PFF: Re-Rank Top QBs from 2020 NFL Draft Class

[Digital]

I too respect your opinion. My point in this discussion is that Tua is the Dolphins QB and I feel it is far too early to know how his career will turn out. The Dolphins had no opportunity to draft Burrow so eventually in the years to come the argument will be if the Dolphins should have drafted Herbert or Tua at 5.

As I stated above, I would have been happy with either Tua or Herbert in the draft. This past season Herbert obviously played well in most of his starts but he also had games he didn’t play well in and yet he never was pulled from the game. He was allowed to play through the ups and downs because his team wasn’t in the playoff race. He also wasn’t forced to play with a lineup of WR’s in several games who were the teams 5th or 6th WR’s on the roster as well as WR’s who were practice squad players during the week and only promoted because of injuries.

I congratulate Herbert for having a very good rookie season but the reality is Tua is the QB of the Dolphins and I am not the least bit disappointed in Tua being the QB of the Dolphins instead of Herbert. Perhaps I will feel differently 3 or 4 years from now if Herbert becomes a consistent pro bowl caliber QB and Tua is just an average NFL QB but right now I am happy to ride with Tua and see how far he can take this team.

I agree with all of these things. Glad to see we found common ground. :)

 

[BlueFin]

Well the three of them are playing out about how I predicted. IMHO, by far the highest ceiling guy in the QB class was Justin Herbert and I said it many times (despite the sea of naysayers). But the most skilled guy is Joe Burrow. Tua is a solid QB who makes good decisions and is generally accurate, but he's not the type of guy who can put the team on his shoulders. He will be limited by his arm, and he's not an elite athlete, elite size, or an elite arm talent. He's a good solid player, who will be an excellent game manager. He has great character and is a great person. But at the top of the draft, people want sky high ceilings, and that's just not who he is.

Yes...and that’s why I favored the other two....

Tua had tremendous help at Alabama...(see Mac Jones)...with the injury concerns Tua was clearly QB3 or QB4 in the previous draft!

 

[Feverdream]

I do think that it is worth pointing out that the two most senior QBs in the NFL were both considered to be physically underwhelming prospects...

...and this goes back to the pre-draft hype on Tua. His strengths were said to be processing speed, intelligence, and work ethic... which match up with Brees and Brady. I'm not about to write off a young, hardworking guy after just one year; if nothing else, he should be able to see where he needs to improve and should be willing to spend the offseason rebuilding his body and focusing on film work.

I'm optimistic.

 

[Dolphinitis]

His pocket presence stood out? Is this a comedy article?

 

[pmj]

Also thought it was a good article. There is a million posts that don’t make the point they and NPB did, namely that for this team, playing it safe and even pulling him were things that the Bengals and Chargers weren’t going to do. They let the rookies take their lumps. We were trying to win. It doesnt seem fair to point out one half against Buff as if that’s always what would happen if the offense opened up. That also doesn’t mean the O would have been magic, just that that is the normal process and volume stats like yards were never going to be something with what we were asking.

With that said, he has work to do and personnel has to improve to eval. Quite frankly, it could be a while. Mayfield had a worse 2nd year and Wentz fell off a cliff.

 

[MrChadRico]

I do think that it is worth pointing out that the two most senior QBs in the NFL were both considered to be physically underwhelming prospects...

...and this goes back to the pre-draft hype on Tua. His strengths were said to be processing speed, intelligence, and work ethic... which match up with Brees and Brady. I'm not about to write off a young, hardworking guy after just one year; if nothing else, he should be able to see where he needs to improve and should be willing to spend the offseason rebuilding his body and focusing on film work.

I'm optimistic.

100% agree with this! I mean its perfect logic...
. Still I trade for Watson if given the chance.

I'll be happy either way honestly. Tua will be good, Watson is just already good.

 

[Digital]

Interesting, Is Justin Herbert the guy that can put a team on his shoulder and win? If so, What happened this season? I mean he had more attempts and a billion yards..Yet?

What happens if he played in Miami under the exact same circumstances?

