Dolphins looking to trade 6 pick? | Page 15 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphins looking to trade 6 pick?

Ray R said:
I agree.

I also believe that some teams take "unrealistic" actions as the draft approaches to target players early in the draft.

If we can get " a Texan" type of "unrealistic" trade with some team, I say take it.

I also think Grier did the right thing when he made a second trade from #12 to #6; and other teams calling in to ask about a trade confirms the wisdom of his actions.

I feel when we are getting calls to make a trade as opposed to calling around to make a trade, we have a distinct advantage.
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Wholeheartedly agree. And the speed of the two trades makes it clear that he was not interested in making that first trade from #3 to #12 unless he had already gotten a verbal handshake on the trade back up from #12 to #6. It may not have technically been a 3-team trade, but the the nature of the first trade being contingent on the second trade is obvious. Grier had no intention of moving from #3 to #12, because he'd lose out on a guy he considers an elite tier talent. He merely wanted to move down from #3 to #6 to pick up assets and stay within that top echelon of talent in that top tier.

IMHO, Grier's greatest trait is his ability to evaluate those differing tiers of talent and then maneuver draft picks to get us into the back end of each tier. For example on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being highest, if Tier 1 is all guys who graded between 9.4 and 8.9, and then Tier 2 is all guys who graded 7.2 to 6.8, you can see a huge drop off there. While there might be 7 guys we have in Tier 1, and another 20 guys we have in Tier 2, the value of those draft picks is equally gradated on a steady decline of value and salary requirements, more like going down a flight of steps, each one a little lower than the last one, but with no big drops. Because the Tiers have big drops, we get the most value grabbing one of those higher valued guys at the end of the tier before the drop.

So, Grier moves around the draft board pre-draft to maneuver into positions where the draft value is lower but the player value is still high. Not the absolute end of the tier most times, but where he suspects is near the back end of it. Imagine you had a draft with these 10 guys in it--Deion Sanders, JJ Watt, Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Christian Wilkins, Cordrea Tankersley, Jerome Baker, Raekwon McMillan, Davon Godchaux, Taco Charlton. There is a clear Tier 1 of the first 4 guys. You can rank them differently, and there might not be consensus on the order or ranking of those first 4 guys ... but there's a clear and obvious break where the worst of those 4 is light years better than all of the Tier 2 guys. No matter which defensive guy you want, they all have elite athletic ability, and all have been productive in college. The Jets and Raiders consistently pick from Tier 2 when they could pick a Tier 1 guy ... they're wrong about their evaluations and don't move up to get a guy in a higher tier, nor do they typically move down to reach the end of a tier. Grier would probably move down to #3 or #4 and scoop up extra draft picks, but would not entertain moving down to #5 or below, because he'd miss out on that top tier.

There are many tiers in each draft, and those Tier 2 guys I listed above were all good prospects ... but for every Christian Wilkins, there's a Taco Charlton ... great prospect who didn't pan out. I used players I figured everyone would be familiar with because they were either HoF guys (Tier 1) or Dolphins (Tier 2). The point is ... the prospects are not equal steps down with each pick, so Grier moves to where the player is still a higher Tier player, but the draft pick value is a bit lower. That's Grier's greatest strength--his ability to rank them and his aggressiveness and effectiveness to pull off those trades. Love it or hate it (and I happen to love it), that's who Chris Grier is. He hit on Tunsil, even thought it was socially unpopular to some. He then hit again by recognizing the Texans trade was too good to pass up. He hit on Minkah Fitzpatrick, and was wrong about trading him away ... but the player clearly was not happy and the Coach clearly was not going to play Minkah in his best position, so that wasn't working in Miami.

During the draft Grier factors in the guys actually taken and the other teams' needs more. So, when we need an elite CB and they're going off the board faster than anticipated, he trades up in the 2nd round to make sure he gets Xavien Howard. Similarly, if a position is sliding and those guys are going to be available later than projected, he'll trade back and scoop up draft capital. He's a wheeler dealer. That requires valuing the board correctly, but also setting up and swinging deals on a very short timeframe. The setting up part is where most GM's fail, so they cannot pull the trigger on draft day, because they're not in the same ballpark as the other team. Grier does his homework and has a working relationship with those other GM's ... and he cultivates those relationships.

