Did the Fins outsmart themselves with draft trades? | Page 7 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Did the Fins outsmart themselves with draft trades?

djphinfan said:
Interesting.wouldn’t the third round pick be considered interest in this case?
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Of course.

It's about the SUM value of what we got vs. what we gave up.

Think I've made that pretty clear.

Point is -- IF Grier would have added a '21 R2 into the equation for us the "value" (net net) would have been a LOT better.

But ----- the truth is, in net terms we ONLY lost value in '21.

Hard to turn that golden nugget into an immediate "loser" in terms of present value.

But that's exactly what Grier did. No disputing that. It's FACT.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
Exactly. Not even close. I would give up something to reset to where we were prior to the trades.

There was at least an 80% chance that waiting was the superior option. Grier was essentially wagering that Zach Wilson was locked in to the Jets at 2, and that Jones, Fields and Lance would all lose value prior to draft day. That's the only combination that justifies an early bail. And even under that scenario it can still be argued that it was an incompetent decision. Teams have been known to surrender high resources on draft day to move up for specific skill players. The Julio Jones and Sammy Watkins trades are examples that come to mind immediately and I'm sure there are many more.

One source after another is saying the Falcons were the big winners of the Dolphin moves. So what does that tell you? The guy behind you in line is supposed to be nervous toward what you might do, not giddy at what you did.

I know I make too many references to Las Vegas. But it is what I know. There are two key aspects: You have to win the wager. You have to win the price. I saw many guys who could pick as well as anyone. But they didn't maximize because they were either too lazy to shop around, or they had terrible instincts toward which way the line would move. That last category describes Chris Grier. He didn't understand what he was sitting on. On another site I saw somebody claim the reason the 49ers swapped with the Dolphins instead of Atlanta is that both were asking the same thing. Obviously that's not confirmed but I wouldn't be surprised at all. I emphasized last week that Grier treated the 3 pick like the 4 pick in terms of what he received.

Given all the specialization on coaching staffs maybe there should be split general managers...somebody who grasps value and somebody who can pick players.

I'm not sure we have either. Grier drafts typically are praised then don't pan out. Somehow the owner and fans cling to first impression onl
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Feverdream said:
Some dispute this theory...

Indeed, at the article over at overthecap, the author brought up, then rejected that theory.

For a free thinker, you are being unusually doctrinaire in this this.
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It's just the reality of how transactional process works...

Geez
 
Awsi Dooger said:
Exactly. Not even close. I would give up something to reset to where we were prior to the trades.

There was at least an 80% chance that waiting was the superior option. Grier was essentially wagering that Zach Wilson was locked in to the Jets at 2, and that Jones, Fields and Lance would all lose value prior to draft day. That's the only combination that justifies an early bail. And even under that scenario it can still be argued that it was an incompetent decision. Teams have been known to surrender high resources on draft day to move up for specific skill players. The Julio Jones and Sammy Watkins trades are examples that come to mind immediately and I'm sure there are many more.

One source after another is saying the Falcons were the big winners of the Dolphin moves. So what does that tell you? The guy behind you in line is supposed to be nervous toward what you might do, not giddy at what you did.

I know I make too many references to Las Vegas. But it is what I know. There are two key aspects: You have to win the wager. You have to win the price. I saw many guys who could pick as well as anyone. But they didn't maximize because they were either too lazy to shop around, or they had terrible instincts toward which way the line would move. That last category describes Chris Grier. He didn't understand what he was sitting on. On another site I saw somebody claim the reason the 49ers swapped with the Dolphins instead of Atlanta is that both were asking the same thing. Obviously that's not confirmed but I wouldn't be surprised at all. I emphasized last week that Grier treated the 3 pick like the 4 pick in terms of what he received.

Given all the specialization on coaching staffs maybe there should be split general managers...somebody who grasps value and somebody who can pick players.

I'm not sure we have either. Grier drafts typically are praised then don't pan out. Somehow the owner and fans cling to first impression only.
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You have to take into consideration that no one knows how these picks are going to turn out anyway.
 
Feverdream said:
It isn't...

It is one framework for building a model.

There are other considerations other than an arbitrary points chart.

The saving in salary, and moving assets to a year where you want to have them have both been mentioned.
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Dude.

You're just absolutely WRONG on this one.

But believe whatever you want to believe and let's go in peace from here...
 
EROCK528 said:
The only problem with pick 6 is that you have a very good chance to lose out on both Chase and Pitts...the top 2 offensive playmakers. Only time will tell.
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100% agree. Iv been saying that to my friends all wk
 
andyahs said:
There are more players then those 2 they covet.
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Yes there are also players in the 3rd round. All I’m saying is if chase goes to Cin and he is a stud in the nfl and our guy is mediocre some heads better role
 
Manning said:
Yes there are also players in the 3rd round. All I’m saying is if chase goes to Cin and he is a stud in the nfl and our guy is mediocre some heads better role
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Nope in the first round.
 
I think the value for going from 3 to 12 was a great haul. But then they overpaid going back from 12 to 6. But, I think they are clearly thinking quality now and not just trying to accumulate a raw number of picks. The calculation is there are some key guys and they absolutely had to come out of there with one of them. This is by design to get a particular issue dealt with, an alpha, playmaking receiving target.
 
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