Insider Allbright has Miami taking Smith #3

[Gsmack_42]

i think when John Ross was drafted the Bengals were as high on him as we would be on Smith if we drafted him at #3. Again, I'm not saying he's not good, but many don't even have him as the highest rated WR in this draft class, much less the best WR prospect in 15 years. #3 is too high for him, or ANY WR for that matter unless they are the second coming of Calvin Johnson, which Smith is not.

Historically speaking, there's like a 60-70% chance that Smith, or any WR we might pick in the top 10, will not be worth picking that high. Maybe if we can find a partner and trade down to somewhere in the 6-10 range, picking a WR there can be justified because we'd most likely be getting another #1 to mitigate the risk, but not at #3.

Sorry to tell you as a life long huskies fan, Ross can’t hold Smiths jock. Ross got by on speed alone and that’s it. Smith is by far a better route runner has better hands. The only thing Ross has on Smith is track speed, I’m not even sure he has him football speed.

 

[Kamelion4291]

My ideal world isn't an either/or at all it's a both Pitts and Smith would be a great duo. But if I have to prioritise one in the first it would be Pitts because you can't get that talent anywhere else. It's difficult to get Smith's talent either but the drop off to a St Brown, Marshall, Wallace, Toney, Bateman, Rodgers or whomever is not as severe.

To get an and we will have to manufacture to top 12 picks, that's doable with trading down and back up.

To be honest I think Pitts is starting to get massively overrated. The production doesn't match the hype imo.

 

[bdizzle00]

Who cares where WRs were picked 20 years ago or later? They have far more impact today than they did back then because of the rule changes.

Who said anything about 20 years or later? I think you misunderstood my post. I'm using data only from the last 10 years. By 20's I meant almost all the best CURRENT WR's in the NFL were drafted with the 20th pick or later, most of them much later.

 

[bdizzle00]

Sorry to tell you as a life long huskies fan, Ross can’t hold Smiths jock. Ross got by on speed alone and that’s it. Smith is by far a better route runner has better hands. The only thing Ross has on Smith is track speed, I’m not even sure he has him football speed.

Great, so let's use Ross as evidence as to why we should draft Smith at #3 and ignore the last 10 years of proof showing all the best WRs in the NFL were drafted much, much later than pick #3, and most not even in the first round. Seems logical.

 

[Dan13Forever]

You clearly have no idea what Kyle Pitts is, or seen any of his tape. I've watched every single snap of his as a Gator.

Firstly the Kid can block, where on earth did you read he couldn't, he's just not asked to do it a lot because he's so damn good in other areas.
Secondly he's not a converted TE to WR, he's a receiver you can line up literally anywhere and he will create a match up nightmares, he can also block men way bigger than he is. He is not your typical TE because he has all the skills require dfor an elite prospect at WR too.

He's a freak of an athlete, a rare talent that you simply can't find in many drafts, the 3ypc guys in their latest pod described him a the best TE prospect to come out in many a year. And it's difficult to argue with that. Tua needs weapons, Gesicki isn't consistent enough, especially with Tua throwing him the ball to hang your hat on and give him a huge wedge of cash next season when his contract is up. The league is all about creating mismatches, and everyone who watched college football last year described Pitts as the biggest mismatch in the country. Passing on him could be a huge mistake especially if he goes at 15 to a team we have to play twice a year.

IMO you don't let this kid get past you and after a trade back to no lower than 10 you grab him, you can get WRs in the 2nd and 3rd that will help you out too but you won't get another Pitts in this or any other draft for a long time.

I do. You are more of a gators fan than finfan.

 

[Average Tua]

By the time the drafts over we could change their name to the Miami Tide

 

[Kamelion4291]

Great, so let's use Ross as evidence as to why we should draft Smith at #3 and ignore the last 10 years of proof showing all the best WRs in the NFL were drafted much, much later than pick #3, and most not even in the first round. Seems logical.

That's because WRs are really hard to project due to a myriad of reasons why they produce the way they do... small school, played against bad corners, weren't in a passing offense, had a bad QB etc.

