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Draft needs

Feverdream said:
Running QBs don't last. They never have. The first one that makes it to his early 30s and is still an asset will be the first.
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They usually do well in their first year until there is film on them. Sooner or later you have to throw to win...
 
Feverdream said:
Not to be too much of a pedant, but there are really only 24 all-pro players, and 32 teams, so most teams are lucky to have 1.

Now if we are talking pro-bowl players... the above math begins to make more sense.
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First, I have no respect for Pro Bowl voting. Checked the 2018 All Pro list. about 75 players so we'll call that 2.5 All Pros per team. Not ELITE. All Pro. that's even more average players per team. Bell curve
 
13marino13 said:
At one point a few years back we had 4 first-round draft picks on our line, how did that work out?
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It's not just the pick, its the selection that was made at that pick. Not every draftee is an NFL success story. The people doing the picking have a lot of responsibility for the result of their picks.
 
ThePeopleShow13 said:
The 4th or 5th pick is not the same as a mid 20s pick. See my post for clarification that I would expect an OL with our 1c pick which projects in that range. The point of my post is not that I expect us to draft like NE. I expect us to evaluate and value players like NE which is where most of our coaching staff is from. Tua at our 1a pick is going to be more and more likely as the draft approaches and he gets medical clearance. Not sure Ross lets another guy he considers a franchise QB slip past us like Lamar Jackson (if Tua is healthy of course).
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Didn’t Mando write an article not too long ago that Ross wanting Jackson wasn’t true? Also, if we wanted Tua, would we tell every other team in the league he is our target? Maybe, but if he is truly the guy they want, that’s terrible draft strategy
 
Ray R said:
It's not just the pick, its the selection that was made at that pick. Not every draftee is an NFL success story. The people doing the picking have a lot of responsibility for the result of their picks.
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That's the myth too many can't let go of. In reality, of the top 10 R1 picks, 40% make All Pro at least once. Not every year. Not elite. Not HOF. All Pro - once in a career. About 30% are backups or rotational by year 4. And the odds decrease with each round. Yet, if the team doesn't get a player All Pro by year 2, he's a bust and the FO did a crappy job.
In fairness, some FOs do a better job than others - a little better. But that "little better" is the difference between a good draft and a poor draft.
 
NEPA Phin Phan said:
Didn’t Mando write an article not too long ago that Ross wanting Jackson wasn’t true? Also, if we wanted Tua, would we tell every other team in the league he is our target? Maybe, but if he is truly the guy they want, that’s terrible draft strategy
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He did, Ross even confirmed that in an interview. I linked it in another thread, it’s titled the Lamar Jackson Myth or something.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
That's the myth too many can't let go of. In reality, of the top 10 R1 picks, 40% make All Pro at least once. Not every year. Not elite. Not HOF. All Pro - once in a career. About 30% are backups or rotational by year 4. And the odds decrease with each round. Yet, if the team doesn't get a player All Pro by year 2, he's a bust and the FO did a crappy job.
In fairness, some FOs do a better job than others - a little better. But that "little better" is the difference between a good draft and a poor draft.
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Well, I can't argue the validity of those statistics, but there is another view to consider.

By those numbers, it is reasonable to expect 70% are solid, long term players on average, and the Dolphins haven't been even close in that respect.

I would also say that no GM works in a vacuum. The scouting dept. has to be effective. The HC has to have, and convey a good vision. I'm not going to go so far as giving Grier a pass for the past, but as he said, he can't really force a player on a HC that doesn't want him, and I don't think Gase had any real plan, and was clueless about talent. There is a lot more to drafting than watching highlight tape. I think Flo is light years better in this respect than any coach we have had since the turn of the century.
 
yes, running QBs dont last long unless their name is Russell Wilson, but thats rare.

Lamar Jackson is doing amazing, and Ravens fans are loving it. But, remember RG3? He's a backup that nobody talks about now.
 
Mach2 said:
Well, I can't argue the validity of those statistics, but there is another view to consider.

By those numbers, it is reasonable to expect 70% are solid, long term players on average, and the Dolphins haven't been even close in that respect.

I would also say that no GM works in a vacuum. The scouting dept. has to be effective. The HC has to have, and convey a good vision. I'm not going to go so far as giving Grier a pass for the past, but as he said, he can't really force a player on a HC that doesn't want him, and I don't think Gase had any real plan, and was clueless about talent. There is a lot more to drafting than watching highlight tape. I think Flo is light years better in this respect than any coach we have had since the turn of the century.
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Agree. IMO, That's where scouting is important. BUT, we can't overemphasize the coaching staff. Just as said in QB related threads, top 10 players go to bottom 10 teams
 
13marino13 said:
They usually do well in their first year until there is film on them. Sooner or later you have to throw to win...
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Jackson doesn't throw the ball?
 
DPhinz_DPhinz said:
Jackson doesn't throw the ball?
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Didn't say he didn't, I said sooner or later they have to throw the ball to be successful. If you can throw and run great, if you're a one-trick pony running all the time, you won't last long. I suspect you'll see him stop running as much in the future.
 
13marino13 said:
Didn't say he didn't, I said sooner or later they have to throw the ball to be successful. If you can throw and run great, if you're a one-trick pony running all the time, you won't last long. I suspect you'll see him stop running as much in the future.
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As he ages he might...as long as he is healthy he is unstoppable with his running and he'd be doing that until:

  • He could no longer run like that physically.
  • NFL defenses caught up with him to a degree where he's no longer effective.
 
DPhinz_DPhinz said:
As he ages he might...as long as he is healthy he is unstoppable with his running and he'd be doing that until:

  • He could no longer run like that physically.
  • NFL defenses caught up with him to a degree where he's no longer effective.
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Or Harbaugh leans on him. Wouldn't be the 1st HC to rein in a running QB
 
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