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Najee Harris

This concept of "value" is about the contract for a drafted player vs what you would pay for proven talent in the FA market.

If you can "buy" Derrick Henry for a year for less than I have to pay the 18th pick why would I draft a RB at 18? Now I'm not saying you could buy Henry cheaper, just making an example.

FWIW I'd say the 18th pick will get a 7.1M signing bonus and a 13.4M fully guaranteed 4 year contract and the 6th pick will get a 16M signing bonus and a 25.6M fully guaranteed 4 year contract.

Value wise it makes more sense to take a RB at 6 than a TE. Currently there are 7 RB's making between 16 and 12M per year. There are 4 TE's making between 15 and 12.5M (and I'd say two of them are because the Pats overpaid a lot). Waller is a comp for Pitts and he got a 4 year 30M contract with 16.5M guaranteed. Pitts at 6 would make what Waller was guaranteed the second he signed and you'd still owe him another 10M if you cut him.
Sooo we should take a RB @ #6? No. Pass.
 
No I'm not saying we should take a RB at 6 and you darn well know it.

What you don't want to hear is it is even worse to take a TE at 6. Doesn't matter much if you want to call your TE another name like WR/TE. Truth is those type of TE's are worth less, not more.
 
No I'm not saying we should take a RB at 6 and you darn well know it.

What you don't want to hear is it is even worse to take a TE at 6. Doesn't matter much if you want to call your TE another name like WR/TE. Truth is those type of TE's are worth less, not more.
You're hilarious. :cheers: Cheers. :lol:
 
He does look slow on tape at times.

The fact that he chose not to do drills or run at his pro day makes it look like he’s hiding that lack of speed..
 
You're hilarious. :cheers: Cheers. :lol:
I mean... @Russ57 isnt making it up. Just think about what he’s saying- the top earning hb’s / te’s contracts vs where they are taken in the draft is what he’s discussing value wise... sure maybe Pitts resets the market down the road but for now, drafting him that high he will be paid among the top TEs right out the gate. (Not that that bothers me)
 
I mean... @Russ57 isnt making it up. Just think about what he’s saying- the top earning hb’s / te’s contracts vs where they are taken in the draft is what he’s discussing value wise... sure maybe Pitts resets the market down the road but for now, drafting him that high he will be paid among the top TEs right out the gate. (Not that that bothers me)
Game has pretty much drifted away from RBs similar to how the game has shifted to vertical + seam TEs... emphasis on passing.

On average, running backs aren't getting paid... and those that are simply do not justify their contract. When compared to their counterparts that receive big contracts at TE, I think TE justifies itself more. That alone makes me want a TE over a RB - if you get a good second contract, that gives you more value out of the initial pick.

You just get running backs in the 2nd. In the 3rd. Every single year. That will replace that 1st rounders production at a much much lower cost. People fall in love with names, and I get it - I did too with a few guys - but its purely about BPA. And RB isnt BPA in the 1st typically, especially this year.
 
Game has pretty much drifted away from RBs similar to how the game has shifted to vertical + seam TEs... emphasis on passing.

On average, running backs aren't getting paid... and those that are simply do not justify their contract. When compared to their counterparts that receive big contracts at TE, I think TE justifies itself more. That alone makes me want a TE over a RB - if you get a good second contract, that gives you more value out of the initial pick.

You just get running backs in the 2nd. In the 3rd. Every single year. People fall in love with names, and I get it, but its purely BPA. And RB isnt BPA.
Agreed.

You could convince me to take a runningback in the first round.... but it would have to be towards the very back of the round, after we had traded down and accumulated more picks moving back
 
Agreed.

You could convince me to take a runningback in the first round.... but it would have to be towards the very back of the round, after we had traded down and accumulated more picks moving back
Id absolutely be on board with a decent trade down - 18 to 22, in fact - for an additional 3rd and 6th rounder, something along those lines... and then use that 3rd for a running back.

Thats how much (or little) I value using high picks on running backs. I struggle really hard using a top 40 pick on them. But frankly, if we're all in on Tua and Harris is our reported clearcut #1 guy... his abilities translate with Tua well. We know this. I'll pay for that. Just use #22 on him, and appease me with a (Free) 3rd rounder speed demon WR, and a 6th rounder Tackle prospect
 
Id absolutely be on board with a decent trade down - 18 to 22, in fact - for an additional 3rd and 6th rounder, something along those lines... and then use that 3rd for a running back.