Ultimately, Grier will be judged like Coach Flo .... on how many wins we get. But when evaluating Grier, it's good to note that he has at least one skill (maneuvering around the draft board) that is truly elite.
 
Fitzmagic said:
What I think he is saying and what myself and others are saying is what good are the picks if your just accumulating JAGs? I guarantee we didn’t draft one Pro Bowl talent with all that capital last year.

We need some real talent, not roster filler. We need some Chase, Pitts, Parsons types. I personally am tired of passing on the Randy Moss, Earl Thomas of the World for the John Averys and Jared OdrIcks. But maybe that is me.
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If ppl want to say they don't like the picks/philosophy, that's an entirely different conversation. Just say that.

You just don't like the picks we make, and that's fine, but we have had more top picks over the last two drafts than most any other team.

The way it was worded, indicated that we were just pushing picks into the future, and not drafting players now. That is not the case.
 
It’s all good until you give some young man a signing bonus tell him he is amazing then you end up with say Isiah Wilson. Many will be great , some lose heart ,some have no skills to further develop, and some fall to the most power force known to man, if you don’t know what that is click the ladies lounge link here.
 
Ray R said:
That chart is a guideline based on one mans estimation.

It must not be as reliable as Kelly's "blue book" because the people making the trades seem to disregard it at will.
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You would be surprised how closely trades follow the guideline, whether they intentionally use it or not. It is very, very rare that you see a team give up double the “value” of the trade to move up.
 
Danny said:
what if both of them are gone?
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Then perhaps...but if Atlanta moves or even possibly if they stay, one of the two is most likely going to be there. I would put it at over 80%.

If both are gone, then we can see where the next targeted guys are. If we have three other guys targeted and someone offers to move us back 4 spots with good compensation, then consider it.
 
Is it safe to say your optimistic about all 4 players? None of them have excited many fans including myself, not even Tua. Wilkins has been a little disappointing except for his cheerleading. Id rather be an optiist than pessimist but hard to like what we have seen so far in Rd 1. You would think that out of 4 picks in 2 years in Rd 1 that at least one you'd be pumped about more than just hope and optimism...
 
This is such a nutty draft year. It defies so many draft norms.

TE is the best player in a draft?

The top OL, WR, and LB sat out the year and still considered #1 at their positions?

It's hard to rationalize why a team would mortgage their future to move up for the 4th or 5th QB on the board.
 
dagger151 said:
Is it safe to say your optimistic about all 4 players? None of them have excited many fans including myself, not even Tua. Wilkins has been a little disappointing except for his cheerleading. Id rather be an optiist than pessimist but hard to like what we have seen so far in Rd 1. You would think that out of 4 picks in 2 years in Rd 1 that at least one you'd be pumped about more than just hope and optimism...
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Way early to be so pessimistic, Wilkins is a core part of the DL and the rookies from last year all still have huge ceilings, Jackson and Iggy are very young but talented and it wasn't long ago Tua was considered the next great thing. The great thing we have going for us is Coach Flo actually develops players, with a real off season/pre-season I am very intrigued how are youngest team in the league will grow, I mean it was just last year we won 10 games after being the tank job joke of the league the year prior despite some success down the stretch. They are doing something right.
 
Digital said:
Wholeheartedly agree. And the speed of the two trades makes it clear that he was not interested in making that first trade from #3 to #12 unless he had already gotten a verbal handshake on the trade back up from #12 to #6. It may not have technically been a 3-team trade, but the the nature of the first trade being contingent on the second trade is obvious. Grier had no intention of moving from #3 to #12, because he'd lose out on a guy he considers an elite tier talent. He merely wanted to move down from #3 to #6 to pick up assets and stay within that top echelon of talent in that top tier.

IMHO, Grier's greatest trait is his ability to evaluate those differing tiers of talent and then maneuver draft picks to get us into the back end of each tier. For example on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being highest, if Tier 1 is all guys who graded between 9.4 and 8.9, and then Tier 2 is all guys who graded 7.2 to 6.8, you can see a huge drop off there. While there might be 7 guys we have in Tier 1, and another 20 guys we have in Tier 2, the value of those draft picks is equally gradated on a steady decline of value and salary requirements, more like going down a flight of steps, each one a little lower than the last one, but with no big drops. Because the Tiers have big drops, we get the most value grabbing one of those higher valued guys at the end of the tier before the drop.

