PFF: Re-Rank Top QBs from 2020 NFL Draft Class

[Feverdream]

I've been saying all season that his velocity is off, and people just accused me of being a hater, but IMHO, it's a valid reason why his velocity was low this year. I agree, next year we will see his velocity improve, which should up his confidence on throwing more intermediate passes over the middle. You're right, we'll just have to wait and see, and I also am an optimist, and the future is certainly bright when we go 10-6 in a rebuilding year with a rookie QB and can complain about anything, LOL!

Feels good to be far away from the days of 1-15.

Never fear... I've gotten a lot of that too.

How come you ar douting ar savyer...

It's been fun.

Whee...

 

[NBP81]

This is also not even close. Burrow processes information quicker than anyone, is the most accurate, possesses the best timing, and has absorbed and mastered his playbook better than any of the other QB's. His injury cut short what was a brilliant rookie year showcasing his tremendous skills. No, he does not have the physical tools and will never be an Elway, Marino type QB, but he does look like he could be the next Joe Montana.

What are you basing this on? Surely you're not talking about their fisrst NFL season as they were pretty much the same in their rookie year... rating 87/89, comp% 64/65, TD% 3.8(Tua)/3.2%(Joe), INT%1.7%(Tua)/1.2%(Joe)... Now you're taking all this and using tremendous and "has absorbed and mastered his playbook better than anyone" when in fact... He really didnt, at least not to an extent were "its not even close"...

Herbert's Ceiling is Higher Because:
Far stronger arm, and tremendously higher arm talent. Bigger physical build including height and muscle

Bigger physical build incluiding height and muscle... Height and muscle? seriously? BTW... Batted passes at the LOS: Tua = 2 Herbert = 7

As a thrower, Tua is accurate ... but not dominantly so.

Tua is more accurate than both these guys combined.

but Brady is 6'5 and still has a strong arm.

Again with the "He's strong and tall" argument... That **** dont matter in the NFL... There's absolutely no evidence that taller QBs are more successful in the NFL. If Anything, once they get taller than 6'4", data suggest they're not as likely to succeed... But that doesnt fit your agenda so carry on...

This is your assesment of the Fins offense this season...

On offense we had an outstanding year from our tremendous TE group, with Gesicki having a break-out year, Shaheen proving the potential he had when he was drafted, and Smythe really contributing all around as well as being the leader in that room. Our OL had a breakthrough year as our OL coach got quality contributions from all three rookies--Jackson, Kindley and even Hunt, while also coalescing together veterans like Karras and Flowers to give us a pretty productive OL on the whole compared to most years here in Miami. What's more, our OL really looks poised to improve and succeed moving forward. We managed to get good performances from both QB's, one of which was a rookie. Then our WR corps--despite Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns declining to play from fear of Covid--managed another true #1 year from DaVante Parker, survived the Preston Williams injury and got quality contributions from Jakeem Grant and even Mack Hollins, as well as rookies Lynn Bowden Jr. and Malcolm Perry. We had some contributions from others (including Antonio Calloway and Isaiah Ford) who weren't even here for most of the year.

Im sorry this is downright delusional...

 

[SammySmif]

Tua beat Bellichek and ended the Pats season. And he did it with a skeleton crew.

Go look how Herbert did against the same coach. Ill give you a hint - it wasnt good.

we have a long way to go in determining who the best qb from this class. Unless you listen to the hot take noobs who just signed up recently to bash tua. But hopefully you have those clowns on ignore by now.

 

[Digital]

What are you basing this on? Surely you're not talking about their fisrst NFL season as they were pretty much the same in their rookie year... rating 87/89, comp% 64/65, TD% 3.8(Tua)/3.2%(Joe), INT%1.7%(Tua)/1.2%(Joe)... Now you're taking all this and using tremendous and "has absorbed and mastered his playbook better than anyone" when in fact... He really didnt, at least not to an extent were "its not even close"...

Bigger physical build incluiding height and muscle... Height and muscle? seriously? BTW... Batted passes at the LOS: Tua = 2 Herbert = 7

Tua is more accurate than both these guys combined.

