I just don't understand how you can think Flores & Grier don't believe in Tua. Do you really think if they didn't, they would pass on the opportunity to select Trey Lance or Justin Fields at #3? Realistically, the chance that the fins end up that high in the draft any time soon is slim so this would have been their opportunity. QB is the most important position in football, and you better believe both Flores and Grier know that whoever they go with at QB will play a part in how their future careers turn out. They decided to lock it in with Tua and went and grabbed Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle to surround him with playmakers and both players play to Tua's strengths.
If Tua fails, this sets the team back huge regardless of the rest of the roster and I am sure Flores & Grier know that.
Also, NFL projections for 2021 or even five years from now are always completed with recency bias. You think Josh Allen would have been on any lists at the beginning of last year? What about Lamar Jackson the year before that?
What if Tua kills it this year and Herbert hits a sophomore slump? What's the top 10 list look like going into next year then?