Baldinger: Tannehill as a franchise QB is a pipe dream

[ryan0398]

No, picking a quarterback in round one doesn't guarantee that they will be a franchise quarterback. However, it certainly takes more than one season to determine if they are a bust or not. Heck, the fact that Dolphins fans are even discussing moving away from Tannehill and drafting a new QB in the 1st round before even one training camp practice shows how impatient Dolphins fans are. The fact is that Tannehill might not play much at all this season. Maybe he gets a few starts at the end of the season, but unless he starts day one you can't make a final determination whether he will be a success in the NFL or not. Even a full 16 game rookie season is not enough. There is no way to make a decision on Tannehill's long term future based on one season.

Also, what guarantee that Barkley is a "bonafide franchise QB"? How do you know that for sure? You don't, Tannehill may turn out to be the better pro. There is no guarantee that Andrew Luck as the #1 pick is going to work out for the Colts. Remember guys like Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell? You don't throw away one unproven commodity to pick another. Like I said unless the front office and coaching staff are completely gutted absolutely no chance, nada, zilch that Barkley would be picked by the Dolphins if he is on the board. Miami would either take the best player(not a QB) on their draft board or trade the pick to a QB needy team for multiple first round picks like the Rams did this year. Sam Bradford has already been in the league two years and hasn't exactly proven himself, but the Rams are continuing to build around him and allowing him to develop even though RGIII was staring them in the face. You want to get a franchise QB and instill confidence in your player and organization? You don't undermine your first round QB by taking another first round QB just a year later, before allowing him the time to prove himself. You either got it or you don't as a rookie? Matthew Stafford sucked his rookie season and was invisible his second season. His third season he became a star in the NFL and is now one of the top quarterbacks in the game.

Do you know the last time a team took a quaterback in the first round of the regular draft in back to back years? You would have to go all the way back to 1982 and 1983. That was a unique situation though because the quarterback taken in 1982 had been suspended for the 83' season. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1962. As you can see, what you are suggesting never really happens, and it won't next year.

The likely hood of Miami drafting another first round qb is slim to none. I'll give you that but you can't compare the Colts and Andrew Luck to what Miami has. Lets face it we drafted a qb with a lot of talent. Raw, undeveloped talent. We selected the 3rd best qb in the draft, not because we wanted to but because thats who fell to us. Andrew Luck was widely considered the biggest can't miss qb in some time. He will have a longer rope than RT. I'm rooting for RT as much as anyone but it doesn't take more than a year to see if your going to get a splash in the pan. Excellence shows often and early. With a full training camp and a full season of work they will know what the future looks like.

 

[Tunaphish429]

If I am not mistaken, Baldinger is the guy who tried to belittle CK on NFLN. That told me all I need to know about him. You don't treat a guest in the manner he came across. Guy is a moron.

That was not Baldinger..It was just one of the regular anchors..I give Ck props for being on...Really cool...but to me he seemed unprepared and kept quoting the internet as a source if I am not mistaken..

 

[Fin Thirteen]

Give me Tannehill over Barkley any day.

 

[Ryan1973]

Barkley will go 1 overall in all likely hood, wether the top team needs a qb or someone gives up two drafts for him. I don't want the dolphins doing that. trading your whol draft for one, unproven player is not a good move. The only recent prospect I can see doing that for is Andrew Luck. The last one was peyton manning.

How do you know that Barkley isn't as good of a prospect as Luck?

 

[Ryan1973]

The likely hood of Miami drafting another first round qb is slim to none. I'll give you that but you can't compare the Colts and Andrew Luck to what Miami has. Lets face it we drafted a qb with a lot of talent. Raw, undeveloped talent. We selected the 3rd best qb in the draft, not because we wanted to but because thats who fell to us. Andrew Luck was widely considered the biggest can't miss qb in some time. He will have a longer rope than RT. I'm rooting for RT as much as anyone but it doesn't take more than a year to see if your going to get a splash in the pan. Excellence shows often and early. With a full training camp and a full season of work they will know what the future looks like.

Exactly! Lets face it, Tannehill was a reach at #8. Luck and Griffin were drafted where they were supposed to go. If Barkley came out this year and the Dolphins had a chance to draft him or Tannehill, I am sure it would have been a no brainer and they would have taken Barkley. He is rated a lot higher than Tannehill.

 

[Ryan1973]

I am concerned as well if Tanny is the guy, but few people expected much of Brady or Favre either. And Leaf was supposed to be a sure thing so who knows.

But Brady was drafted in the 6th round and I think Favre was drafted in the lower half of round 1 or round 2. That is a big difference from being drafted #8 overall. Those guys didn't have the expectations coming in that follows a top 10 pick.

 

[thefranchisedef]

Lmfao

 

[Wildbill3]

To back up those that are against Barkley next season...

Keep in mind that these are just numbers, but also keep in mind that tannehill hasn't had a lot of experience as a QB either. (From the VIP forum)

While I'm normally only going to post my Math to the Drafts on Friday and I've still got my comparison of Fleener and Allen coming next Friday - I wanted to share a little tidbit from my previous QB analysis.

With all the distress over the Dolphin's QB situation and some calls for "blowing for Barkley" to get the 1st overall pick, I wanted to break down a small amount of stats for everyone. I started doing these QB analyses during the season and actually first did Matt Barkley and Landry Jones because I was sure they would both come out for the NFL this year. In that vein, I want to give you Barkley's stats against the other QB prospects I did in the previous post.

Overall Comp%
	Griffin	Luck	Tannehill	Weeden	Barkley
Total	Comp%	Comp%	Comp%	Comp%	Comp%
Screen	85.71	88.89	93.55	90.48	90.91
1-5 Yards	75.00	85.00	64.29	75.56	68.33
6-10 Yards	60.00	70.83	57.14	64.71	63.16
11-20 Yards	68.00	46.15	55.88	55.56	55.26
20 + Yards	60.00	41.67	31.82	52.38	37.14
Total	69.17	68.47	62.00	69.52	65.93

%TotalThrows	Griffin	Luck	Tannehill	Weeden	Barkley
	%Throws	%Throws	%Throws	%Throws	%Throws
Screen	15.79	8.11	20.67	22.46	24.34
1-5 Yards	24.06	36.04	18.67	24.06	26.55
6-10 Yards	22.56	21.62	23.33	18.18	16.81
11-20 Yards	18.80	23.42	22.67	24.06	16.81
20 + Yards	18.80	10.81	14.67	11.23	15.49

These are how often each QB threw to each zone, thus Weeden threw screens 22.46% of the time and Luck threw 1-5 yards 36% of the time

Finally, here are the QBs adjusted for drops, so this would be what would happen if they did not drop any passes:

Perfect Receiver	(PRR)
	Griffin	Luck	Tannehill	Weeden	Barkley
	Comp%	Comp%	Comp%	Comp%	Comp%
Screen	90.00	88.89	100.00	92.68	94.34
1-5 Yards	77.42	91.89	69.23	85.00	70.69
6-10 Yards	62.07	70.83	66.67	73.33	70.59
11-20 Yards	80.95	50.00	61.29	59.52	61.76
20 + Yards	62.50	50.00	33.33	57.89	40.63
Total	73.60	73.08	67.88	75.58	70.62

Here are my thoughts on Barkley:

• While not as ridiculous as Andrew Luck in the completion % in the 1-5 and 6-10 range, he's very solid in how often he completes the ball at the short depths
• USC and Lane Kiffin's offense is very much predicated on screens. Interestingly, about 85% of the time, when Barkley lines up in shotgun, he's going throw a screen - that's why we see Barkley with 24.34% of his total throws as screens
• He has the second lowest completion percentage at the deep range ahead of Tannehill
• Over 50% of his passes are screens or 1-5 yards, this is definitely a product of USC's offense. However, after those short ranges - he distributes the ball very justly over the different ranges

As far as these stats in particular go, I see a huge comparison to Ryan Tannehill. Now I think Barkley is much more polished than Tannehill, but both play in similar west coast offenses that emphasize screens and short passes. Their completion percentages after we adjust for drops are eerily similar. 1-5 and 11-20 are almost identical and the others are just barely off.

If you're on the ledge and you're thinking that you just might want to see the Dolphins get the first overall pick, take a look at these stats. Maybe they'll change your mind, maybe they'll affirm your wishful thinking, or maybe they just won't do anything for you. Happy QB hunting.

 

[Nublar7]

The likely hood of Miami drafting another first round qb is slim to none. I'll give you that but you can't compare the Colts and Andrew Luck to what Miami has. Lets face it we drafted a qb with a lot of talent. Raw, undeveloped talent. We selected the 3rd best qb in the draft, not because we wanted to but because thats who fell to us. Andrew Luck was widely considered the biggest can't miss qb in some time. He will have a longer rope than RT. I'm rooting for RT as much as anyone but it doesn't take more than a year to see if your going to get a splash in the pan. Excellence shows often and early. With a full training camp and a full season of work they will know what the future looks like.