Well considering what the questions were for Herbert coming into this season, it's very easy to say that the doubting scouts were wrong. Everyone knew he had the tremendous physical attributes, but they all questioned his skill. Everyone except maybe Chris Simms and Paul Bermeister seemed to discount the crappy Oregon offense. So when Herbert dropped into the NFL and had great success, most of those analysts who predicted he would be a project at best were proven wrong. Yes, like most rookies, he had some bumps in the road, like when the Dolphins played to tendencies and trapped him into throwing at Xavien Howard, who outmuscled the WR and stole an INT. Bad decision from the rookie to make that throw ... but he didn't have nearly as many bad decisions as people expected.

To your question about putting a team on his shoulder, yes, Justin Herbert single-handedly put the team on his shoulder multiple times as a rookie, producing lots of points. With that defense having a healthy Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, and Derwin James, I suspect Herbert wins more of those games. Moving forward, it sure looks like Herbert can carry a team and lead his offense to scoring points. The defense ... that's out of his control. Maybe with a new coaching staff they can fix that. If not, having better luck with health should definitely help.

Is Tua responsible for our wins ? In part, yes. But we started our win streak under Fitz, and he was part of our success too. But the largest part of our win streak was the emergence of our defense as dominant, and Tua's good decision making and avoiding of INT's helped us win those games. For a defensively dominant team--which is exactly what we were when we won--having a QB who doesn't throw INT's is huge. Fitz was the better QB, but Tua was the safer QB, and that is incredibly rare in a rookie.

Herbert didn't have the luxury of a dominant defense constantly taking the ball away and giving him possession while ahead in the game. The Dolphins defense not only stopped the opposition and created takeaways, in the first two games Tua played they also actually scored. That is rare. In Tua's first start, the special teams scored as well. Both the special teams score and the defensive score were 80+ yard plays and huge momentum swingers. Herbert simply didn't have that kind of a defense.

IMHO, if Herbert played in Miami we would have won at least as many games, and definitely scored more points against the Bills. But, Herbert would have thrown more INT's as well, so the final record may have been the same or possibly more or less wins. Tough to say. But, we would have scored more points against Buffalo, I'm confident of that.

Can we be confident that Herbert can put the team on his shoulders? IMHO, yes, because he has already shown he can put up points against lots of NFL defenses. Can we be confident that Tua can put the team on his shoulders? IMHO, no, because while he had encouraging games against Kansas City and Arizona, he hasn't really shown he can score a lot of points, nor has he shown he can score on any defense. What he has shown is that when our defense is dominant, he can manage the game very well and protect the ball.

Next year Tua's hip should be fully healed. That will allow him to torque his hips and carry throwing power from his base through his hips and arms and result in better velocity on the ball. He should also have more confidence in his body, because the psychological aspect of this kind of injury often lingers past the physical ailment. Having had reconstructive knee surgery myself, I have sympathy for Tua enduring that hip injury.

 

[Feverdream]

Watson is clearly a top 5 talent, but the truth of it is that Houston would only move him if they are offered a boatload of picks or if Watson completely melts down in the media (in which case, I wouldn't want him).

What we have is Tua, and while I personally would rather have Watson, or even Herbert, I am happy with Tua for now. He may well improve just as Drew Brees did... the only part that worries me, is that for his selection to make sense, he pretty much has to improve to that level.

I'm not going to say, 'no' to Watson, but the chances that Houston would even consider trading him to the same team who ripped them off on the Tunsil trade is pretty minimal.

 

[Digital]

I do think that it is worth pointing out that the two most senior QBs in the NFL were both considered to be physically underwhelming prospects...

...and this goes back to the pre-draft hype on Tua. His strengths were said to be processing speed, intelligence, and work ethic... which match up with Brees and Brady. I'm not about to write off a young, hardworking guy after just one year; if nothing else, he should be able to see where he needs to improve and should be willing to spend the offseason rebuilding his body and focusing on film work.

I'm optimistic.

As to the Brees and Brady comparisons, what you say is correct to a point yes. But realize that Brees and Brady both had strong arms--with Brees having one of the strongest arms at his Combine. Brady as a prospect had the size and the arm, but he was unathletic and his body didn't look like he put much work into it. That changed and he has become incredibly fit and health-conscious. While Tua is Brees-sized at 6'0, Brady much bigger at 6'5. For comparison, the first few seconds of this video shows them shaking hands after the game this week.