Again with the "He's strong and tall" argument... That **** dont matter in the NFL... There's absolutely no evidence that taller QBs are more successful in the NFL. If Anything, once they get taller than 6'4", data suggest they're not as likely to succeed... But that doesnt fit your agenda so carry on...

OK, so Burrow's OL was worse than Tua's. Watching him play it is obvious how quickly he processed information. Burrow had a higher Yards Per Attempt, and while 6.7 vs. 6.3 doesn't sound like much, it is significant. Burrow's Average Yards Per Game were 268.8 vs. Tua's 181.4, which clearly shows that Tua was throwing less and/or shorter throws. It's a lot easier to throw when your defense produces takeaways and keeps opponents from scoring too much. When you're always playing catchup the pass rushers can pin their ears back and attack. Watching Burrow play you see he instantly reads defenses and processes information at a ridiculously fast rate. That may come with Tua, but he doesn't have it at Burrow's level yet.

So batted passes, that has nothing to do with vision downfield, and where Tua really did not shine was in his checkdown preference, so he threw fewer intermediate throws. It may be because he's not fully healed form his hip injury, but the fact remains, he didn't make those throws. Against Buffalo when he was forced to chase the game it was not pretty. By the way, Justin Herbert had 7 of 595 attempts batted down, whereas Tua had 2 of 290 attempts batted down, so even in that metric we need to be clear that 2 vs. 7 is misleading. So passes batted down shows up in both completion percentage (Herbert 66.6%, Tua 64.1%) and INT percentage (both tied at 1.7%), so if you're giving an advantage here, it would be a slight advantage to Herbert. But that's not the real issues with size. Taller QB's see the field better and tend to do better at downfield throws--which is where Herbert outplayed Tua--while the smaller QB's need to see between the OL more than the taller QB's do. The muscle is more of a metric of durability, and I'd say that both Tua and Herbert passed the rookie durability test as rookies, whereas Joe Burrow was injured and that was a major problem for the Bengals.

No, sorry, the statistics show that Tua was the least accurate of the three rookies. Tua's completion % was 64.1%, which was lower than Burrow's 65.3% and Herbert's 66.6% so while Tua may prove to be more accurate, as a rookie, he was the least accurate of the three. I am confident that Tua will prove to be an accurate QB. That is not an area where I really worry about Tua's game--particularly with the short passes.

So there are two primary types of QB's in the NFL, the old model is the big pocket passer who can take a hit, and I'd say guys like Big Ben and Phillip Rivers are examples of that type. The newer and more modern type of QB is more mobile and with that comes sacrificing some size, and I'd say guys like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson are examples of that type. A great example of that type would have been RGIII, but one lower body injury and he was never the same QB. Tua is not the elite runner those guys are, and he's not a big tough guy either. I do worry about his durability though. He didn't challenge the middle of the field on intermediate throws because of his low velocity, but maybe he's just not seeing it as well yet. Sometimes it takes a while for young QB's to adjust to the speed of the NFL and the complexity of defenses and playbooks. I suspect when he has a proper offseason (not a Covid-wierd one) and a fully healed hip, his velocity will return and his confidence and processing speed will improve significantly. But based on year one ... he's definitely behind the other guys, despite having by far the better defense and when he was having a bad game he was pulled. He will not have that luxury next year, so let's all hope he makes those improvements.

 

[superphin]

As to the Brees and Brady comparisons, what you say is correct to a point yes. But realize that Brees and Brady both had strong arms--with Brees having one of the strongest arms at his Combine. Brady as a prospect had the size and the arm, but he was unathletic and his body didn't look like he put much work into it. That changed and he has become incredibly fit and health-conscious. While Tua is Brees-sized at 6'0, Brady much bigger at 6'5. For comparison, the first few seconds of this video shows them shaking hands after the game this week.

Maybe Brady after a few NFL seasons was able to put on some weight/muscle along with improving his arm strength but Brady the prospect did not have good size unless you are solely referring to his height.

