Our Future Drafts | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Our Future Drafts

ChambersWI said:


So in the next 2 years as of right now we have 10 draft picks in the top 3 rounds. To go along with that the next to draft classes are expected to be loaded. So here are the points I want to use for hopefully a good debate. Chris Grier has done a great job of clearing up cap space and gaining draft picks, but can he be trusted with the picks? That is what we will soon find out. Honestly, with the amount of picks we will have, even being slightly competent should add some building blocks.

Be frustrated in the moment, but enjoy the process
Click to expand...

Wont be enjoyable if we waste the picks. Acquiring them is a lot easier than investing them
 
SkapePhin said:
As this shows, I don't think he's done a great job at selecting talent (although a lot of people question who was making what picks.)

Grier's Drafts

2016:
Laremy Tunsil (R1) - TRADED for high draft picks
Xavien Howard (R2) - Pro Bowl
Kenyan Drake (R3) - Splitting time at RB
Leonte Caroo (R3) - GONE [Out of the League]
Jakeem Grant (R6) - Starter. Resigned to multi-year deal
Jordan Lucas (R6) - GONE [KC]
Brandon Doughty (R7) - GONE [Out of the League]
Thomas Duarte (R7) - GONE [Out of the League]

2017:
Charles Harris (R1) - Very mediocre starter
Raekwon McMillain (R2) - Very mediocre starter
Cordrea Tankersley (R3) - Only really played 1 season, currently on PUP list
Isaac Asiata (R5) - GONE [Out of the League]
Davon Godchaux (R5) - Mediocre starter
Vincent Taylor (R6) - GONE [Currently Unsigned]
Isaiah Ford (R7) - Practice Squad

2018:
Minkah Fitzpatrick (R1) - TRADED for Pitt 1st Rd Pick
Mike Gesicki (R2) - Very mediocre starter
Jerome Baker (R3) - Promising starter
Durham Smyth (R4) - Role player
Kalen Ballage (R4) - Splitting time at RB
Cornell Armstrong (R6) - GONE [Unsigned]
Quentin Polling (R7) - GONE [Unsigned]
Jason Sanders (R8) - Starter

2019:
Christian Wilkins (R1) - In Starting Rotation
[Josh Rosen] (R2) - Backup. Doesn't seem to be in plan for future
Michael Deiter (R3) - Starter
Andrew Van Ginkel (R5) - Injured for the Season
Isaiah Prince (R6) - Backup. Has looked atrocious
Chandler Cox (R7) - Blocking FB
Myles Gaskin (R7) - Backup - 5th String
HONORABLE MENTION - Preston Williams (UFA) - Most promising rookie on the team

Color Code:
Purple = Elite Player
Blue = Good Player Traded Away
Green = Solid Player
Yellow = Average Player
Red = Garbage Player


His best draft was 2016 and he only really got 3 players out of it, 1 of which he already flipped for more lottery tickets. It was also the only draft he got a pro bowl player out of. 2017 was horrid. 2018 looks pretty bad at the moment too because the one good player you got out of it was just traded for essentially a deferred lottery ticket at around the same position. Might just end up with a decent LB and a kicker out of that draft. 2019 way too early to tell, but at the moment only looks like Wilkins and Deiter have any kind of longterm future with the team. That isn't a great track record.

That being said, one thing I really do like about Grier's approach vs when Tannenbaum was leading the team is that he maximizes his opportunities with draft picks. T-bum would throw out picks like he was in the champagne room to the point he really only got around 5 selections. Grier is taking an approach similar to Jimmy Johnson.

I was looking at JJ's Dolphins drafts earlier:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1996&year_max=1999&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&team_id=mia&pos[]=qb&pos[]=rb&pos[]=wr&pos[]=te&pos[]=e&pos[]=t&pos[]=g&pos[]=c&pos[]=ol&pos[]=dt&pos[]=de&pos[]=dl&pos[]=ilb&pos[]=olb&pos[]=lb&pos[]=cb&pos[]=s&pos[]=db&pos[]=k&pos[]=p&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default#results::none

He came into every draft with a ton of draft capital. While he drafted a lot of stinkers, he always came away with at least 2 elite players who would go on to become the foundation of the team (specifically defense) which would carry them for almost a decade.

So even though Grier's drafts haven't set the world on fire, the approach may lead to a higher hit rate of elite players being drafted than we've seen in the past just due to the more tickets in the raffle we have. More tickets = more chances to win.

That being said, I really don't like the way Grier is approaching jettisoning proven young talent from recent drafts for more lottery tickets. Those players were supposed to be foundational pieces. We spent time and energy in developing them. They could have been seasoned when a QB gets here making the transition to playoff team easier and quicker. But now the entire timetable has been set back by essentially deferring those picks with another roll of the dice.

I hope, if we retain Grier, he uses this haul to flip for future picks to keep his annual draft haul rather large like JJ did.
Click to expand...