 

[ANUFan]

Well considering what the questions were for Herbert coming into this season, it's very easy to say that the doubting scouts were wrong. Everyone knew he had the tremendous physical attributes, but they all questioned his skill. Everyone except maybe Chris Simms and Paul Bermeister seemed to discount the crappy Oregon offense. So when Herbert dropped into the NFL and had great success, most of those analysts who predicted he would be a project at best were proven wrong. Yes, like most rookies, he had some bumps in the road, like when the Dolphins played to tendencies and trapped him into throwing at Xavien Howard, who outmuscled the WR and stole an INT. Bad decision from the rookie to make that throw ... but he didn't have nearly as many bad decisions as people expected.

To your question about putting a team on his shoulder, yes, Justin Herbert single-handedly put the team on his shoulder multiple times as a rookie, producing lots of points. With that defense having a healthy Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, and Derwin James, I suspect Herbert wins more of those games. Moving forward, it sure looks like Herbert can carry a team and lead his offense to scoring points. The defense ... that's out of his control. Maybe with a new coaching staff they can fix that. If not, having better luck with health should definitely help.

Is Tua responsible for our wins ? In part, yes. But we started our win streak under Fitz, and he was part of our success too. But the largest part of our win streak was the emergence of our defense as dominant, and Tua's good decision making and avoiding of INT's helped us win those games. For a defensively dominant team--which is exactly what we were when we won--having a QB who doesn't throw INT's is huge. Fitz was the better QB, but Tua was the safer QB, and that is incredibly rare in a rookie.

Herbert didn't have the luxury of a dominant defense constantly taking the ball away and giving him possession while ahead in the game. The Dolphins defense not only stopped the opposition and created takeaways, in the first two games Tua played they also actually scored. That is rare. In Tua's first start, the special teams scored as well. Both the special teams score and the defensive score were 80+ yard plays and huge momentum swingers. Herbert simply didn't have that kind of a defense.

IMHO, if Herbert played in Miami we would have won at least as many games, and definitely scored more points against the Bills. But, Herbert would have thrown more INT's as well, so the final record may have been the same or possibly more or less wins. Tough to say. But, we would have scored more points against Buffalo, I'm confident of that.

Can we be confident that Herbert can put the team on his shoulders? IMHO, yes, because he has already shown he can put up points against lots of NFL defenses. Can we be confident that Tua can put the team on his shoulders? IMHO, no, because while he had encouraging games against Kansas City and Arizona, he hasn't really shown he can score a lot of points, nor has he shown he can score on any defense. What he has shown is that when our defense is dominant, he can manage the game very well and protect the ball.

Next year Tua's hip should be fully healed. That will allow him to torque his hips and carry throwing power from his base through his hips and arms and result in better velocity on the ball. He should also have more confidence in his body, because the psychological aspect of this kind of injury often lingers past the physical ailment. Having had reconstructive knee surgery myself, I have sympathy for Tua enduring that hip injury.

What a cute attempt! All those words that basically says no to Herbert! The Chargers record is my proof. You haven’t offered anything beyond long paragraphs. Still love ya!

 

[Feverdream]

As to the Brees and Brady comparisons, what you say is correct to a point yes. But realize that Brees and Brady both had strong arms--with Brees having one of the strongest arms at his Combine. Brady as a prospect had the size and the arm, but he was unathletic and his body didn't look like he put much work into it. That changed and he has become incredibly fit and health-conscious. While Tua is Brees-sized at 6'0, Brady much bigger at 6'5. For comparison, the first few seconds of this video shows them shaking hands after the game this week.

Clearly... Tua's physical condition wasn't what it used to be before the injury... and that's understandable. Able to play is not the same as peak physical condition. I think Tua's arm strength was pretty good before the injury... less so, now.

I also think it'll be better next year with a year to work on conditioning, rather than rehab.

We'll see... but again, i am an optimist generally.

