Did the Fins outsmart themselves with draft trades? | Page 6 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Did the Fins outsmart themselves with draft trades?

BigNastyFish said:
History is NOT a viable trade commodity. Never has been.

Picks are VALUED relative to position (in a sequence) + time value.

The "future" is discounted --------------- FYI that's why folks pay interest!

NO FOOL is going to lend you $100K today and only expect $100k in 10 years.

You're going to pay "interest" to compensate for the time value.

Like I said. It's extremely simple.
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Your posts make me feel like I’m on LinkedIn. A paragraph can be longer than 1 sentence.
 
EROCK528 said:
The only problem with pick 6 is that you have a very good chance to lose out on both Chase and Pitts...the top 2 offensive playmakers. Only time will tell.
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I would not worry much about this scenario for the following reasons.

1. I suspect there will be 4 x QB's taken before the 6th pick.
2. Atlanta has more need at QB and OT then receiver
3. If one of these QB's drop there will be a massive trade down opportunity.
4. Generally top 10 receivers do not work out
 
Awsi Dooger said:
...they had terrible instincts toward which way the line would move. That last category describes Chris Grier. He didn't understand what he was sitting on.
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great way to put it. that line ain't done moving either. oops.
 
djphinfan said:
Sorry BF I don’t get the exercise..
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OK.

Give me $100,000.00 today and I'll give you the same sum back in 2 years.

I just want the $100K for 2 years. NO COST. No additional comp.

No idiot will do that.

Now just consider the fact draft picks are a form of "currency."

Same basic facts apply.

And this is not even remotely theoretical! It's widely accepted as the norm in terms of trade value.

The ONLY thing you negotiate is the "interest."

So what I'm saying is that Grier wrote a total loser contract in terms of "interest" for trading down from 3 to 6.

And it's VERY easy to see and verify.
 
EROCK528 said:
The only problem with pick 6 is that you have a very good chance to lose out on both Chase and Pitts...the top 2 offensive playmakers. Only time will tell.
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You may be forgetting the Heisman trophy winner. Pitts and Chase may be total busts. Hell all the 1st round WR and TEs might be busts.

Enough with this crap like your crystal ball tells you Pitts and Chase are 1st ballot HoFers.

Both could get career ending Bridgewater level injuries in preseason for all we know.

It's all a crap shoot, some picks aren't as wild as a roulette wheel, but it's still a gamble
 
BNF - where did Grier give away picks for the exact same pick in the future?
 
If you knew that you wanted to be at #6 make the team you're trading down with deal with the Eagles first before moving down to their slot. Don't do their freaking leg work for them.

If you also knew you'd be trading with the Eagles and keeping the 49ers 2022 1st rounder over yours, you have to demand more 2021 draft picks from the 49ers - do what you can to make them worse or no deal.

Grier is probably sitting in office now sweating at all these incredible pro-day numbers. Maybe he sold too early? Maybe no one knows yet that he blew it? Did I blow it? I blew it, better take Sewell at 6.
 
BigNastyFish said:
OK.

Give me $100,000.00 today and I'll give you the same sum back in 2 years.

I just want the $100K for 2 years. NO COST. No additional comp.

No idiot will do that.

Now just consider the fact draft picks are a form of "currency."

Same basic facts apply.

And this is not even remotely theoretical! It's widely accepted as the norm in terms of trade value.

The ONLY thing you negotiate is the "interest."

So what I'm saying is that Grier wrote a total loser contract in terms of "interest" for trading down from 3 to 6.

And it's VERY easy to see and verify.
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Interesting.wouldn’t the third round pick be considered interest in this case?
 
We may receive some big offers for #6 due to ATL and Bengals not taking QBs. If ATL grabs Pitts I hope we trade back for some nice 2021 draft capital. I wouldnt trade #6 for anything less than their 2021 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

We may have taken 6th for that reason. Once 3 QBs are off the board Miami holds the golden ticket for the 4th because teams know Carolina will take a QB at 8.
 
BigNastyFish said:
OK.

Give me $100,000.00 today and I'll give you the same sum back in 2 years.

I just want the $100K for 2 years. NO COST. No additional comp.

No idiot will do that.

Now just consider the fact draft picks are a form of "currency."

Same basic facts apply.

And this is not even remotely theoretical! It's widely accepted as the norm in terms of trade value.

The ONLY thing you negotiate is the "interest."

So what I'm saying is that Grier wrote a total loser contract in terms of "interest" for trading down from 3 to 6.

And it's VERY easy to see and verify.
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You forget that you save $7 million in contract value going from pick 3 to 6. That's 2 free agent salaries for a year.

I'm glad you think Grier blows, but saving 7 million is a bigger deal than you think for what would probably be the exactly same drafted player. Clearly they aren't only sold on one pick.
 
dnespins said:
made these deals too soon. teams get desperate on draft day. i think we could have done better. i'd much rather have 3 right now than 6 and a 2023 pick.
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That works both ways. Wait too long and another team be
BlueUndertow said:
Why would I? We're talking a pair of trades the Dolphins made. It's not my responsibility to do a rundown of the entire league.

Here's the trade:

Miami (outgoing):
2021 Round 1 Pick 3 (-2200 pts)
2021 Round 4 Pick 123 (-49 pts)
2022 Round 1 (-400 pts)

Miami (incoming):
2021 Round 1 Pick 6 (from PHI) (+1600 pts)
2021 Round 5 Pick 156 (from PHI) (+27.4 pts)
2022 Round 1 (from SF) (+470 pts)
2022 Round 3 (from SF) (+60 pts)
2023 Round 1 (from SF) (+210 pts)

Approx value (future picks being equivalent to this years but one round lower):
Outgoing 2649 vs Incoming 2367.4

Obviously approx value isn't a be all or end all, but the Dolphins aren't showing a net gain to me and probably a net loss.
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How are you figuring these values for picks?
 
BigNastyFish said:
OK.

Give me $100,000.00 today and I'll give you the same sum back in 2 years.

I just want the $100K for 2 years. NO COST. No additional comp.

No idiot will do that.

Now just consider the fact draft picks are a form of "currency."

Same basic facts apply.

And this is not even remotely theoretical! It's widely accepted as the norm in terms of trade value.

The ONLY thing you negotiate is the "interest."

So what I'm saying is that Grier wrote a total loser contract in terms of "interest" for trading down from 3 to 6.

And it's VERY easy to see and verify.
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Some dispute this theory...

Indeed, at the article over at overthecap, the author brought up, then rejected that theory.

For a free thinker, you are being unusually doctrinaire in this.
 
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