Neither Vincent Taylor nor Cornell Armstrong are unsigned.
 
SkapePhin said:
With this haul, if we don't leave this draft with at least one perrennial pro bowler it will have been a failure. This team has been lacking elite players for far too long. For almost a decade, it was Cam Wake and nothing else. Now its Xavien and nothing else. Need to hit on some game changers.

Obviously QB is the big one, but we also need to build an identity with some elite players. This has been one of the most boring organizations in the NFL once Ricky left and JJ's all-stars retired.
Click to expand...

Agree. Saw an article a while showing only about 40% of top 5 picks make the Pro Bowl at least once. The rest are average or worse. Yet, fans seem to think a team has failed if EVERY ONE of their R1 picks (1 > 32) don't become elite. Given that, getting "one perrennial pro bowler" and a couple of average guys would be a good draft.

Miami did hit on Tunsil and, maybe, Minkah. Just because they're not on the team doesn't mean they weren't hits.
Tangetially, Turner and Hewitt are starting for other teams, so just maybe coaching has something to do with it
 
uk_dolfan said:
Wont be enjoyable if we waste the picks. Acquiring them is a lot easier than investing them
Click to expand...

Then why hasn't Miami acquired them for the past 20 years? In that time frame, the Dolphins have had MORE than four picks in the first four rounds only five times. They've had FEWER than four picks nine times.

Ya sure as hell aren't going to hit on picks that you don't have.

Edit: To be fair, one of those nine times was this past year, and resulted in a future pick and Josh Rosen.
 
The Goat said:
Then why hasn't Miami acquired them for the past 20 years? In that time frame, the Dolphins have had MORE than four picks in the first four rounds only five times. They've had FEWER than four picks nine times.

Ya sure as hell aren't going to hit on picks that you don't have.

Edit: To be fair, one of those nine times was this past year, and resulted in a future pick and Josh Rosen.
Click to expand...

Beasley brought up the same thing...the issue isn't bad drafting, it is not enough drafting.
 
The Goat said:
What I don't understand is how everyone is using what they THINK will happen in next year's draft to view the draft picks this FO now has acquired negatively, and why so many people are clamoring for Chris Grier's head SEVEN MONTHS before the draft.

The one thing that I found most encouraging this past offseason is that nobody in the front office tried to portray themselves as the smartest guy in the room. We saw how well that worked for the previous two seasons, and we see how well that's working in New York. The Jets are a freaking disaster, they're not much better than the Fins, and the Fins are setting themselves up to lose ON PURPOSE.

Grier hired McKenzie, Allen, and Caldwell as assistants...I doubt he did that just to have them hang out. I'm certain they're aware of what they have now. IF the Fins end up with 3 picks in the top half of the draft next year and two picks in the top half of 2021, this can set up the team very, very well for a good 4-5 years in the draft through trade backs. They won't have to hit on every single one of their picks, they just can't miss on all of them.

This is about more than just getting Tua at this point.
Click to expand...

Unless "our guy" is sitting there at these picks, we should be looking to trade back and accumulate as much draft capital as possible. The draft is a numbers game imo. When really good FO's miss on half their picks, that tells you to increase the numerator...
 
I always loved the Jimmy Johnson theory of drafting. Get as many picks as possible. If you're only going to hit of half your picks then it's beter to have 12 picks than 6. Very simple really.

#2- Go for what really matters first. Pass offense(QB,WR,OT) and pass defense(DE,Corner,ball hawk Safety)
get the rest after.
 
SkapePhin said:
The thought that Grier, the lifelong scout and talent evaluator, had nothing to do with the drafts HE RAN as part of the T-bum/Grier/Gase trifecta is the height of delusion...
Click to expand...

Again valid point. But as a counter point pet me ask you this. The two people who had the loudest voices in the war room were Tannenbaum and Terry Bradway neither of whom were known for their ability to identify talent. Now it will be Reggie McKenzie and Marvin Allen, both of whom are regarded as two of the best evaluators of college talent as well as Adam Engroff who is also considered a great scout.

So whether or not you trust Grier is fair the question now becomes do you trust Allen and McKenzie?
 
ChambersWI said:
Again valid point. But as a counter point pet me ask you this. The two people who had the loudest voices in the war room were Tannenbaum and Terry Bradway neither of whom were known for their ability to identify talent. Now it will be Reggie McKenzie and Marvin Allen, both of whom are regarded as two of the best evaluators of college talent as well as Adam Engroff who is also considered a great scout.

So whether or not you trust Grier is fair the question now becomes do you trust Allen and McKenzie?
Click to expand...

This is really the optimism I have if we keep Grier around. I think the voices he has around now are better than before.

I'm really 50/50 on Grier. I like how he maximizes draft capital. I think that is the most positive thing a GM has done around here in decades. But I'm still hesitant that he can draft the right players with those picks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom