Did the Fins outsmart themselves with draft trades? | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Did the Fins outsmart themselves with draft trades?

BigNastyFish said:
Said this right away and good luck with the incoming.

The net net result of the trade was POOR value. Period.

And it will sink in. Sooner or later.

We traded #3 for #6 and got...

An R3 in '22 and and R1 in '23.

That's not even poor. It's horrible.

Picks in the future are significantly discounted in value terms.

The R1 in '23 is effectively the SAME value as an R3 in '21.

The R3 in '22 is effectively the SAME value as an R4 in '21.

So... we trade that super high value pick and EFFECTIVELY got an R3 and an R4 in present value!

Like I said. That BLOWS.

In addition, we also lost value in the mid rounds with a pick swap.

So as great as the swindle was Grier achieved with O'Brien, he BLEW a ton of value...
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What if in two years the niners have a Texan type season? Would the value be discounted?

I mean I just dont believe in devaluing a first round pick.
 
dnespins said:
made these deals too soon. teams get desperate on draft day. i think we could have done better. i'd much rather have 3 right now than 6 and a 2023 pick.
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Exactly. Not even close. I would give up something to reset to where we were prior to the trades.

There was at least an 80% chance that waiting was the superior option. Grier was essentially wagering that Zach Wilson was locked in to the Jets at 2, and that Jones, Fields and Lance would all lose value prior to draft day. That's the only combination that justifies an early bail. And even under that scenario it can still be argued that it was an incompetent decision. Teams have been known to surrender high resources on draft day to move up for specific skill players. The Julio Jones and Sammy Watkins trades are examples that come to mind immediately and I'm sure there are many more.

One source after another is saying the Falcons were the big winners of the Dolphin moves. So what does that tell you? The guy behind you in line is supposed to be nervous toward what you might do, not giddy at what you did.

I know I make too many references to Las Vegas. But it is what I know. There are two key aspects: You have to win the wager. You have to win the price. I saw many guys who could pick as well as anyone. But they didn't maximize because they were either too lazy to shop around, or they had terrible instincts toward which way the line would move. That last category describes Chris Grier. He didn't understand what he was sitting on. On another site I saw somebody claim the reason the 49ers swapped with the Dolphins instead of Atlanta is that both were asking the same thing. Obviously that's not confirmed but I wouldn't be surprised at all. I emphasized last week that Grier treated the 3 pick like the 4 pick in terms of what he received.

Given all the specialization on coaching staffs maybe there should be split general managers...somebody who grasps value and somebody who can pick players.

I'm not sure we have either. Grier drafts typically are praised then don't pan out. Somehow the owner and fans cling to first impression only.
 
djphinfan said:
What if in two years the niners have a Texan type season? Would the value be discounted?

I mean I just dont believe in devaluing a first round pick.
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That's a reasonable point. We have two swings that the 49ers suck. If they start a rookie quarterback it's not impossible in 2021.

Besides, the 49ers lost that Super Bowl. I'm not a huge believer in assigning benefit of a doubt to teams that lost.

The reason you devalue a first round pick is the situational reality that it should have been two first round picks.
 
bane said:
I think that is what is bothering the people who don’t like the trade. A lot of people want pitts and at 3 we def coulda had him. Now at 6 we have great choices but pitts might not make it. I honestly would be shocked if he went past the falcons.

But the trade works for Miami brain trust because they have three or four choices they are happy with . So they feel they win with any of the 3 or four players.
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I don’t think the Dolphins are as enthralled with Pitts as many on here are. If they had him as their top pick and they wanted to be sure he was available when they have their first pick, they would not have traded down to begin with.

I think they have 3 or 4 players they would be happy to draft at 6 and while Pitts might be one of those players. I don’t think they will be upset if Pitts is drafted before they select because they obviously will be thrilled to get any of the players they have targeted at 6.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
That's a reasonable point. We have two swings that the 49ers suck. If they start a rookie quarterback it's not impossible in 2021.

Besides, the 49ers lost that Super Bowl. I'm not a huge believer in assigning benefit of a doubt to teams that lost.

The reason you devalue a first round pick is the situational reality that it should have been two first round picks.
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You think we should of gotten two first round picks to move down from 3 to 6?
 
seble24 said:
I don't really understand this conception that future picks are worth less than current picks. I get it in the sense that coaches want to win immediately, but if you're building a sustainable pattern of success, it makes a ton of sense to roll over picks to the future. If you continue doing that year after year, you always have that extra draft capital and the only real pain is the year that you first start doing it.

Granted, there is some uncertainty on future picks since you don't know exactly where they'll land, but sometimes that uncertainty benefits you (our Houston picks). I would be thrilled if Grier continues this pattern of stocking up on future picks. Are people going to be complaining in 2023 when we have that extra SF pick? It's such an instant gratification mindset.
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It's because future money is always worth less than current money.
 
dnespins said:
made these deals too soon. teams get desperate on draft day. i think we could have done better. i'd much rather have 3 right now than 6 and a 2023 pick.
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I just speculated in another thread that the 9'ers are gonna trade down and get a better haul than what we got from them.
 
1972forever said:
I don’t think the Dolphins are as enthralled with Pitts as many on here are. If they had him as their top pick and they wanted to be sure he was available when they have their first pick, they would not have traded down to begin with.

I think they have 3 or 4 players they would be happy to draft at 6 and while Pitts might be one of those players. I don’t think they will be upset if Pitts is drafted before they select because they obviously will be thrilled to get any of the players they have targeted at 6.
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I would think every team has a group of players they would draft at a certain spot. Limiting it to one player, unless its the first or second overall pick, could be counter productive.
 
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