This leads to a lot of guesses and therefore a lot of busts in the 1st round. Rarely do you get a prospect like Smith though that played at a big school, tore up highly ranked corners, and in the biggest games produced like a superstar. It makes it easier than any previous draft list would suggest, substantially raises the success rate of the pick, and it's at a premium position to boot. I don't understand the hesitation.

 

[Kebo]

I have no doubt Smith will be the best Bama WR since Julio.

 

[Gsmack_42]

Great, so let's use Ross as evidence as to why we should draft Smith at #3 and ignore the last 10 years of proof showing all the best WRs in the NFL were drafted much, much later than pick #3, and most not even in the first round. Seems logical.

No because every year is different if they where all the same. We would have a 1983 QB class every year and all the teams would have a HOF QB. So then some of these high first round WR would have HOF QB’s throwing to them and they might not be busts. Sometimes high picks just go to bad teams and never develop to what they could of been. Or they are just young men that don’t have the drive to be great.

 

[Geordie]

I do. You are more of a gators fan than finfan.

I am, I didn't know ? Thanks for that.

I guess I was more a Bama fan, last year when I was pounding the table for and still do for Tua. Or a Sooner when I was besotted by Kyler Murray, the previous year.

I honestly couldn't give a crap with school he plays for, I just an added bonus that he was a Gator, because I got to see him every week. I've never been as anxious for the Fins to get a hold of a Gator than I am with Pitts.

 

[BennySwella]

Were you onboard for us drafting Tua, or is this another way to say that we should draft (Sewell, Smith, Parsons)?

I was onboard with drafting Tua but he was a special case. We were talking about one of the greatest college QBs of all time with an injury that did not have to do with his head or arms. Waddle has leg injuries and he is WR. He will consistently be using his legs and we do not know the status of his recovery or if he will return to game shape. Plus I think he is overrated as a player, not because of his injury.

I dont have anyone in particular in mind to pick in his stead, Jamar Chase if he is available possibly but he wont be there at 18.

 

[bdizzle00]

Every year has NOT been different, that's what I'm trying to tell you, or rather, that's what the facts show.

In fact, every year the past 10 years has shown the same thing, that the best WRs are had later in the first or beyond. If you are convinced that the 175 pound Smith who wasn't even the best WR on his team when Waddle was healthy, and that many don't even think is the top WR in this draft class is a generational talent that will be the outlier for the past 10 years of draft results, so be it. I truly hope you are right if we pick him at 3 but the odds are against it.

 

[Kamelion4291]

Every year has NOT been different, that's what I'm trying to tell you, or rather, that's what the facts show.

In fact, every year the past 10 years has shown the same thing, that the best WRs are had later in the first or beyond. If you are convinced that the 175 pound Smith who wasn't even the best WR on his team when Waddle was healthy, and that many don't even think is the top WR in this draft class is a generational talent that will be the outlier for the past 10 years of draft results, so be it. I truly hope you are right if we pick him at 3 but the odds are against it.

This is a bold face lie. Negates the credibility of the rest of it.

 

[Dan13Forever]

Which is why I used a 10 year sample size and the entire first round, not 3 years and the first 3 picks. I’d be happy to do some research to see how many first round LTs were taken in the first round over the past 10 years that went to the Super Bowl if you’d like, then we can draw a fair comparison. Your “argument” has no relevance to mine at all.

I”m sorry, I’m not saying he’s not good, but I don’t think 175 pound Devante Smith is worthy of being the highest drafted WR since Calvin Johnson. We can do better if we stay at 3, which I doubt we will.

Not sure what the hostility is all about, but whatever. You do you.

Not hostility.
I just pointed out how you framed your argument in a twisted way to support taking Sewell while most agreed the glaring hole now is in wr.

When you present argument like that, get ready to be challenged.

 

[bdizzle00]

Not hostility.
I just pointed out how you framed your argument in a twisted way to support taking Sewell while most agreed the glaring hole now is in wr.

When you present argument like that, get ready to be challenged.

My point was really not to draft Sewell, my point was not to draft a WR at #3, and my sample size was about 10 times of your example.