I think Burrow is the clear 1st pick but I will join the minority saying he isnt some transcendent talent. There are several factors here people will ignore or in their mind easily explain away. He is athletic and determined but I am always wary of a 23/24 year old guy dominating college teams. His situation is far different and sort of reminds me of Chris Winkie, not saying he is worth the same pick obviously but Older guys dominate college football. Look at some of the surprise teams on the past 15 years they are all loaded with 4th and 5th year seniors who are just grown men compared to 18/19 kids just getting their feet wet.
1. Burrow is a grad transfer, he takes 1 class and can use the rest of his day studying film and breaking down plays. While other guys are taking 4-5 classes and trying to balance it all. That preparation gap closes in the NFL. Coaching staffs put in 100+ hours in a week on how to slow you down or stop you. It will be interesting to see him adjust.
2. Joe Brady is an NFL guy. The concepts and system he runs is new and way above the college defense capabilities. With no tape on the system coordinators are simply treading water trying to score and keep up. You saw this with Saban when he came back from the NFL with a far more complex defense and for like 5 straight years allowed under 10 points a game; I mean nobody could score on them. It balanced back out as the offenses got more explosive throughout college.
3. He has at least 4 NFL players at the skill positions, everyone kills Tua for his receiver talent but Burrow is THE MAN even though he has elite talent around him as well. Hell people say Fromm is trash because his line is good and he doesnt tear it up. Fromm has NFL running backs but no one catching a pass is elite at UGA, but people kill him.
4. Burrow has an average NFL arm, its measured objectively and does not have all the throws in his repertoire, last night his guys made a number of great plays for him, which you need at any level but you have to be able to make some throws on timing and rhythm that you just dont see from him. Tua, Herbert, Love and Fromm all have stronger arms that Burrow.
5. His escapability was on point but NFL guys dont miss like 18/19 year old kids who will never play above this current level.
But an Ohio kid and an Ohio team picking #1 its a lock unless he gets hurt during workouts, but the Bengals are a bad franchise and he will likely never reach an elite level in the NFL. Sad for him; if you get him receiving talent like Miami and spend time building the line you would see closer to this level but with the cheap AF Bengals and a coach who has shown no ability to coach up talent or create a good game plan he will end up like David Carr, beat up and never able to access his talent.