 

[hoops]

Drew Brees hasn’t had the same arm since he ripped that shoulder off and couldn’t throw a tennis ball.

and drew Brees wasn’t anywhere near the same level qb til he got to New Orleans. The chargers bailed on drew Brees and that was in the works prior to the shoulder shredding even.

there’s no reason to think tua can’t get to New Orleans level drew Brees arm level Id say although his arm has fallen off a good bit also of late but that’s a what 15 plus year career so it’s expected.

drew Brees arm has never faired all that well in elements also. Which is why they’ve underachieved a lot relative to one super bowl. Well at least of late his arm has shown up in a bad way in outdoor playoff settings.

he was throwing lolli pops a couple weeks ago. I’m sure the ribs added to that but still

 

[Bridgeburner]

This is from a newsletter I get from PFF. I think this a fair assessment of Tua and his situation. It is interesting that Herbert's strength currently are the deep throws, Burrows in the intermediate throws and Tua in the short throws. In my opinion, looking at every NFL game that Tua has played per the other post I had made recently, no question Tua had a good rookie season - had more good games than bad games - 6 games to 3 games. I don't think that is even debatable. We have to look at the entire body of work. Like the article says, no shame in Tua coming 3rd in this QB draft class in his rookie year. Per the article, Tua's rookie passing grade is higher than those of recent QBs like Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and Derek Carr.

Reranking the top quarterbacks from the 2020 draft class moving forward | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert all found themselves in starting roles in their rookie seasons. With the 2020 regular season in the rearview mirror, we can rerank the trio based on their performances.

www.pff.com

PFF also said Sam Darnold was the best QB in his class. Never trust anything from PFF ever.

 

[Digital]

What a cute attempt! All those words that basically says no to Herbert! The Chargers record is my proof. You haven’t offered anything beyond long paragraphs. Still love ya!

LOL, still love you too @ANUFan !

OK, well if you prefer numbers we can do that as well. With the exception of TD's and 4th Qtr. Comebacks I've tried to normalize this on a per-attempt or per-game basis as appropriate. I also didn't count Tua's first game because he only played a tiny bit, so that didn't seem fair to him.

	QB Rating​	Yards Per Attempt​	Throw Touchdowns​	Rushing TD's​	Offense Points/Game​	Throw Yards/Game​	4th Qtr. Comebacks​	INT Percentage​	Completion Pctg.​
Herbert	98.3​	7.3​	31​	5​	24.5​	289.1​	1​	1.7%​	66.6%​
Tua	87.1​	6.3​	11​	3​	22.5​	181.4​	2​	1.7%​	64.1%​
Winner	Herbert​	Herbert​	Herbert​	Herbert​	Herbert​	Herbert​	Tua​	TIED​	Herbert​

While Herbert comes out the winner on most categories, there are some notable points that jump out. The Offensive Points per game are very close (I deduced the 2 defensive TD's and 1 special teams TD from our game totals for the games Tua played, but not sure if the Chargers have any defensive or special teams TD's I should deduct, please help if anyone knows of any). While this is a slight edge to Herbert, his 45-0 loss to Denver and 16-21 loss to Carolina really pull down Herbert's average, while Tua was very steady with only a 19-7 win and 13-20 loss pulling his average down. For rookie QB's, they both generated points, with both QB's getting points in garbage time such as Herbert vs. Miami and Tua vs. Buffalo. While Herbert's 5 rushing TD's are more than Tua's 3 rushing TD's, given the number of games each started (15 vs. 9), their numbers were roughly similar. I was surprised to see that Herbert had the same INT Percentage that Tua had though, as I would generally say that Tua was the better decision maker and got fooled by NFL defenses less than Herbert on average. It is notable that Tua had more 4th Quarter Comebacks as well, although, Herbert did not really get the help from his defense that Tua did.

All in all, a case could be made for Tua, but if we go on just the statistics, I think they show Herbert had the better rookie season by a substantial margin. The Throw Yards/Game coupled with the almost 3x the number of Throw TD's seems to suggest that Herbert was better at putting his team on his shoulders. If you are still not convinced, maybe we should just agree to disagree? After all, discussing differing opinions is what this board is all about brother!

 

[Digital]

Clearly... Tua's physical condition wasn't what it used to be before the injury... and that's understandable. Able to play is not the same as peak physical condition. I think Tua's arm strength was pretty good before the injury... less so, now.

I also think it'll be better next year with a year to work on conditioning, rather than rehab.

We'll see... but again, i am an optimist generally.

I've been saying all season that his velocity is off, and people just accused me of being a hater, but IMHO, it's a valid reason why his velocity was low this year. I agree, next year we will see his velocity improve, which should up his confidence on throwing more intermediate passes over the middle. You're right, we'll just have to wait and see, and I also am an optimist, and the future is certainly bright when we go 10-6 in a rebuilding year with a rookie QB and can complain about anything, LOL!

Feels good to be far away from the days of 1-15.