Thats how much (or little) I value using high picks on running backs. I struggle really hard using a top 40 pick on them. But frankly, if we're all in on Tua and Harris is our reported clearcut #1 guy... his abilities translate with Tua well. We know this. I'll pay for that. Just use #22 on him, and appease me with a (Free) 3rd rounder speed demon WR, and a 6th rounder Tackle prospect
Here's what I'd like to see:

18 down to 22-26 or so. Pick up as much as possible (a second would be nice, but unlikely, 3rd/6th seems reasonable) ... and that 20s pick can be whatever, and use 36 on a runningback (pray one is within range) ... IF need be use some of those extra later picks to jump a team. If any of the top 3, probably williams, who I love anyways, make it to the 2nd round - trade up with the Jags! They have James Robinson who was phenomenal as a rookie, and it allows us to jump the Jets, and anyone else looking for a rb
 
Travis, to add insult to injury, consider that the TE position is a notoriously difficult transition. It is virtually guaranteed Pitts won't contribute like a top rated FA tight end would in his first year. Yet we would likely be paying him about 20M total in that first year.

From a purely financial point of view, it makes far more sense to draft Sewell. After all, look at what we turned Tunsil into. Only certain positions net that type of trade value.

Now again, I am not saying we shouldn't draft Pitts or that we should draft Sewell. I am just trying to point out what some guys mean when they talk about value in a draft pick.

A perennial playoff contender can afford to ignore value to obtain an elite player. It isn't such a smart move for a team that is in the process of rebuilding.

So personally I'd be very surprised if we drafted TE/RB/IOL in the first.
 
Its not virtually guaranteed. Whatsoever. If you are going to rely on statistics, you can't generalize or "round up", that completely voids the argument imo.

Statistics tell me that you're more likely to find a superbowl winning QB outside of the top 3 and yet... I'd still take Trevor Lawrence number 1.
 
If Cincy doesn’t take Sewell @5 they will just be letting yet another QB fall by the stake. Their O-line was abysmal last season. Spending the number 5 pick on a WR to be splashy when you line is like Swiss cheese is stupid. Atl needs Defense or a QB at 4 to sit behind Ryan and learn.
 
Id absolutely be on board with a decent trade down - 18 to 22, in fact - for an additional 3rd and 6th rounder, something along those lines... and then use that 3rd for a running back.

Thats how much (or little) I value using high picks on running backs. I struggle really hard using a top 40 pick on them. But frankly, if we're all in on Tua and Harris is our reported clearcut #1 guy... his abilities translate with Tua well. We know this. I'll pay for that. Just use #22 on him, and appease me with a (Free) 3rd rounder speed demon WR, and a 6th rounder Tackle prospect
This I agree with 100%
 
No chance we take a RB at 18. Only two RB's in first round last two years. Jacobs at 24 and CEH at 32 last year. I love Harris but he ain't going at 18.
 
Value, Smalue!!! I think the point will be moot because Najee Harris won't get to #18, if we lose Harris it would be wise to forget all the rhetoric and make Travis Etienne a Miami Dolphin. For those that would say it's a passing league, Harris and Etienne become big parts of your passing game. Defenses have to account for guys like Harris and Etienne but only if you wait until the second round to draft them, you MUST get VALUE or Kiper will give your draft a D plus!! I'm joking around but I believe I'm right when I say Harris and Etienne both go in the first round. It's paralysis by over analysis that leads to abject failures like NOT snagging a blue chip RB in last year's draft. I stand by the opinion that we would have made the playoffs if we had one of the studs we passed on. For me the players that get you to the post season have value. Get them when you can and don't get all hung up on worrying about if a player is a reach. It's ok, he'll be reaching for the Lombardy Trophy one day in a Dolphin uniform!! Kiper would say, " it was still a reach!!" What a tool the guy has turned into, he's like a cartoon version of his old self. You can enjoy the guy but don't listen to the guy! I would have Gator Boy as my GM way before Kiper!! He'd draft us Pitts and Toney and we'd be rocking and rolling!!
 
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