Nfl Qb Position: Absolute Or Relative? | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Nfl Qb Position: Absolute Or Relative?

Ray R said:
After carefully reading and analyzing your response I have been able to successfully conclude that you are:

RONG!!!
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Have you ever played sports? Been on a team? How do you know who is the best, who is better, how do the coaches know who to play? Do they spread the beans on a table, draw straws, roll the dice, and see who is lucky?
 
LargoFin said:
This guy!?

We only care about rookie contract, first four years. We do not care about their careers and HoF. We only care about whether they can take us to the championship game and help us win, on a rookie contract.

6-3 and over quarterbacks have appeared significantly more times in a championship game than 6-2 and smaller quarterbacks. More importantly, there have been significantly more 6-3 and over quarterbacks who appeared in a championship game on a rookie contract, which is the only thing we care about since they are only getting a rookie contract. They are not getting a HoF contract or a 15 year contract.

CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY

In the last 15 years, there have been 60 championship game quarterbacks (AFC and NFC).
Of those 60 appearances:

7/60 have been under 6-2: (5 different QBs)
2004 Michael Vick
2006 Drew Brees
2006 Rex Grossman
2009 Drew Brees
2013 Russ Wilson
2014 Russ Wilson
2017 Case Keenum


13/60 were 6-2: (8 different QBs)
2004 Donovan McNabb
2005 Jake Delhomme
2005 Jake Plummer
2007 Brett Favre
2008 Donovan McNabb
2008 Kurt Warner
2009 Brett Favre
2009 Mark Sanchez
2010 Mark Sanchez
2010 Aaron Rodgers
2014 Aaron Rodgers
2016 Aaron Rodgers
2018 Patrick Mahomes


The rest, 40/60 appearances were with QBs 6-3 and over. (17 diiferent quarterbacks)
Payton Manning
Tom Brady
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Hasselbeck
Eli Manning
Phillip Rivers
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
Matt Ryan
Colin Kapernick
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Carson Palmer
Blake Bortles
Nick Foles
Jared Goff


Seventeen is more than thirteen and forty is significantly more than twenty appearances.


ROOKIE CONTRACTS (First four seasons)

Of the 30 quarterbacks who appeared in a championship game in last 15 years, 5/13 who were 6-2 and smaller did that on a rookie contract: Mike Vick, Rex Grossman, Russell Wilson, Mark Sanchez, Pat Mahomes.

2/5 (2/13, 2/30) went to the SB in first four years: Rex Grossman, Russell Wilson
1/5 (1/13, 1/30) won the SB in first four years: Russell Wilson.

Of the 30 quarterbacks who appeared in a championship game in last 15 years, 8/17 who were 6-3 and taller did that on a rookie contract, and they are all bolded above.

5/8 (5/17, 5/30) went to the SB in first four years: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Colin Kapernick, Jared Goff.

2/8 (2/17, 2/30) won the SB in first four years: Ben and Eli.


SUMMARY

Quarterbacks who are 6-3 and taller appeared in championship game 40 times in 60 opportunities. There were 17 of those quarterbacks, and of those 17 quarterbacks 8 did it on a rookie contract. Five of those eight quarterbacks went on to play in a superbowl on a rookie contract, and two of those won the superbowl.

Quarterbacks who are 6-3 and taller have 100% better success rate (twice as good) in last 15 years of playing in and winning championship games on a rookie contract.
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Excellent post Largo.

I would also note, not a lot of scrambling types. There are a few, but most are pocket QBs.

Before ppl start saying so and so can run. I realize they can, but it not their bread, and butter.
 
LargoFin said:
What does it mean then? Lucky means gambling, rolling the dice.
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It's being lucky rather than good. You strive to be good but you'd rather be lucky.

Would you care if Grier blindfolded threw a dart at photos of QBs in the draft this year and the one he hit becomes a franchise QB?

Look at my best friend- 34, nonsmoker, lung cancer stage 4. He's not just a good friend, he's a great person.

In all walks of life, Largo, it's better to be lucky than good.
 
LargoFin said:
Have you ever played sports? Been on a team? How do you know who is the best, who is better, how do the coaches know who to play? Do they spread the beans on a table, draw straws, roll the dice, and see who is lucky?
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That doesn't help your argument. You know who the best is by what you see on the field. This would take all of the juice out of the measurements debate.

And that is exactly what makes the draft the roll of the dice that it is. You've never seen these guys run with the big dawgs and you won't know who or what you've got until they do.
 
U do need QB in this range 1-15.qb who can handle pressure. When game on line.
 
marino13zach54 said:
That doesn't help your argument. You know who the best is by what you see on the field. This would take all of the juice out of the measurements debate..
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No, that's not how it is. Because on the field you see measurables too, you see athleticism, not just the skill. You can get the best technique at beating tackles as an edge rusher, but if you are not quick enough, it's useless. This is the last I will wrte on this subject because it is getting stupid.
You do not roll the dice, that's why people are employed, not monkeys.
 
i would say that it is essential to not have a CHOKER for your QB.
someone who can win as opposed to having pretty statistics.
 
Good coaches win CONSISTENTLY with inferior talent.

Bad coaches LOSE consistently with superior talent. :p

I'm sure everyone here has heard that old saying by Bum Phillips

As for QBz. Seems like a lot of people now-a-days can't really judge talent very well.

Good QB's rise when the pressure goes up, they make the HARD 3rd down conversions in critical games at critical times.

You know...

All the plays we are used to seeing NOT get made on the field around here.

It's not just about stats and arm talent.
 
marino13zach54 said:
Dude, if only comparing the other QBs he mentioned please tell me you loved Thill. Lol
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I found it disingenuous to bring poor Patty White into the mix

so I made an executive decision and therefore considered Thill

as an independent statement...

Perhaps

my bad.

I'll be more diligent in the future.

Thanks!

BNF
 
LargoFin said:
Have you ever played sports? Been on a team? How do you know who is the best, who is better, how do the coaches know who to play? Do they spread the beans on a table, draw straws, roll the dice, and see who is lucky?
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Have you ever played sports? Yes. Football & Cross Country (2 mile runs) & Pistol Shooting & Rifle Shooting. Nice try at intimidation, but it failed.

Been on a team? Yes. Jr. H.S. Football & H.S. Cross Country and in my old age I competed on MCL Detachment #1193's in the Marine Corps Postal League. The 2006 results were that we won the National Champions. This is a 25 yard pistol shooting competition and my team scored 2716 out of a possible 3000 with 62 "X" ring hits. Not bad for a bunch of old guys & a gal.
Nice try at intimidation, but it failed.

How do you know who is the best... The results tell you that.
Your a Dolphins fan and don't already know that?

Who is better... The results tell you that too.
Your a Dolphins fan and don't already know that?

How do the coaches know who to play? Experience, judgment and most importantly, having been selected for their past results.
Your a Dolphins fan and don't already know that?

Do they spread the beans on a table, draw straws, roll the dice, and see who is lucky?
Definition of luck:
1) a force that brings good fortune or adversity.
2) the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual.

Note: there is no reference to beans or drawing straws or rolling dice. That is because they only make a difference based on personnel interpretation. This means:
You can't plan for luck but you can be prepared to take advantage of it when it occurs.

Now are you talking about the players or the coaches or both? I guess it doesn't make any difference because the answer to "...see who is lucky" is No.

You analyze the results of your actions.
You recognize that an opponent slipping and missing a tackle is good luck for your team. You also recognize that having a player carrying the ball past the guy that slipped is due to game preparation (the player was in the right place) when his opponent slipped, which was our good luck. This agrees with an old saying. That old saying is that "luck favors the prepared".

The results are always a final compilation of the skill, preparedness and the luck (good or bad) of a person or team. You can't control luck, but you can always be ready to take advantage of it. If you are prepared you can take advantage of luck. If you are not prepared, luck will take advantage of you.
 
"Luck" is an interesting concept...

If you believe all of reality/life is a confluence of tendencies and probabilities
it's rather predictable that one will periodically experience a "random event
which brings forth a positive outcome." I think Dolphinsland could use one
of those -- and statistically speaking we may be overdue!

My personal experience has shown that "luck" can be a rather fickle partner
and what seems "lucky" at first may turn rather unfortunate with time. Yet
none of this nonsense is important unless and until we bag a trophy QB!

The good news is (based on the general consensus of our illustrious draft gurus
and assorted mavens) there will be more than one of those rascals in yonder
2020 draft! If that projection is accurate -- then there's certainly the possibility
we can improve our "luck" by staying focused on the long term and therefore
forgoing the immediate gratification so many of us crave...

Again. More nonsense. I want to win championships in full retrospective color
at this point! I mean at this point 01-13-1974 seems like several lifetimes ago!
And ever since 01-20-1985 we've been completely shutout of the championship
party.

Well at least we didn't lose 4 SBs in a row like those poor Buffalo Bills.

Talk about bad luck!

:)
 
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