So-called "fly by the pants" analysis is a common fault. Equally pathetic is failing to grasp the likelihood of upward adjustment, especially when the asserted ceiling is ultra top tier.
Tannehill will never be an elite quarterback based on attrition elsewhere. That's ultimate ignorance. I've seen it from the Bar Stool crowd for 40+ years. Every time that theme is adopted, it screams that the person has no idea what he's doing, of basic normalcy. If it happens it's minor and very brief. There are always legit top tier guys showing up, even if seemingly out of nowhere.
Tannehill has opportunity to become a good NFL quarterback. Right now he has a moderate W/L record and moderate YPA becuse that's exactly the level he's been playing at. Very familiar from his Texas A&M days, where he guided an exceptionally talented team with a huge power rating to 7-6 record as a senior. During that senior season Texas A&M was underdog only once, at Oklahoma. I'm not sure many fans realize that. Favored 12 times. Tannehill lost 5 times as favorite in one season, to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas State and Texas. Blown leads were the staple of those games. Frankly, I found them somewhat amusing, because I'm primarily a first half bettor in regular season college football. I didn't mind this kid named Ryan Tannehill tensing up and surrendering leads when he had already covered my bet in the first half. It's comforting, actually, like you stole a victory from an alliance that virtually every other Texas A&M bettor cursed and lost.
I had no idea we'd be drafting that kid with all the blown leads, and certainly not high in the first round.
So when we lose so often as favorite around here, including critical games late in the season, it's nothing new for Ryan Tannehill. He botched the vital game against Texas to end the 2011 regular season. That game carried frenzied significance for both teams because Texas A&M was bolting to the SEC beginning in 2012. That was already known. No more meetings for the forseeable. Bragging rights for who knows long were at stake. Texas fans stormed the field at College Station when Justin Tucker won that game with a last second field goal. Tannehill blew a 9 point halftime lead, including a pick six early in the third quarter that got Texas back into the game when their offense was doing nothing. Again, I remember it well because I already won the first half wager on Aggies -3.5.
Sigs mean nothing to me. I know the true odds. Once in a while the miracle shot is pulled off successfully, like Bubba Watson out of the trees at Augusta. Just don't kid yourself regarding the probability. That's what I have no respect for. Adjustments are fine as long as they are recognized for the percentage attached. Ever since I joined this forum in 2005 it's stood out to me that the sharpest guys have an understanding of real world probability, but the larger slice just finds a happy number in the wind, like 7000 yards for Dan Marino in today's NFL, and generally makes a parody of themselves without realizing it.