Why can't I compare Luck and Tannehill? Both are top 10 picks, rookies in 2012, and haven't proven anything at the pro level. Ryan Leaf was supposed to be the next best thing and he bombed. Alex Smith went #1 in 2005 and has been average in the pros, while Aaron Rodgers went #24 in 2005 and is arguably the best quarterback in the league. There is no way that you can sit there and tell me without a even a little doubt that Luck will definitely be better than Tannehill. Obviously Luck is the more polished quarterback coming out of college and there is a reason he went #1. Doesn't mean he is going to be a Hall Of Fame QB in the NFL.

Again, one year is not enough to determine if a QB is going to be great or a bust. To use Matthew Stafford as an example again. Sucked his rookie season. Didn't do much in his second year. Stud in year three. Tannehill likely isn't going to start a lot of games if any in 2012, so no way to determine 100% if he has it or not.

As for Barkley being the next big thing, who knows for sure? He was a stud in college? So was JaMarcus Russell. Mark Sanchez and Matt Leinart certainly don't give USC a good recent track history for first round picks.

Tannehill is the Dolphins quarterback that they will try to build around at least for the next three seasons. Want a QB in the first round in 2013 or even 2014? Forget it. Not happening.

 

[NYNCDOLFAN]

Tom Brady was going to be a bust to..
Joke

 

[Casas9425]

This is speculation that Barkley is "twice as good" at Tannehill. I don't know that, and you don't either. Tannehill is raw, but the front office, scouting department and coaching staff did their homework(they have more access to information then we do as fans and even the media) and determined that he was the guy that want to be the future and build around. Ireland at his post draft press conference even said that Tannehill is a guy they had been eying for a couple of years and he drafted him to be the starting QB(whether that is this year or next is up to the coaching staff). Why would Ireland draft Barkley exactly one year later when after years of draft prep picked a guy he plans on being the starter? Won't happen. New CBA rules about rookie salaries really do not matter because taking another 1st round QB is admitting a year later that your pick last year was a mistake. First off, no GM or coaching staff is going to admit a mistake on a 1st round QB just a year later. Also, one year is not enough time to even make the determination that your quarterback is a failure or a success.

If Miami is unfortunate to have a top 5 pick next year, don't waste your time dreaming about Barkley or any other of the top rated quarterbacks in 2013. No chance that happens, and I am surprised some of you actually think there is even a slim chance of it even happening. You can take it to the bank, write it in pen, whatever, IT IS NOT HAPPENING.

Tannehill is the guy the offense will be built around. The draft next year will be about giving Tannehill weapons to work with and continue to develop with. They probably will draft a QB in 2013, but think 4th round or later to be his backup. I have no clue whether Tannehill will become a franchise QB or end up a bust, and neither do any of you. The Colts drafted Andrew Luck this year and from the looks of their overall roster will struggle as a starter this season. If the Colts are on the clock and Matt Barkley is on the board, would you suggest they draft him? Or would it be better to take a different position to help the growth of Luck, or perhaps trade the pick to a team in need of a young QB and get multiple 1st rounders? Answer me that.

Watch some game tape of the two and you'll notice it is not speculation. One guy knows where to go with the football (Barkley) and one guy doesn't (Tannehill).

 

[Nublar7]

Watch some game tape of the two and you'll notice it is not speculation. One guy knows where to go with the football (Barkley) and one guy doesn't (Tannehill).

We will see, the pro and college game are two different animals. Just because you dominate in college doesn't mean you will continue to dominate in the pros. Matt Leinart, who just happens to have also gone to USC, didn't translate to the NFL. Not sure why we even continue to discuss Barkley as a prospect for the Dolphins, because he isn't.

 

[Wildbill3]

We will see, the pro and college game are two different animals. Just because you dominate in college doesn't mean you will continue to dominate in the pros. Matt Leinart, who just happens to have also gone to USC, didn't translate to the NFL. Not sure why we even continue to discuss Barkley as a prospect for the Dolphins, because he isn't.

because the suck for luckers want to blow for barkley.

 

[hoops]

there's nothing wrong with matt barkley as a prospect...he doesn't have tannehills upside but he's got a lot more polish...great feet with barkley...i mean great feet...pretty much always on balance and ready to throw...love me some matt barkley...

barkley logan thomas and the kid from arkansas who for some reason i'm having a brain fart on right now are all terrific franchise qb caliber top 10 pick worthy prospects in the upcoming draft...logan thomas potential is almost that of cam newton...almost

 

[sm0kinfins]

Watch some game tape of the two and you'll notice it is not speculation. One guy knows where to go with the football (Barkley) and one guy doesn't (Tannehill).

LMAO at anyone telling Nubs to "watch some game tape"