--Poor build
--Skinny
--Lacks great physical stature and strength
--Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush
--Lacks a really strong arm
--Can’t drive the ball downfield
--Does not throw a really tight spiral
--System-type player who can get exposed if forced to ad lib
--Gets knocked down easily

 

[NBP81]

OK, so Burrow's OL was worse than Tua's. Watching him play it is obvious how quickly he processed information. Burrow had a higher Yards Per Attempt, and while 6.7 vs. 6.3 doesn't sound like much, it is significant. Burrow's Average Yards Per Game were 268.8 vs. Tua's 181.4, which clearly shows that Tua was throwing less and/or shorter throws. It's a lot easier to throw when your defense produces takeaways and keeps opponents from scoring too much. When you're always playing catchup the pass rushers can pin their ears back and attack. Watching Burrow play you see he instantly reads defenses and processes information at a ridiculously fast rate. That may come with Tua, but he doesn't have it at Burrow's level yet.

So batted passes, that has nothing to do with vision downfield, and where Tua really did not shine was in his checkdown preference, so he threw fewer intermediate throws. It may be because he's not fully healed form his hip injury, but the fact remains, he didn't make those throws. Against Buffalo when he was forced to chase the game it was not pretty. By the way, Justin Herbert had 7 of 595 attempts batted down, whereas Tua had 2 of 290 attempts batted down, so even in that metric we need to be clear that 2 vs. 7 is misleading. So passes batted down shows up in both completion percentage (Herbert 66.6%, Tua 64.1%) and INT percentage (both tied at 1.7%), so if you're giving an advantage here, it would be a slight advantage to Herbert. But that's not the real issues with size. Taller QB's see the field better and tend to do better at downfield throws--which is where Herbert outplayed Tua--while the smaller QB's need to see between the OL more than the taller QB's do. The muscle is more of a metric of durability, and I'd say that both Tua and Herbert passed the rookie durability test as rookies, whereas Joe Burrow was injured and that was a major problem for the Bengals.

No, sorry, the statistics show that Tua was the least accurate of the three rookies. Tua's completion % was 64.1%, which was lower than Burrow's 65.3% and Herbert's 66.6% so while Tua may prove to be more accurate, as a rookie, he was the least accurate of the three. I am confident that Tua will prove to be an accurate QB. That is not an area where I really worry about Tua's game--particularly with the short passes.

So there are two primary types of QB's in the NFL, the old model is the big pocket passer who can take a hit, and I'd say guys like Big Ben and Phillip Rivers are examples of that type. The newer and more modern type of QB is more mobile and with that comes sacrificing some size, and I'd say guys like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson are examples of that type. A great example of that type would have been RGIII, but one lower body injury and he was never the same QB. Tua is not the elite runner those guys are, and he's not a big tough guy either. I do worry about his durability though. He didn't challenge the middle of the field on intermediate throws because of his low velocity, but maybe he's just not seeing it as well yet. Sometimes it takes a while for young QB's to adjust to the speed of the NFL and the complexity of defenses and playbooks. I suspect when he has a proper offseason (not a Covid-wierd one) and a fully healed hip, his velocity will return and his confidence and processing speed will improve significantly. But based on year one ... he's definitely behind the other guys, despite having by far the better defense and when he was having a bad game he was pulled. He will not have that luxury next year, so let's all hope he makes those improvements.

You know what... **** it you're right! The Fins offense made incredible strides this season and Tua not so much.... Burrow and Herbert are incredibly more accurate and "its not even close" as they're as much as 1.5% better...

Tua is is holding back this incredibly improved offense... You got me...

 

[fishbanger]

2 things to add for 2020
Tua 1-0 against Hebert
TUA 1-0 against Patriots
Hebert against Patriots 45 -0
Hebert did go into overtime with Chiefs in his first game 20-20
TUA scored 17 points in one quarter against Chiefs with no RBs, no WRs, and rookie lineman and backup lineman

 

[Digital]

Maybe Brady after a few NFL seasons was able to put on some weight/muscle along with improving his arm strength but Brady the prospect did not have good size unless you are solely referring to his height.

--Poor build
--Skinny
--Lacks great physical stature and strength
--Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush
--Lacks a really strong arm
--Can’t drive the ball downfield
--Does not throw a really tight spiral
--System-type player who can get exposed if forced to ad lib
--Gets knocked down easily

Well I was primarily talking about height, yes. It not only helps visions but it also helps with throwing velocity. Brady had a lively arm, maybe not the best, but a strong one. A weak arm was not one of his big drawbacks. But as you so correctly pointed out ... ahem ... he didn't really work on his body muscle/tone and his overall upper body strength was lacking. Generally this is indicative of a lazy player, but in Brady's case ... it wasn't. Once he realized that he needed to do those things, he fixed them. Maybe if he had fixed them coming out of high school he would have been a 1st round pick rather than a 6th rounder?

