how very god damn fast your odds are shrinking by the pick...



This is a hell of a steep curve to be messing with... Just pick a QB...

 

[ChrisEAS]

based off the NFL draft this year, and based off how we wont be high enough to get Lawrence next year, do you think its better idea to wait until Patrick Mahomes is an FA in a few years, and sign him to a big contract? Instead of getting a rookie QB and he turns into a bust

 

[mrbunglez]

I think Fromm goes back to school.

 

[ckparrothead]

based off the NFL draft this year, and based off how we wont be high enough to get Lawrence next year, do you think its better idea to wait until Patrick Mahomes is an FA in a few years, and sign him to a big contract? Instead of getting a rookie QB and he turns into a bust

You don't hold a candle for Patrick Mahomes because the odds of him leaving Kansas City are astronomically small. Teams don't allow QBs like him to escape. They pay up.

 

[Namor]

based off the NFL draft this year, and based off how we wont be high enough to get Lawrence next year, do you think its better idea to wait until Patrick Mahomes is an FA in a few years, and sign him to a big contract? Instead of getting a rookie QB and he turns into a bust

I'm sure he will be easy to pry away from K.C:evilmod

 

[NBP81]

You don't hold a candle for Patrick Mahomes because the odds of him leaving Kansas City are astronomically small. Teams don't allow QBs like him to escape. They pay up.

And even then, if you have a team ready for a superbowl run you wont be able to afford him, and if you dont, you should just try and hit on a 5 year rookie contract instead... IMO

 

[A1.]

Keep something in mind about free agency.

It's basically like asking a girl out on a date. Some will say Yes. Many will say No. You can increase your odds by offering to pay for a date at a fancy restaurant. And yet, many will still say No. Your odds increase if you're a good looker.

The Miami Dolphins are not a good looker.

So when I see an off season plan put together that has a bunch of whales next to one another like Matt Judon, Joe Thuney, Chris Jones, and Byron Jones, that's the first thing I think of, that you'll be lucky if a single one of those say Yes, let alone all four.

let’s not pretend that money isn’t king

 

[Crump]

You're trying to talk yourself into Miami being able to pull in all the free agents they desire and I'm telling you that's just not going to be the reality.

Not exactly and like u said we prob arent looking for the biggest prettiest names. Clowney already showed it's not about money, but some players who know they are getting a huge payday regardless might not carr about jumping from 18 mil to 20 mil. A mid tier guy that's fits our scheme that we can outbid another team 7 mil to 5 mil prob really desires that extra insurance, not to mention he doesnt have the side endorsements Clowney does.

I dont think we can land the top 3 fan's without being stupid irresponsible, because t Baum could do that. I'm just saying we should be able to land the reasonable targets we want easily

 

[jim1]

Im not done with the model yet, not even close but I will say this: If you dont have a QB and you're in the top 5, passing on a QB is pure idiocy...

The following chart illustrates your odds of getting elite players throughout the draft. There are multiple lines because its a bayesian logistic model and we are accountig for uncertainty. In other words, its a distribution of regression lines. The QBs one is more sparse simply because the sample size is much smaller than all other players combined.
View attachment 34940

I mean this is the most important position in football by a mile, and your odds of hitting on one are already small as it is, if you're picking at 3 and you dont have a QB, just do it...

hell lets zoom in a little to see just how very god damn fast your odds are shrinking by the pick...

View attachment 34942

This is a hell of a steep curve to be messing with... Just pick a QB...

Nice work, thanks. Roll the bones, hope for greatness, take the shot on big talent- again, if Herbert turns out to be as good as Josh Allen I'll take that as a win if we draft him- there was plenty of doubt out there as per Allen if you turn the clock back a year.

 

[dolfan91]

If Miami isn't able to sign F/A's to help improve the team in 2020, there's a good chance Miami will be picking in the top 5-7 picks, once again in 2021. I guess that makes it easier to accept, if they choose to select a premier QB prospect that could be better than the QB, Miami is apparently selecting in the top 5 of the 2020 draft. I don't think any of the QB's in 2020 are better than the top 3 in 2021.

 

[dha]

My dream scenario could be possible, but little bit far from reality.
1a. Young, if we get to second pick.
1b. Tua, just because of the unknown condition and wishing he returns in great shape.
After that, I mind little less.

 

[Feverdream]

Let me add this...

The type of person that jumps at a 52 million dollar offer when there are 50 million dollar offers on the table... are whores.

Maybe not all of them... but these are not the guys that you want.