So, Grier moves around the draft board pre-draft to maneuver into positions where the draft value is lower but the player value is still high. Not the absolute end of the tier most times, but where he suspects is near the back end of it. Imagine you had a draft with these 10 guys in it--Deion Sanders, JJ Watt, Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Christian Wilkins, Cordrea Tankersley, Jerome Baker, Raekwon McMillan, Davon Godchaux, Taco Charlton. There is a clear Tier 1 of the first 4 guys. You can rank them differently, and there might not be consensus on the order or ranking of those first 4 guys ... but there's a clear and obvious break where the worst of those 4 is light years better than all of the Tier 2 guys. No matter which defensive guy you want, they all have elite athletic ability, and all have been productive in college. The Jets and Raiders consistently pick from Tier 2 when they could pick a Tier 1 guy ... they're wrong about their evaluations and don't move up to get a guy in a higher tier, nor do they typically move down to reach the end of a tier. Grier would probably move down to #3 or #4 and scoop up extra draft picks, but would not entertain moving down to #5 or below, because he'd miss out on that top tier.

There are many tiers in each draft, and those Tier 2 guys I listed above were all good prospects ... but for every Christian Wilkins, there's a Taco Charlton ... great prospect who didn't pan out. I used players I figured everyone would be familiar with because they were either HoF guys (Tier 1) or Dolphins (Tier 2). The point is ... the prospects are not equal steps down with each pick, so Grier moves to where the player is still a higher Tier player, but the draft pick value is a bit lower. That's Grier's greatest strength--his ability to rank them and his aggressiveness and effectiveness to pull off those trades. Love it or hate it (and I happen to love it), that's who Chris Grier is. He hit on Tunsil, even thought it was socially unpopular to some. He then hit again by recognizing the Texans trade was too good to pass up. He hit on Minkah Fitzpatrick, and was wrong about trading him away ... but the player clearly was not happy and the Coach clearly was not going to play Minkah in his best position, so that wasn't working in Miami.

During the draft Grier factors in the guys actually taken and the other teams' needs more. So, when we need an elite CB and they're going off the board faster than anticipated, he trades up in the 2nd round to make sure he gets Xavien Howard. Similarly, if a position is sliding and those guys are going to be available later than projected, he'll trade back and scoop up draft capital. He's a wheeler dealer. That requires valuing the board correctly, but also setting up and swinging deals on a very short timeframe. The setting up part is where most GM's fail, so they cannot pull the trigger on draft day, because they're not in the same ballpark as the other team. Grier does his homework and has a working relationship with those other GM's ... and he cultivates those relationships.

Ultimately, Grier will be judged like Coach Flo .... on how many wins we get. But when evaluating Grier, it's good to note that he has at least one skill (maneuvering around the draft board) that is truly elite.
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I totally agree.

When you said "So, Grier moves around the draft board pre-draft to maneuver into positions where the draft value is lower but the player value is still high." you nailed it.

I would only add that in general, that as I see it, a GM is responsible for the long term growth of the team. This is why he is in charge of the draft on most teams. The GM should be making choices exactly the way you said when he identified tiers. Once that is done he should co-ordinate with the coach concerning the potential viability of the GM's picks.

If a GM does that and can keep the cap under control, he has done his job.
 
dolfan91 said:


This is why it is very possible Miami trades down. The extra picks gives Miami a better chance at selecting several of these kids.
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I'm not entirely sure how the 3ypc guys (well Alf I guess since he was probably the one that wrote this) can quantify this. What's the metric, where's the evidence ? Having said that I think it's a few of those names are definitely on our radar.
 
Ray R said:
I disagree; but this year and next year will tell the tale of the Miami Dolphins.

In my opinion it will either be a climb to respectability or a climb beyond respectability, to superiority. I don't know which one it will be, but based on what I've seen the last two seasons I'm pretty sure that respectability is the lower probability.

This is seldom done and maintained in less than 3 seasons after a significant change in the FO and coaching, 4 seasons if you consider the initial year where teams are stuck with their cap level, players on the team and whatever draft positions based on previous management & coaching.
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While I want to agree 2 factors come into play a hungry Pats team, a a accending Bills team and us being all in on Tua and his health factor. Those are 4 hard wins with a QB who looked overmatched a few games plus gets hurt. It's really going to test Florres coaching. I will try to stay focused on improvement not wins but when Fitz could move the team and Tua could not last year everyone looked like they were struggling.
 
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