Not sure where you found this scouting report, but it looks pretty good except for under-valuing his arm strength. Man ... I wish this scouting report had been accurate ... we might have enjoyed the last couple decades a LOT more.

 

[Digital]

You know what... **** it you're right! The Fins offense made incredible strides this season and Tua not so much.... Burrow and Herbert are incredibly more accurate and "its not even close" as they're as much as 1.5% better...

Tua is is holding back this incredibly improved offense... You got me...

How about we just agree to disagree. If you want to revisit this in a future year when we have more data, I'm game. No disrespect intended. No hard feelings. Let's move on.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I think its a fair assesment of Tua's rookie year.

Very fair. I wanted to draft Tua. I didn't necessarily care if he played in 2020. Once he did play I wasn't concerned about the Rams game in the slightest. I was sure he'd bounce back against the Cardinals, who were already somewhat fraudulent.

Beyond that the processing was poor and physical traits shockingly subpar. When drafted I was expecting several gorgeous mid to deep balls per game. Instead we're scrambling to identify a handful.

I don't see it as a contradiction to believe in Tua but also want to draft Zach Wilson if available. Again, what good is a Top 10 quarterback? You're already relying on outliers if you settle for that level.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I don't know how you can cite how easy Tua had it at Alabama without acknowledging Burrow's weapons at LSU. Jefferson looks like the best WR from the 2020 class, and Chase may be the best from 2021. Edwards-Helaire was also a 1st RD pick, and Terrace Marshall was the 1st-ranked WR coming out of HS.

 

[NBP81]

Very fair. I wanted to draft Tua. I didn't necessarily care if he played in 2020. Once he did play I wasn't concerned about the Rams game in the slightest. I was sure he'd bounce back against the Cardinals, who were already somewhat fraudulent.

Beyond that the processing was poor and physical traits shockingly subpar. When drafted I was expecting several gorgeous mid to deep balls per game. Instead we're scrambling to identify a handful.

I don't see it as a contradiction to believe in Tua but also want to draft Zach Wilson if available. Again, what good is a Top 10 quarterback? You're already relying on outliers if you settle for that level.

I agree with taking shots until you find an elite QB although I would like some spacing between shots if not only for cap implications and practical reasons. When you're picking a QB high for the 2nd year in a row, you're essentially drafting a backup. When you give your QB a couple of years before you draft another one high, you drafting a replacement. Sounds trivial but in back to back years, you're folding alot of value based on limited information.

Waiting a couple of years gives you a better picture of what you already have and also extends your rookie contract window. Also hopefully by that time, the offense is a more welcoming environement for a rookie QB. What makes this difficult to pass up is the fact the Fins have the #3 pick, which is something thats not likely to happen in the next couple of years but if planned, Fins could keep on using their assets to solidify future drafts to at least put themselves in position to make a move if need be.

If I were to draft a QB 2 years in a row, I'd use a pick in the 2nd-3rd round for the second one. This is par value for a backup and Im much more likely to gain/retain value down the road. IMO

All that being said, I like the strategy, I'd just implement it in a diffferent way.

 

[SCOTTY]

Tuas ceiling revolves around his ability to process information

I don’t think there’s any doubt about that

some physical strides this offseason would be big too. Nothing crazy but more hip torque more shoulder and core strength. Maximize what you have.

I expect Tua to put on about 15 lbs training this off season.

 

[BlueFin]

What a cute attempt! All those words that basically says no to Herbert! The Chargers record is my proof. You haven’t offered anything beyond long paragraphs. Still love ya!

How many games does Tua win without our defense?

Digital made great points.

I would have drafted Herbert...and I swap them right now!

 

[Namor]

I expect Tua to put on about 15 lbs training this off season.

I don't think he needs weight,as much as regaining more flexibility and torque in the hip area....that will help with his throws.
Looked to be guiding throws,instead of slinging later in the year.
I know this kid is working on it..